Mehman Aliyev: «Post-election period to be followed by rapprochement with the European Union»

PRAGUE---The Parliament of Azerbaijan is self-dissolved. The fact is to be taken seriously. Can changes initiated and led by the Aliyevs family be considered as an authoritative modernization? We discuss the issue with Mehman Aliev, director of the Azerbaijani information agency «Turan».

Vadim Dubnov: A decision of the Azerbaijani Parliament on self-dissolution looks like a perfect tail-piece within the framework of authoritarian modernization. Is that right?

Mehman Aliyev: Authoritarian regime can hardly be upgraded. However, current developments by the decision from above are an evolutionary process. The problem is that we deal with staff turnover, staff reshuffles in executive power that embraces all supreme structures, so the Parliament as a branch of power cannot remain in its anachronistic form. The point here is about the necessity of changing staff composition of the Parliament. In our country, MPs are traditionally appointed, not elected, so this fact has to be viewed as a process parallel to that in executive power. In other words, staff turnover will inevitably end in the interaction of the two branches at the discretion of ruling elite, I mean, in the first turn, President and Vice-President.

Vadim Dubnov: Am I correct in assuming that the dissolution of the Parliament is a certain consequence of current developments; if it is talked of some initial shifts, dismissals of the head of the Presidential Administration Ramiz Mehtiyev and Assistant to the President Ali Hasanov proved to be an end of epoch in the country?

Mehman Aliyev: These processes are interrelated. The question is that the Parliament has always been formed through the active involvement of Ramiz Mehtiyev and some oligarch ministers, in our case dismissals of persons Ali Hasanov and others of that ilk – the staff turnover of the Parliament was driven by the need to chuck out of the Parliament those having been appointed by Ramiz Mehtiyev, Ali Hasanov and other top officials. All things considered, the Parliament is meant to be staffed at the discretion of the President and Vice-President.

Vadim Dubnov: Well, we must have got to the main subject so far as we deal with Ramiz Mehtiyev. What do these shifts mean – end of epoch, beginning of quite a new structure, formation of a new elite?

Mehman Aliyev: Yes, that’s the case because in principle Ramiz Mehtiyev is the Soviet past; all the team came out of «Soviet overcoat», so the very management resembled activities and system of the Soviet communist party. The current cadre composition had largely been shaped in the post-Soviet period; these are persons with primarily modern thinking. Granting this, their thinking is somewhat different to influence the policy as well.

Vadim Dubnov: Does that mean all the myths and realities about Azerbaijani clans since the 1990s recede into the past?

Mehman Aliyev: The case has certainly some points of interest: down to here the clan issue has influenced the policy and power formation in Azerbaijan, clans struggled for power and influence. I’d say that Ramiz Mehtiyev’s dismissal and Mehriban Aliyeva’s position strengthening testify to the flip of events: Mehriban Aliyeva has no clan; nor she represents any grouping. A closer look at the team composition she is forming reveals that it is not a clan system: there are representatives of different regions; so not clan affiliation but loyalty is in the foreground. In other words, therefore we first encounter an experience of shaping non-clan system of relations in Azerbaijan, that’s rather important and interesting. Beyond any doubt, there are numerous obstacles on this track; yet, it sets the wheels in motion. I think that it will also be for the Parliament.

Vadim Dubnov: clans have been rather conventional over the past decades?

Mehman Aliyev: But these clans were made up of descendants from specific regions, say, Nakhchivan with the strongest positions; descendants from Armenia. These were the main clans that had formed as far back as under Heydar Aliyev; also, there was a Karabakh clan. Of interest is the fact that Mehriban Aliyeva gives no priority to any clan but «family»; we can say «Pashayevs»; however, we cannot say «clan». I repeat that the question is as follows: these are mostly residents from various regions; they are rather educated; shaped in terms of Baku: the capital of the country is a boiler digesting representatives of various regions to form a single nationhood.

Vadim Dubnov: What does strengthening of Mehriban Aliyeva’ s position mean? Conspirological rumors are afloat around shift of power, some transit operation. Or when it comes to actions within the framework of one mechanism or a casting within the scope of one structure?

Mehman Aliyev: I’d say that today we deal with a tandem Mehriban Aliyeva – Ilham Aliyev. This is not a mere married couple; they are team-mates, like-minded persons. Mehriban Aliyeva is instrumental in decision-making; she is a political figure with ever growing authority. The point is about security and continuity – all of us are in God’s hands; it works in favor of authority stability and redistribution of roles, for now the point is about a tandem. Some decisions can be made thereafter but everything is dependent upon the situation.

Vadim Dubnov: The personnel practice has been left at the mercy of Mehriban Alieva. Does it give grounds to review criteria of new elite formation? You said that this practice is based on loyalty criterion; however, we see that a new generation, more technocratic minded people, even more westernized persons have come?

