Blown up Lebanon

While at Lebanon a few years ago, the author, God willing, described this fabulous cedarn country as a junction between Arab East and European West with their unique mergence of great cultures and inimitable geographical area that united peoples of varying nationalities and confessions (1)

Regretfully, today’s romantic halo of Lebanese capital – Beirut has fallen into oblivion. An unanswered August high-level explosion at the port did change not only image of the capital but mode of life of thousands of city-folk as well. A vast number of victims are all civilians that lost their homes and lodgings. Civilians without jobs and means of subsistence.

It must be conceded that the aid has already been delivered to Beirut residents; however, we are witnessing developments, inside and around Lebanon, capable of changing radically the reality of Lebanon. But first things first. 

Not long before explosion

In March 2020 Lebanon proclaimed default on Eurobonds. Prime Minister of the country, Hasan Diab who had earlier stated that «corruption has exhausted the country», stressed Beirut’s inability to pay off $1, 2 billion-worth Eurobonds due to the fall of currency reserves up to the critical level. «How can we pay off to creditors abroad if the Lebanese cannot get their money from banking accounts?» he exclaims. Note that by that time the national debt of Lebanon reached a level of 170% of GDP (2).

A July visit of French Foreign Minister Jean-Ives Le Drian to Lebanon finalized talks between the Lebanese authorities and the IMF get help and reform the electric energy sector. In so doing, he voiced France’s preparedness «to render assistance provided that decisions will be adopted by political authorities»(3). However, in the course of government deliberations H. Diab declared that the French Foreign Minister had arrived in Beirut empty-handed and «took an interest in measures of the Lebanese authorities to get out of profound economic crisis» (aa.com.tr)

Explosion

According to Reuters media sources, «a report of the Chief State Security Department on the Beirut port explosion refers to a private letter addressed to President Michel Aoun and H. Diab on July 20». In spite of the fact that the letter contents is missing in the report, a top security service officer said that «it summarized results of a January court investigation that stressed the necessity of immediate disposal of chemicals». True, the Reuters report noted that agency officers «failed to reaffirm the fact of writing and sending such a letter» (4).

Quite apart from peculiar eastern delicacies of a certain secreted letter, it’d be appropriate to pay attention to the fact that all ministers of the Lebanese government tendered their resignation to get on with their duties until a new government was formed.

In the meanwhile, the whole social medium insists on economic crisis in the country caused not by objective reasons but the corruption and total nepotism of higher echelons of power irrespective of national and confessional affiliation.

Trial balloons within country’s external control

It should be remembered that against this backdrop the external forces have begun, openly and between the lines, exploring the ground over Lebanon’s transformation into a colony (in the modern sense though). Groundbreaker on this track became French President Emmanuel Macron. A day before his visit to Lebanon, on August 5, there was a petition in the country that reiterated «total disability of the authorities to ensure country’s security and control the situation». «Carried away by ineffective system of management, corruption, terrorism and militia, - the petition stressed, - Lebanon has arrived at its finger-tips, so we think that the country has to fall back under the French mandate to thus establish pure and lasting management»(5).

There is no need in detailing about why and who inspired the petition. It is essential to note that the petition was signed by more than 60,000. While at Lebanon, the head of the French state laid an emphasis on «a new political pact» that included provisions as follows: declaration of Beirut as a demilitarized zone; complete disarmament of al offices and branches of «Hezbollah» in Beirut and its suburbs; transfer of the international Beirut airport to a joint international contingent headed by Germany; deployment of UNIFIL in Beirut and Lebanese mountains and war vessels in coastal waters, from Beirut to southern borders of the country, etc. (6).

A kind of «neocolonial manifest of E. Macron being demonstrably approved his western partners enabled some experts to declare about attempts of parties concerned to bring Lebanon back to the zone of French mandate. The point is about Lebanon’s keeping in sync within the framework of actually official, colonial curation of France to comply with decisions of the French-British conference in San-Remo (1920 ) approved by the League of Nations in 1923. In so doing, the French President made his country’s aid to Lebanon not merely dependent upon implementation of real, large-scale reforms but control of western donors as well. It is obvious that in the nearest future the IMF - talks are currently underway between Beirut and the IMF – will read out the same demands for starting tranche.

