“Putin needs to reassure the Russian public”

The year 2023 has been declared the "Year of the Russian Language" in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russian President Vladimir Putin, during the traditional New Year's Eve summit of CIS heads of state in St. Petersburg on December 26 and 27, called the Russian language "a force that unites multinational states."

According to official data, there are more than 300 Russian-language schools in Azerbaijan. At the same time, branches of several Russian universities operate in Azerbaijan. What goals does this decision indicate for Russia?

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli answers ASTNA's questions.

Question: 2023 has been declared the Year of the Russian Language in the CIS countries. For what purpose is this done?

Answer: With the occupation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and Ukraine's withdrawal from this structure, the "commonwealth" has lost any meaning. Earlier, in August 2008, Georgia left the structure in protest the Russian occupation. With the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the CIS entered the last period of its political life. Russia, which is in international isolation, no longer has not only global, but also regional influence as before. Russia's only consolation in these difficult days is to show its public that normal relations with the CIS countries continue. This is Putin's consolation action. At the same time, the announcement of the "Year of the Russian Language" will be the last act of farewell of the participating countries with Russia. At present, Putin needs to reassure the Russian public with such senseless decisions. And other states, creating such an opportunity for him, seek to get out of the process of the collapse of Russia without loss.

Question: Naturally, this is Russia's desire. But why do other CIS member countries have to agree with this?

Answer: Yes, this is Russia's desire. However, this decision cannot have any major political implications. Perhaps a few years ago there could have been cause for some concern, but now the circumstances are completely different. As it was said, the member countries, agreeing with such a desire of Russia, render it harmless. They try to partially neutralize aggressive behavior towards neighbors. The difficult situation faced by Russia in Ukraine and the outcome of the war will become clear soon. Not only CIS members, but also members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will not reckon with a weakened and doomed to defeat Russia.

Question: Is the announcement of the "Year of the Russian Language" in the CIS space a new obligation imposed on Azerbaijan and other CIS member countries? What might these obligations be?

Answer: This structure has not had any serious political influence since its inception. It failed to place special binding political, economic, and legal obligations on states. Although joint mechanisms were created that unite all the internal structures of states, none of them was working. For no state, the decisions of the CIS were a priority in domestic and foreign policy, in international economic and trade cooperation. The interests of the CIS were not given preference. To tell the truth, what are the specific interests of the CIS, in fact, is also unclear. This is an amorphous structure hiding behind the political and economic interests of Russia. The fate of the CIS depends on the fate of Russia. This structure cannot force member countries into any serious obligations. Just like in the Soviet Union, the language of communication in the CIS is Russian. The role of this factor in the fact that the ties of the former Soviet republics are still ongoing is great.

Question: Can Russia's imperialist policy be traced here? Why does not Russia want to give up this claim?

Answer: Naturally, Russia still has not given up its imperialist claims. It will not give up this policy so easily, especially during Putin's rule. In addition, the imperialist and nationalist ideology sits quite firmly in the subconscious of the Russian people. This change is connected with the new military-political realities and times.

But the issue is that this policy contains an ever-increasing catch for Russia. Putin's government, despite its unwillingness to abandon this policy, will be forced to do so. On the other hand, such absurd decisions of the CIS are made in order to show that Russia has not yet lost its influence in regional politics.

Question: Will Russia be able to achieve its goal or will her imperialist policy fail?

Answer: This policy has already failed. Russia is facing a coalition of the West in Ukraine, which is many times stronger than it. The economic, political, military resources of Russia cannot withstand competition with the West. The US and its allies have not succumbed to the threats of Russia, which has presented its nuclear weapons as the basis for global strategic stability. In fact, this threat did not work. Russia will pay for the aggression against Ukraine.

Question: What steps should be taken to rid Azerbaijan of Russia's policy?

Answer: Azerbaijan has already established trade and economic ties mainly with the West. Did not join the CSTO, does not need the Russian military security umbrella. Among the CIS member countries, just this country is the closest  in militarily relation to NATO standards. The deepening of the military-political alliance with Turkey, the strengthening of the organization of the Turkic states as a platform for cooperation are among the factors protecting Azerbaijan from the Russian threat. At the same time, political and diplomatic relations with the West can be considered basically normal.

It is at this difficult stage that Azerbaijan should refrain from rapprochement with one of the parties in the Russian-Western conflict. It should not take on a major role in pushing Russia out of the region. At the same time, it should not create conditions for the strengthening of Russia in the South Caucasus. The Russian-Ukrainian war will become the main factor determining the place and role of Russia in the region.