Reform of the political system of Russia or ...?

First, about the proposed changes to the Constitution of the Russian Federation and possible reasons for their nomination.

1. Transfer of part of the president’s powers to the State Duma (State Duma): Parliament will receive the right to approve the candidacy of the head of government, his deputies, and federal ministers. The President is obliged to approve the proposed candidates, not having the right to reject them. However, he will retain the right to remove any official in case of loss of confidence, to lead the armed forces, appointing the leaders of the security departments in agreement with the Federation Council. The question arises: is Putin going to remain president after 2024?

2. If it is not, the proposal to expand significantly the powers of the State Duma becomes clear - now the deliberative (advisory) body under the president, created by Putin 20 years ago by decree. There is a strong opinion that Putin likes to keep all possible options “in reserve”. Then  the introduction of the powers of the  State Duma in the Constitution (and the appointment of D. Medvedev its Deputy) is probably one of those options in which the Chairman of the State Duma will be the future head of the country, if the option with a union state (Russia - Belarus) fails. It should be noted that this option is much more preferable than when the head of state is the prime minister, whose main responsibility is the economy - the traditionally lame area of ​​government trusteeship in Russia. In short, Putin creates several centers of power with trusted people at the head, between whom he can maneuver.

3. Could there be some clarity on Putin’s proposal to discuss the deletion of the word “in a row” in the constitutional provision on the possibility of being elected president of Russia for no more than two terms? Recall that it was the word “in a row” in the Basic Law that allowed Putin to take up the presidency again in 2012 (after two terms in 2000–2008). It is difficult to answer unequivocally, since the “proposal” in the end can be rejected (like some other innovations!) By the working group to develop amendments to the Constitution.

3. Could there be some clarity on Putin’s proposal to discuss the deletion of the word “in a row” in the constitutional provision on the possibility of being elected president of Russia for no more than two terms? Recall that it was the word “in a row” in the Basic Law that allowed Putin to take up the presidency again in 2012 (after two terms in 2000–2008). It is difficult to answer unequivocally, since the “proposal” in the end can be rejected (like some other innovations!) By the working group to develop amendments to the Constitution.

4. With the selfless love of the political (including opposition) elite of Russia for dual citizenship, the “logical” proposal seems to be the proposal to prescribe in the Constitution a requirement for a presidential candidate to reside in Russia for at least 25 years. The absence of foreign citizenship or residence permit residence in another country (not only at the time of participation in the election, but also at any time earlier). This, however, does not remove the questions: Will such a law be a form of struggle against influential political opponents? Will those who have such citizenship be excluded from the ruling political elite? Is it possible to consider the proposal as a desire to rally the political elite around itself?

5. What the proposal consolidating the priority of the Constitution of Russia over international law is aimed at. According to it, the requirements of international law and sentences, as well as decisions of international bodies can act on the territory of Russia only to the extent that they do not contradict the Constitution, which will guarantee the sovereignty of the country? The answer may be related to the position of the United States, the political system of which Moscow often likes to (sometimes thoughtlessly) copy. As soon as Russia advances into a superpower, the question of the priority of law becomes self-evident. A more prosaic goal is not ruled out - ignoring the annoying decisions of European courts of various instances.

6. As for the “domestic” courts, it is proposed to provide for the powers of the Federation Council on the proposal of the President of Russia to remove from the posts of judges of the Constitutional and Supreme Courts. What will happen in a hypothetical situation when, say, the Federation Council decides to remove some representative of these courts from office because of “loss of confidence”, and the president stubbornly refuses such a representation?

7. For the whole package of constitutional amendments, for some reason, it is proposed to hold a vote of citizens, rather than a referendum, although some amendments can be approved by the legislature. Here, as they say, you should wait for the decisions of the working group (lawyers and public figures) to develop amendments to the Constitution, the published composition of which will immediately determine the quality of these decisions.

8. Of obvious interest is the proposal to integrate self-government into the system of state power, since it has two contradictory consequences - further hierarchization and centralization of power or the endowment of municipalities with attributes of autonomous power.

The International Organization Human Rights Watch released the annual World Report 2020 on the situation of human rights. The report noted that "the situation with human rights in Russia has remained negative," with, with rare exceptions, "the state’s reaction to the growing civic activism was repressive in nature and boiled down to prohibitions, toughening legislation and politically motivated administrative and criminal prosecutions. ”

After Putin’s message, events developed as follows: the Russian government, led by Prime Minister D. Medvedev, resigned, and the president urgently nominated Mikhail Mishustin, head of the Federal Tax Service, to the post of new prime minister. At the same time, D. Medvedev was transferred to the post of Deputy General Director, retaining the post of leader of United Russia. A very interesting combination, taking into account the upcoming elections in 2021 to the State Duma and the unprecedented decline in the prestige of the ruling party.

All these events, possibly by accident, are timed to coincide with the 20th anniversary of Vladimir Putin's stay as the leader of the Russian state.

I must say that the world is polar divided in assessing the achievements of the political marathon runner. For some, the Russian leader not only strengthened his power, but also revived the image of Russia as a world power. Someone believes that he is personally responsible for the annexation of Crimea, shadow participation in the military conflict in the Donbass, restriction of civil liberties, independent presses and the persecution of the opposition, a significant slowdown in a market economy and democracy.

Outspoken opponents - US political scientists - say that the Russian leader has taken on the design of the mechanism for his indefinite stay in power, and the initiatives proposed by him hid the consolidation of authoritarianism in Russia and the desire to keep everything under personal control. Therefore, the "Message 2020" is a recorded certificate of the end of the experiment to establish democracy in Russia, begun in the 1990s. "

Even opponents are forced to agree that Putin remains popular among the people, despite economic problems and a decline in living standards in the country: economic growth has slowed in Russia, and the decisions of recent years to raise the retirement age and increase the VAT tax have been very unpopular among the population.

It is no coincidence that in the first part of his message Putin highlighted some economic and social problems. He touched upon the issues of demography, economic growth, and the fight against poverty. The president, in particular, promised to extend the program of financial assistance to parents at the birth of their first child. He also reported on new benefits for children from three to seven years old in families with financial difficulties, and on free meals for primary school students.

Journalists - supporters of Putin note that, as a competent politician, he first solved the issue of external security, and then addressed the problems of reform of the political system and economic growth. The solution to the first question led to the fact that “for the first time in the history of the existence of nuclear missile weapons, including the Soviet period, and modern times, we are not catching anyone, but on the contrary, other leading states of the world have yet to create the weapons that Russia already possesses."

We can only evaluate the predictive accuracy of the conclusion that one of the Russian journalists cited: “Putin will remain the national leader after 2024, but it is important for him that the country's political system be built up reliably and balanced, not be ossified, and be able to reconfigure its mechanisms. She worked both with his participation and supervision, and without him. Putin thinks strategically - for decades, not for years to come. He does not care about his own future, but about creating the conditions for the successful and stable development of Russia. The basis of which will be the harmony of a strong power and the well-being of people who love their Fatherland”...