Mehman Aliyev: In principle, it is talked of people with different views, different cultural roots; some tend toward Russia; others the West; many of them obtain extended education in European institutions; in Russia.

It is modern, more technocratic youth. It is important to emphasize that they are to take over the oligarchic system composed of ministers and oligarch functionaries. This is more apparent in Azerbaijan than in Russia because functionaries had both political and financial authority. In other words, political figures were simultaneously businessmen, i.e. it is talked of integration of capital and authority. In this case, new ministers, new appointees dispose of no qualities of this sort, i.е. they are performers only, not engaged in business activity; if engaged they are not oligarchs, that’s for sure.

Vadim Dubnov: Why is this all happening now?

Mehman Aliyev: I’d not say this occurred now; the process started in 2016 when a referendum was held and amendments nade in the Constitution. I think that was a well-thought out, strategic decision, and this is underway in stage-by-stage manner. We are unaware of palace intrigues; to all appearance, they are in a hurry and make decisions promptly.

Account has to be taken of the fact that the country is in economic crisis and faced with social problems. I’ve always insisted that the point is about the system crisis where the authorities have been late in removing reasons of the crisis believing to let things go along.

For some time past, we are witnessing that people are dissatisfied with their living conditions; also, society is active in information field, and the authorities begin to understand the current situation and haste to take some measures. However, it is rather difficult to advance through the use of the old team. In our case, it is attempted to promptly form a new political system – executive and legislative power and then crack down on active efforts, specifically radical reforms. The reforms are urgent to remedy the situation, otherwise, everything will stay that way.

Vadim Dubnov: Is it about adoptive actions or strategic reforms?

Mehman Aliyev: I thing, the one and the other.

Vadim Dubnov: A natural question here is as follows: will an administrative-bureaucratic reform involve some system advances towards liberalization of society; changes in the relations between power and society? Is any progress possible on this track?

Mehman Aliyev: The truth is that attempts of reforms have repeatedly been made but failed. We clearly understand that no changes are possible without legal protection, without information interaction between society and state … At present, there are two quite independent information fields – these are information fields to serve a huge quantity of people; social networks; governmental and public mass media.

Allowing for the facts stated above, it is essential to make serious decisions and put this system into normal position. The same is true of civil society which is disconnected from state-building, society development, etc. In other words, there are numerous problems to be solved. Note that these problems were not solved in due time, so the latest developments in Azerbaijan call for immediate and decisive actions.

By the way, you’ve just touched upon conspirological versions. Note that threats vary. For instance, I wrote an article that the Iranian party accused Azerbaijan that Israeli drones attacked from the territory of Azerbaijan military warehouses of pro-Iranian militia on the territory of Iraq, there were casualties. The Iranian party also charged Azerbaijan (The New York Times wrote about it) that its territory was used for reconnaissance purposes: drones from the territory of Azerbaijan were flying over Iran and that leaders of groupings threatened to commit acts of vengeance against Azerbaijan.

In this connection, I witnessed security measures, for the situation is very hard and strained in the region. To my thinking, all these views make it necessary to arrive at decisions that seem to be quirky and conspirological, just as you like.

Vadim Dubnov: In his speech to the Baku University Aliyev, to my thinking, again sent a message that there was alienation in the relations between Europe and Russia. Is that really so or Aliyev has to set sights on his priorities?

Mehman Aliyev: In the case at hand, they are not interested that European observers take part in the election process, discuss technical details, etc. They would like that observers are widely represented but not admitted to the process as such. Despite statements of this sort, there is an evident distancing from Europe and instead bent for pro-Russian statements.

I think that international observers, representatives of CIS countries, «Non-Aligned Movement», etc. but not European structures. In other words, the authorities want an international participation but exactly in this order and this perspective. What will happen after elections? I think that the post-election situation will differ from what has been before, and a balanced approach will be applied in respect of the West-North – it’s always been the case, so the process will continue to this end.

Vadim Dubnov: Aren’t maneuvering resources running short gradually?

Mehman Aliyev: We face no special problems with Russia, especially as the Mehriban Aliyeva’s last visit had largely dealt with trade relations and, as far I can gather, all the parties have practically been pleased with the results of the talks. The same is true of the cultural aspects, say, the Russian language, cultural presence, i.e. all things secured, all satisfied. Yes, mishaps with Europe remain: the European Union insists on more dynamic rapprochement, execution of commitments, etc. More problems remain in the matter of disequilibrium, so, as I see it, measures will be taken after elections to iron out differences. Hence, we are sure to watch rapprochement with the European Union, i.e. certain negotiating processes and advancement are likely to take place in the matter.