As can be seen, despite the radical statements and demands of Pashinyan that

- He will not conduct endless negotiations for the sake of negotiations;

- That the Armenians of Karabakh should become part of the negotiation process;

- That "Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be a part of Azerbaijan, if someone does not want to allow the new genocide of the Armenian people to take place" the negotiation process will continue.

What did the parties to the conflict agree about? What is the settlement plan on the table?

The so-called "Madrid Principles" (2007) - a phased settlement plan with a delayed decision on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh; with the involvement of international peacekeeping forces from countries outside the Minsk Group, did not work. Armenia rejected this plan, and Azerbaijan reacted to it with suspicion. Another attempt by the OSCE Minsk Group to reconcile the parties failed. And here a voice from Moscow sounded with a new force, that the Karabakh issue will and can only be solved in Moscow.

According to the Russian plan (or Lavrov's plan), Armenians should liberate several occupied Azerbaijani areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, and so that Karabakh Armenians no longer fear further attacks by the Azerbaijani army, Russian peacekeeping forces will be placed on the new line of contact.

Placing Russian troops in the region between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is the essence of their plan and the main concern of Moscow! With this maneuver, Moscow can tie Armenia and Azerbaijan to itself for a long time. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan will be able to get out of the influence of Russia, and will not be able to turn to Europe taking with him Nagorno-Karabakh.

Such a simple plan has already been applied in Georgia, when Russian peacekeepers were deployed on the border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And since then, these lands have been lost for Georgia.

So, here is the plan that is being discussed at the talks between Azerbaijan and the new government of Armenia. All other details of the plan are not fundamental.

The conflicting parties, of course, have serious amendments to this plan. We can safely assume that Armenia, in exchange for the liberation of several occupied Azerbaijani regions, wants to immediately get the independence of Karabakh; Azerbaijan can demand not Russian, but international peacekeeping forces.

But the worst will happen if the current Azerbaijani government allows the deployment (more precisely, the return) the Russian army on its territory, hoping that Moscow will in one form or another allow Azerbaijan to restore its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. And, what is equally important for the current government, Moscow will become the guarantor of the current regime"s eternal residence in power.

With high probability we can say that in this case:

a) Nagorno-Karabakh will be lost for Azerbaijan for a long time, if not forever;

b) The sovereignty of Azerbaijan - its foreign, domestic and economic policies will be constantly blackmailed by the threat of irreversible loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, just as it happened in Georgia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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Грузия меняет западную ориентацию и идет на сближение с Россией? - беседа с экспертом по Кавказу Вадимом Дубновым в программе "Çətin sual"

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