Around Iran. Open game

The failure of the American blitzkrieg in Iran increased the vulnerability of Azerbaijan, which has always been the target of Iranian and other Islamists, dissatisfied with the allied relations of Baku with Washington and Tel Aviv.

Since gaining independence in 1991 and the fall of the Iron Curtain with Iran, Azerbaijan has used various ways to strengthen its security, resorting to the help of all the powers interested in the region - Russia, Turkey, the USA, Israel and European countries. This is natural, because since the beginning of the 90s of the last century this post-soviet Muslim country has become a field of struggle for the influence of various Muslim countries and Islamic religious movements of the Big East and, especially, Iran due to its historical coherence and geographical proximity. An attempt to come to agreement with such forces by participating in various Islamic initiatives and at the same time striving to ensure security with the help of the powers in the crisis situation of the Trump policy of squeezing Iran seems to have cracked.

The country's security vulnerability has intensified, as evidenced by the public statements of pro-Iranian military commanders in Iraq, whose facilities were bombed in July-August this year, while the last American initiative to pressure Iran reached its culmination point. The deputy commander of the Iran-controlled al-Hashd al-Shaabi group, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, directly accused Azerbaijan of using its territory to inflict air strikes on Israel with pro-Iranian military facilities in Iraq. Muhandis promised retaliation to Israel, which indirectly could mean a threat to Azerbaijan.

The New York Times then openly stated that the territory of Azerbaijan had previously been used for aerial reconnaissance of Iran"s nuclear facilities. The publication claims that reconnaissance drones flew from Azerbaijan to Iranian airspace. A frank leak of an influential publication actually openly fixes the status quo in the system of military-political actions of the United States and Israel in the region of the Big East and deprives official Baku of maneuvers between regional and superpower forces, which leaves no choice but to agree with its role as an ally of Washington and not only.

According to the Russian "Independent Newspaper", Israel attacks the positions of Shiite militias in Iraq with the permission of Russia and the United States. Western diplomatic source told Asharq Al-Awsat about it. He admitted that the forces of the Jewish state are behind the increasing explosions at military facilities, but because of agreements with Moscow and Washington, the Israelis could not speak openly about the involvement of the campaign. In the expert community, they admit that Russia could indeed give green light to the blows.

A statement from the New York Times came when the United States virtually recognized the failure of the Blitzkrieg strategy, Iran, in the person of its Iraqi commanders, spoke of retaliation, and Russian Security Council Secretary Patrushev visited Baku. The latter discussed in Baku the problems of security and blocking the ways of penetration into the region of militants from the Middle East theater of operations. It should be noted that the militants of ISIS and other radical Islamist groups in public form threatened Azerbaijan in retaliation for its secular policy.

In the summer of 2016, the Turkish newspaper Milliyyet, citing the country's special services, reported that ISIS chose a new route for transporting suicide bombers to Europe - through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Cyprus. It was also reported about planning a series of terrorist attacks in Turkey and Azerbaijan, for which militants were chosen among immigrants from Azerbaijan and from the North Caucasus. Official Baku has denied allegations of granting its territory to Israel in order to attack military facilities in Iraq. The statements voiced the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense. However, it is possible that Israeli drones, which are manufactured in Azerbaijan to protect their territory, could be used against Iran.

It is not secret that Azerbaijan and Israel cooperate in the field of security, and Tel Aviv publicly advertises this interaction. In December 2016, on the eve of Prime Minister Natanyahu"s visit to Baku, the head of the Israeli special services Mossad, Yosi Cohen, called the visit strategically important from the point of view of discussing pressing security issues. "I hope that in the remaining days the final text of the official memorandum of understanding will be prepared, which will be signed by senior officials of both countries," Cohen said. In the agreement, both parties committed themselves to increase multilateral cooperation on issues of common security threats, and Tel Aviv volunteered to deploy and mobilize equipment and advanced security systems for the Azerbaijani government.

"According to a preliminary agreement with the Azerbaijani security service, Mossad will cooperate with the government of Azerbaijan in the fight against terrorism, religious extremism, preventing a coup and creating multilateral regional unions. In this regard, the parties agreed that a number of experienced Mossad officers would deploy in Baku. Also, joint security meetings between Tel Aviv and Baku will be held quarterly," Cohen, said. When asked about the purpose of the agreement, he replied, "This document will certainly increase the security of Azerbaijan against external threats and ensure the security of both countries in the region."

Official Baku does not say anything about the dangers of Middle East terrorism in Azerbaijan. However, it does not mean that in the administration of President Aliyev, threats of retaliation for pro-Iranian field commanders are ignored. Iran"s radical steps to the US"s radical steps demonstrate Tehran"s readiness for hard-to-predict actions. The friendly telephone call of Iranian President Ruhani to President Aliyev on August 13 in these difficult conditions of playing with open cards, we cannot consider as a manifestation of goodwill and a guarantee that Azerbaijan will not become a field of retaliation for wounded Iranian power. In this context, the restriction of Aliyev"s public activity may also be a consequence of recent events around Iran and the threats they provoked against Azerbaijan.