As a whole, Beirut has addressed challenges of external management of the country to been successful in meeting challenges to give no way on the French proposals (at the present stage though). Besides, M. Aoun disagreed with demands on international investigation of the explosion, since this investigation involves «loss of time only while legal proceedings should proceed rapidly and yet unhurriedly» (7).

It is worth reminding that the European activity in the Lebanese vector must remain in the purview of major regional actors who, in turn, have made a number of interesting steps.

Turkish interest 

On August 8, Vice-President of Turkey Fuat Oktay voiced Ankara’s preparedness «to build up a strongly damaged port in Beirut and nearest buildings». In so doing, he declared that prior to the port’s commissioning Turkey provided Lebanon with opportunity to use a port in Mersin (8).

It has to be kept in mind that relations between Lebanon and Turkey are far from perfect as was evidenced by last year events. In particular, in August 2019 the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusogly visited Lebanon, met with country’s top officials characterizing it as friendly for Ankara (aa.com.tr). However, on September 3, in a speech on the anniversary of the state of Lebanon, М. Aoun stated that «all attempts to get rid of Ottoman yoke ended in violence, killings and confrontation on confessional basis». In his words, «state terrorism of Ottomans against the Lebanese in the World War I, oppressions and hunger led to deaths of hundreds of thousands.  This notwithstanding, the frustration of Ottomans in the end of the World War I and the start of French influence spreading  in the country marked a new era in our history»(9).

In response, the Turkish Foreign Ministry harshly condemned and rejected «subjective charges of the Lebanese President against the Ottoman Empire who distorted historical realities and ignored «a period of colonial rule with its roots of modern Lebanon». Instead, he tried to put responsibility for Lebanese problems on the Ottoman period of history which is none other than a tragic glorification of colonialism» (aa.com.tr).

Thus, relations between Ankara and Beirut are rather problematic; however, the latest foreign political steps of Turkey in the Syrian, Libyan, Iraqi and South Caucasian directions are clearly indicative of the fact that the Turkish interest in Libyan factor remains to be essential to manifest itself sooner or later.

In the meantime there is not far away, uncompromising and sanctions-proof Iran.

Iranian interest

Chairman of a national security and foreign policy commission of Iranian Majlis, Modjtab Zonnuri stated that «support by the Islamic Republic of Iran of the government, people and resistance of Lebanon will be accompanied by humanitarian aid to meet country’s basic infrastructure needs»(10).

In the meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry official representative Abbas Musavi openly demonstrated Teheran’s understanding of intra- and around Lebanon developments (this refers to anti-governmental and pro-western slogans at Beirut meetings): «It is obvious that people are dissatisfied with current events; however, groups are provoked from abroad for a definite purpose»(11).

Beyond any doubt, the two statements cited above are illustrative of Teheran’s particular interest in Lebanon, especially as none of external parties can ignore intra-Lebanese factor of «Hezbollah».

Israeli interest

Straight after the Beirut port explosion Israel offered a humanitarian aid but the Diab government rejected the offer (12). The response of official Beirut was anticipated. The same was anticipated about Israel’s aspiration to keep an eye on all possible developments around Lebanon.

At the same time, there is no getting away from factors untypical for countries caring for Lebanon. Of interest is the fact that this circumstance has not practically been dealt with by experts. The question is about «religious right of Jews» to the Lebanese territory. Suffice it to cite the Electronic Jewish Encyclopedia (EJE) : «the Bible describes Lebanese mountains as Levanon (more frequently as Ha-Levanon) which, together with a part of the coast, were meant to become a part of north-western land of the Tribe of Israel». It is usually followed by reference to Torah (13).

 «If you obey all laws and love your God and follow His path, then God will expel all peoples, and you will own peoples stronger than you are; any place you set foot on will be yours – from the desert and Lebanon, from river of Euphrates to the western sea; all of these will be your limits and nobody will be able to cope with you: Your God will put a scare into anybody’s land you set foot on, He told you» (Deuteronomy 11:22-25). However, the Electronic Jewish Encyclopedia notes that no territory of Lebanon was conquered. True, it does not specify whether it happened due to nonobservance of God’s commandments or other reasons (13).

