American analyst: "The only winner in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been Russia"

Putin's Russia does not appear interested in either country "winning" Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Rather, Moscow seeks to preserve the mutual distraction and weakening of these former territories by keeping the conflict alive, writes American analyst James Coyle in his recent book "Russia's Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts."

Speaking before a Washington audience last week, Coyle argued Russia has a long history of interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, "especially those on its periphery." Upon examination of Moscow's foreign affairs, a pattern emerges: Kremlin encourages separatist movements, often arming or fighting on their behalf.

"The only clear winner in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been Russia, who has benefited by arms sales to belligerents on both sides," he said at Atlantic Council, an influential Washington think tank that frequently takes hawkish policy stands regarding Russia, Turan's U. S. correspondent reports.

According to Coyle, while Moscow clearly tilts towards Armenia in the South Caucasus, it has concurrently continued its role as the chief arms supplier to Azerbaijan.

As an example, he explains in his book, while the 2010 Russian-Armenian military agreement extended its Gyumri basing rights to 2044, at the same time Russia negotiated the sale of an S-300 air-defense system to Azerbaijan. "Russia delivered $1 billion worth of weapons to Baku in June 2013, bringing the total value of weapons sales since 2010 to $3-4 billion."

As a co-chair of the Minsk peace process, Moscow, Coyle says, has made sure that no other country or organization is successful in mediating a peace. "Minsk itself remains stalemated, because it is in Russia's influence to perpetuate the stalemate."

Specifically, he added, the stalemate keeps Azerbaijan weak and divided while Russia at the same tine augments its power by acquiring a diplomatic ally - Armenia. It also allows Russia to expand its military footprint by acquiring basing rights in Armenia.

Coyle is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, director of Global Education at Chapman University, and a visiting professor of public policy at Pepperdine University.

His book "Russia's Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts" examines the origins and execution of Russian military and political activities in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan.

Using a realist perspective, Coyle argues that there are substantial similarities in the four case studies: Russian support for minority separatist movements, conflict, Russian intervention as peacekeepers, Russian control over the diplomatic process to prevent resolution of the conflict, and a perpetuation of Russian presence in the area.

"Dr. Coyle places the conflicts in the context of international law and nationalism theory," said Atlantic Council's Laura Linderman.

Speaking about the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the author argues, it differs in two respects from the other conflicts he discussed in the book.

First, Russia has no peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, although the conflict provides justification for Russia to keep its troops in Armenia.

Second, these is a pronounced role of a neighboring state, not Russia, in perpetuating the conflict within Azerbaijan. Other than that, however, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ​"follows the pattern we have seen repeatedly," he writes.

Dr. Coyle previously held a variety of positions in the U.S. government, including director of Middle East Studies, U.S. Army War College.

A.Raufoglu

Washington. D.C.