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Negotiations on Karabakh resumed, but what are they about?
As can be seen, despite the radical statements and demands of Pashinyan that
- He will not conduct endless negotiations for the sake of negotiations;
- That the Armenians of Karabakh should become part of the negotiation process;
- That "Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be a part of Azerbaijan, if someone does not want to allow the new genocide of the Armenian people to take place" the negotiation process will continue.
What did the parties to the conflict agree about? What is the settlement plan on the table?
The so-called "Madrid Principles" (2007) - a phased settlement plan with a delayed decision on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh; with the involvement of international peacekeeping forces from countries outside the Minsk Group, did not work. Armenia rejected this plan, and Azerbaijan reacted to it with suspicion. Another attempt by the OSCE Minsk Group to reconcile the parties failed. And here a voice from Moscow sounded with a new force, that the Karabakh issue will and can only be solved in Moscow.
According to the Russian plan (or Lavrov's plan), Armenians should liberate several occupied Azerbaijani areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, and so that Karabakh Armenians no longer fear further attacks by the Azerbaijani army, Russian peacekeeping forces will be placed on the new line of contact.
Placing Russian troops in the region between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is the essence of their plan and the main concern of Moscow! With this maneuver, Moscow can tie Armenia and Azerbaijan to itself for a long time. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan will be able to get out of the influence of Russia, and will not be able to turn to Europe taking with him Nagorno-Karabakh.
Such a simple plan has already been applied in Georgia, when Russian peacekeepers were deployed on the border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And since then, these lands have been lost for Georgia.
So, here is the plan that is being discussed at the talks between Azerbaijan and the new government of Armenia. All other details of the plan are not fundamental.
The conflicting parties, of course, have serious amendments to this plan. We can safely assume that Armenia, in exchange for the liberation of several occupied Azerbaijani regions, wants to immediately get the independence of Karabakh; Azerbaijan can demand not Russian, but international peacekeeping forces.
But the worst will happen if the current Azerbaijani government allows the deployment (more precisely, the return) the Russian army on its territory, hoping that Moscow will in one form or another allow Azerbaijan to restore its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. And, what is equally important for the current government, Moscow will become the guarantor of the current regime"s eternal residence in power.
With high probability we can say that in this case:
a) Nagorno-Karabakh will be lost for Azerbaijan for a long time, if not forever;
b) The sovereignty of Azerbaijan - its foreign, domestic and economic policies will be constantly blackmailed by the threat of irreversible loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, just as it happened in Georgia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Caucasus
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In a bid to alleviate longstanding regional tensions, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has announced that his country is prepared to serve as a mediator in peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, should the two neighbors express interest. Speaking in an interview with Georgia’s First Channel, Kobakhidze emphasized Georgia’s willingness to play an active role in facilitating dialogue between Baku and Yerevan.
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Four years have passed since the 44-day war, which ended Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories, fundamentally altering the balance of power and reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. While negotiations are ongoing, a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive.
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The EU's High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission issued a joint statement regarding the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia. The document, published by the European External Action Service (EEAS), underscores the need to address election shortcomings and enhance transparency to build trust in Georgia’s democratic process. The essence of the document indicates that the elections in Georgia took place, and it is necessary to promptly address the shortcomings and bring clarity to establish trust in the electoral process.
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The meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, held in Istanbul on October 18, 2024, marked another step in ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the two countries. This meeting took place for the first time on the regional cooperation platform known as "3+3."
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