The average monthly imports to increase by 27.6%

In 2015, the Azerbaijani government forecasts the volume of imports at $ 11.1 billion. This means that the amount of the average monthly imports compared to 2014 will increase by 27.6%.

According to the macroeconomic forecasts of the government, the foreign trade turnover of the country in the next year will be $ 37.9 billion. However, forecasts for the current year have been passed over in silence. According to the State Customs Committee (SCC) for the first nine months of this year, foreign trade turnover amounted to $ 23.8 billion. It decreased by 8.6%. Decreased not only the volume of exports of goods (-3.8%), but also imports (19.1%). If the first nine months of this year, the average monthly volume of imports of goods amounted to $ 724.6 million, in 2015 the government expects to reach $ 925 million of average monthly imports of goods. Against the background of forward-looking statements on the growth of the non-oil sector of the industry, as well as agricultural production, forecasts on increasing imports of goods seem unfounded.

At the same time, in 2015, the government expects increase in non-oil exports by $0.5 billion compared with the current year. It is expected that this figure will be $ 2.7 billion or 10% of total exports.

The forecasts have been published at a time when the country's oil exports decreased due to the drop in the world prices for crude oil.

In 2013, the volume of foreign trade turnover amounted to $ 34.6 billion, 3.3% more than in 2012.

According to the draft budget package in 2015, the SCC will provide transfer to the state budget of 1 billion 590 million manat in the form of taxes and duties, which is 80 million manat or 5.3% of the forecast for the current year.

Experts believe that the government forecasts may be indicative of future pressures on the participants of foreign trade operations. The Customs Service of the country is the instrument of informal monopoly in business, and in many cases, customs duties are provided at the discretion of the customs officers, who treat forms of attraction of goods to the customs taxes provided by the legislation at the expense of the importers. In addition, the mirror analysis of foreign trade with many countries of the world shows that the official customs statistics of Azerbaijan underestimates the amount of data on imports, which are expressed in several billions of dollars. In light of this, we can assume that in 2015, import indicators may be partially legalized. --08B--