Armenian experts on Lavrov’s project and the future of Pashinyan’s government

Baku/14.05.20/Turan: The well-known statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on a phased settlement of the Karabakh conflict made in April still excites and frightens Armenian society, which rightly regarded it as a threat and warning to Moscow. The reason for this statement in Yerevan is considered Pashinyan’s erroneous policy towards the Kremlin. Most of the comments and analyzes of recent days are connected with the criticism of Pashinyan, rather than an analysis of the changing geopolitical situation.

Thus, the head of the “Modus Vivendi” center Ara Papyan in an interview with Epress.am noted with alarm that Lavrov was the first to refer to UN Security Council resolutions and to the document proposed by Moscow last April suggesting a phased version.

According to Lavrov, the basis of negotiations is the principle of "territory in exchange for nothing." If before it was “territory in exchange for status”, then “territory in exchange for peace”, now it is “territory in exchange for nothing”. That is, you give away the territories around the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and then you wait for what will happen next.

The core of the Lavrov’s plan is the entry of Russian peacekeepers to the border with Iran, Papyan said, noting that Moscow could “bargain” Washington’s consent for this. He criticized the Pashinyan government for inadequately assessing the situation.

The prime minister’s long-standing enemy David Shahnazaryan spoke more sharply, who called the position of the Armenian government a betrayal. He is convinced that a phased settlement is being discussed, five districts will be returned to Azerbaijan, and Karabakh will receive a temporary status. All this will be fixed in the document, and the referendum will be postponed for the future, he said in an interview with News.am

He accused Pashinyan of inconsistency, incompetence and lies. Lavrov also recorded the historically lowest level of Armenian-Russian relations today, Shahnazaryan said.

“This was a warning that if the Armenian government continues to hide reality from society, then Russia will begin to speak with Armenian society itself. Lavrov didn’t speak on his own behalf, he spoke on behalf of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and represented the unanimous opinion of the co-chairing countries, which was too unexpected for the Armenian authorities,” said Shahnazaryan, adding that Armenia was completely defeated in international relations. Thus, France, historically close to Armenia, implements large-scale programs in the military-technical sphere with Azerbaijan. He also called it a shame that official Yerevan did not respond to Lavrov.

Economist Suren Sahakyan in an interview with Arminfo emphasized the drop in the rating of the Pashinyan team against the backdrop of "unpopular reforms." Achievements in the form of the liberation of electoral processes from the dictates of money and “authorities”, the reduction of corruption, the elimination of the shadow economy, still allow the support of the population. However, the number of frustrated citizens is growing and Pashinyan mistakenly thinks that these are only those who were “torn from the feeding trough”.

The head of the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, in his article “Post-revolutionary Armenia: a new generation, old problems” predicts the steps of the government: after the quarantine is lifted, the government will still be popular to reform the judicial system and eliminate the old elites in the judicial and other branches of government.

According to Iskandaryan, the Pashinyan government will face a new opposition in the person of the counter-elite that came from the streets. “This is not an organization, but a decentralized social environment, united by discontent.”

Replacing old-fashioned hated officials with popular young ones, holding legal elections and trying to comply with the law are not enough, Iskandaryan believes. -02B-