At any rate, the religious format will remain religious; however, there are other nuances, first of all, political and economic ones to aggravate relations between the two countries. For example, remains unsettled a dispute over sea borders between Israel and Lebanon. Thus, it was reported in the end of 2019 on Israel’s oil and gas data harvesting over territorial waters of Lebanon. In particular, some journalists informed that Israel has been gathering information about oi and gas resources on disputed water areas. This circumstance egged «the Lebanese authorities on urgently raising the issue at the UNO». As viewed by analysts, sea reserves of natural gas in Lebanon on an area of 22, 000 sq km  make up 96 trillion cubic meters and oil– 865 million barrels (aa.com.tr).

It speaks for itself.

Conclusion

Thus, even a hurried glance at the facts above is indicative that when dealt with Lebanon the foreign forces are eager to kick around a concept of country’s external management. Beyond any doubt, it is not talked of the return to the format of the bankrupt colonial system of the 20 century. However, ideas of colonialism are still uncrushable and might be applied to modern conditions. But it remains unknown whether terms «mandate» or «protectorate» will be used.

The probability remains that a certain «stylish» definition will become operational.   

The thing is that the pandemic has enveloped the globe with its strong tentacles to drive the world toward political-economic collapse as a crucial step toward world reformatting. Small, medium and large businesses are shipwrecked; enterprises and even branches of economy formerly on the upgrade are crumbling away. Next in turn are separate countries though hardly anybody owns to this. 

So all we are watching in Lebanon is not spontaneous. Most probably, It is not be astonishing if the so-called financial coercion would be applied to official Beirut by some geopolitical centers.

If this occurs, official Lebanese authorities will have to adopt new rules of the game. True, for this to happen, external forces must, first of all, reach an agreement with each other. Allowing for the facts quoted above, we are witnessing circular firing squad, the fact that plays into the hands of Lebanon. However, a negative experience of civil wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya goes to show unless external actors agree one with another, a domestic fire will thrill a country of their interest.

It should be recognized that Lebanon has had this experience already to sustain great losses. That’s why Beirut will be forced to make grandmaster steps to avoid being involved in blood-letting civilian confrontation.

Teymur Atayev

1.Teymur Atayev. Interweaving of cross and half-moon as essential background of the Lebanese reality

http://idrak.org.az/n/ru/100/11/2017/23

2.Tom Perry, Ellen Francis. Declaring it cannot pay debts, Lebanon sets stage for default

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-crisis-idUSKBN20U0DH?taid=5e639e8038da270001fffec3

3.France lays claims to Lebanon

https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3019318.html

4.Samia Nakhoul, Laila Bassam. Exclusive: Lebanon's leaders were warned in July about explosives at port - documents

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-security-blast-documents-excl/exclusive-lebanons-leaders-warned-in-july-about-explosives-at-port-documents-idUKKCN2562L3

5.Place Lebanon under French mandate for the next 10 years.

https://secure.avaaz.org/community_petitions/en/emanuel_macron_place_lebanon_under_french_mandate_for_the_next_10_years_/

6.Large-scale protests in Lebanon lead to the restitution of the French mandate

https://riafan.ru/1300584-masshtabnye-protesty-v-livane-vedut-k-vozvrasheniyu-francuzskogo-mandata

7. President of Lebanon: demands on international investigation of the explosion lead to the loss of time

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9155383

8.Cumhurbaşkanı Yardımcısı Oktay: Mersin Limanı'mızın Lübnan'ın hizmetinde olacağını ifade ettik

https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/cumhurbaskani-yardimcisi-oktay-mersin-limanimizin-lubnanin-hizmetinde-olacagini-ifade-ettik/1935422

9. President of Lebanon: Ottomans staged a public terror in our country

https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2706748.html

10.Zonnuri: Iran maintains stability and security in Lebanon

https://parstoday.com/ru/news/world-i117036

11. Iran stated that some protesters in Lebanon were supported from abroad

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9160115

12.Pursuant to the Beirut explosion: Lebanon declined from receiving aid from Israel

https://www.vesty.co.il/main/article/SJjRqbuZv

13. Lebanon

https://eleven.co.il/diaspora/regions-and-countries/12441/