The protests in Iran are caused by internal contradictions

The end of 2017 was marked by unprecedented over the 40-year rule of the mullahs in Iran by massive anti-regime protests that covered the capital and several cities of the country. In 2009, protests were broader, but they became a reaction to the results of the presidential election, when the opposition refused to recognize the victory of the current conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accusing the authorities of falsification. Of course, implicitly this was a manifestation of the choice of part of the Iranian society of the liberal-reformist path of development. But still it was an openly expressed domestic political struggle of the liberal and conservative currents of Iran, which aggravated during the elections.

The current protests, which started on December 28 and lasted less than a week, became an open expression not of any political group or trend, but a focal expression of the mood of the entire Iranian society and its attitude to the regime, and the desire for change. Mass protests began with socio-economic demands, and even very soon grew into a political "No" clerical regime.

The authorities of Iran blamed for the protests the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and others, saying that the events were prepared and inspired from outside. This interpretation still remains the main one, but it cannot stand criticism. The chronicle of events and the actions of the highest structures and individuals of Iran show that the events were spontaneous by nature and were an emotional manifestation of the latent moods of Iranian society - namely, the fatigue of the clerical regime and the desire for real secular democracy.

Spontaneity

Iran has a strong branched intelligence network, which is woven by such structures as the Ministry of Information (political intelligence), military intelligence, political and military-political intelligence, the Law Enforcement Force (military-political intelligence.) But on the eve of the events, the Iranian secret services reporting to the Supreme National Security Council did not inform about the protests being prepared, made no arrests and did not carry out any countermeasures.

Just the day before, from December 10 to 15, for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, a western pop group from Germany Schiller performed with a concert. What also suggests that the authorities were not ready for protests.

Blocking the social network Instagram and the telegram messenger began only three days after the start of the protests - on December 31.

Until January 1, Iran's top leadership justified the legitimate right of protesters and called for holding rallies under a law that guaranteed freedom of assembly.

At a meeting of the Cabinet on December 31, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani condemned the violence and damage to public property, but urged the government to "create opportunities for legitimate criticism and protests." He also called Iran a free country, in which everyone has the right to his own opinion.

However, on the fifth day of the protests, when it became clear that they had a local character, the regime led the offensive in three directions well-known in the world and characteristic of all authoritarian regimes - physical repression, ideological campaign and search for an external enemy for the mobilization of the masses.

On January 1, at an extraordinary meeting of parliament, Rouhani accused the third countries, first of all Saudi Arabia, of organizing anti-government demonstrations in Iran. "The enemy always awaits a suitable opportunity to penetrate the country and damage the Iranian people," said Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei on January 2.

Following this, on January 3, Iran's Attorney General Jafar Montazeri issued a detailed version of the "external trace". According to her, the developer of the conspiracy, called the "Doctrine of Consistent Convergence," was an American citizen named Michael Andrea, a former CIA official responsible for combating terrorism. To organize the unrest in Iran, he created a certain group. At the same time, Andrea worked in conjunction with an Israeli officer, who, for his part, was associated with the Mossad; and Saudi Arabia paid for everything, Montazery added.

Conspiracy

To strengthen the version and create the ground for further repression, outlawed groups were included in the circle of conspirators: Mojaheddine Khalk, monarchist regime followers, nationalists, communists, and others. But this version does not stand up to criticism. If the Iranian authorities were aware of the protests being prepared, why did not they prevent them in information or in an operational manner.

Organized pro-government speeches began on January 3, which also indicates that the events caught Tehran off guard and it took time for the forces to regroup, assess the situation and take decisions precisely after it became clear that the movement was spontaneous and not manageable, it can be localized without escalating into major clashes involving the people and power structures.

The position of the army is also characteristic. Iranian Defense Minister Amir Khatami said on January 1 that maintaining discipline and stability in implementing laws and social solidarity is an effective factor in realizing the demands of the people. Khatami drew attention to the need to strengthen national unity in the failure of a conspiracy of several states aimed at fomenting ethnic hatred among the Iranian people. However, in the subsequent tone of the statement of the army top was more bellicose. Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran Abdulrahim Mousavi said on January 4 that the army is ready to suppress anti-government protests if necessary.

The hand of the West is not visible

On the eve of the events, the West did not take steps to complicate the situation in Iran. Moreover, in Europe and the US, there have been actions that can be seen as supporting President Roukhani's policies. The EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Policy, Federica Mogerini, said on December 12 that the EU does not intend to dissolve the nuclear agreement with Iran. "We have been negotiating for 12 years in difficult conditions in order to achieve such a result, and now it is not possible to discuss this agreement or its separate parts," Magerini said.

In October, US President Donald Trump did not confirm the treaty on the Iranian nuclear program and gave the Congress 60 days to decide on the resumption of sanctions. Congress did not do this, after waiting for the expiration of the president's deadline - December 12.

At the same time, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noted that Trump did not recommend Congress to renew sanctions, because in fact he did not want to threaten the treaty on the atomic program.

Acceleration of reforms is the only response to protests

It can be concluded that the speeches were the result of a growing gap between the ongoing liberalization process and the continued bone structure of the regime (Islamic revolutionary ideology, corruption, widespread state interference in social and economic life, ineffective governance).

However, in this case, we should not expect a rollback. The authorities will be compelled to go on further liberal reforms, as a retreat from them will lead to a deterioration of the economic and internal political situation, the isolation of Iran with all the consequences.

Moreover, we should expect the acceleration of the process of reforms and liberalization of Iran as the only way to avoid further large-scale crises. To this, the Iranian authorities will push the conclusions of recent events: the unpreparedness at this stage of the broad masses to come out with protests on the streets, the lack of leaders and organizations capable of leading the movement. In case of delay, next time the masses, and leaders, and organizations will appear. This is the pattern of the crisis society.