In case of sudden attack Azerbaijan can win, Russian experts

Baku / 24.03.18 / Turan: The aggravation of the military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh is inevitable, said the experts of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in the report "Waiting for the Storm: South Caucasus", RBC reports.Analysts of the Center warn of a high probability of escalation of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.Moreover, the military superiority of Azerbaijanis over Armenians is increasingly obvious, experts believe.

The conflict can be sharply aggravated for several reasons: due to Azerbaijan's technical superiority, possible rise in oil prices, demographic imbalance, and also because of the impossibility of legal securing of the seized non-Karabakh territories of Azerbaijan to the Armenians, experts believe.Over the decade after the Karabakh conflict (1991-1994), on the one hand, Armenia and the unrecognized "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" ("NKR" - our quotes), on the other hand, maintained a balance of power. The US embargo in the 1990s on arms deliveries to Azerbaijan and Armenia's support for Russia equalized the alignment of forces in the South Caucasus region.

A turning point occurred in the 2000s - after a sharp increase in the cost of oil, experts say. The balance of forces changed in favor ofAzerbaijan - a country with a developed oil industry. The inflow of petrodollars allowed Azerbaijan to increase military expenditures by the number of the army. If in 2001, according to the authors of the report, the country's military budget was $300 million, in 2013 it reached $ 3.7 billion and equaled the entire state budget of Armenia, the report says.The number of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan in 2016 reached 126 thousand people, according to Military Balance. "Taking into account the departmental units, the presidential guard and various paramilitary groups, as well as civilian personnel, the total number of people under arms in Azerbaijan is at least 250,000 people," the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies says.

The Armenian Armed Forces since 2002 and up to the present time make up about 45000 people. The number of "army of defense of Nagorno-Karabakh" is about 20000 people, half of them are draftees from Armenia.The inflow of oil money allowed to start a large-scale rearmament of the Azerbaijani army. In large quantities, modern main tanks, combat armored vehicles, anti-aircraft missile systems, aircraft, helicopters, anti-tank guided missiles, artillery systems, detection equipment (night vision devices, laser reconnaissance devices, thermal imagers) and unmanned aerial vehicles were purchased in large quantities. The main suppliers were Israel, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Turkey and Russia. New opportunities for Baku were demonstrated during the "April war" (the four-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016): clashes showed that equipped with modern technology, Azerbaijani troops have the advantage of night fighting.

The strengthening of Azerbaijan was triggered by the reaction of Russia, which since 2013 has increased the supply of arms to Armenia. In February 2016, she was provided with a loan for the purchase of arms worth $ 200 million. Deliveries included Launch Mixture launchers and missiles to them, MANPADS, radio and technical reconnaissance equipment, flamethrower systems TOS-1A, light and small arms. In addition, after the "April war" Yerevan purchased night vision devices and thermal imagers, motion sensors, laser reconnaissance devices and drones, which were in short supply in "NKR".

Although in connection with the drop in world oil prices, Azerbaijan's military spending began to decline and from 2015 to $ 1.55-1.7 billion a year, from an average and long-term perspective, such expenses for the Armenian side remain unattainable, experts of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. In 2017, Armenia's military expenditures totaled $ 440 million, in 2016 - $ 436 million.The authors also point to a demographic imbalance.

If the demographic trend does not change, then the population of Armenia can be reduced to 3 million people in 2030 and to 2.7 million in 2050. The population of Azerbaijan, according to UN estimates, will increase to 10.7 million by 2030 and up to 11 million people to 2050, analysts note.

Baku is facing growing social tension, generated, among other things, by demographic growth, the report says. The influx of rural youth into cities is a factor of serious domestic political risk.Any manifestation of weakness by Armenia may become the reason for Baku to start new military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh. And if the attack is a bit boring, Baku can win.

The legal solution to the conflict so far cannot be found, analysts of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies believe. "The very discussion of the question of Karabakh's belonging is conditioned by Azerbaijanis returning to them territories that were not part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region.

The legal solution to the conflict so far cannot be found yet, analysts of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies believe. "The very discussion of the question of Karabakh's belonging is conditioned by Azerbaijanis returning to them territories that were not part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region. Meanwhile, even the possible return of only Agdam and Fizuli districts would already significantly weaken the stability of the Armenian defense, while the return of the Lachin or Kelbajar district undermines it completely, "the authors of the report explain.

"There is no international legalization of the actual status of Karabakh, the Armenian side is doomed to a permanent arms race with Azerbaijan with disparate economic and demographic resources," military experts conclude.

As for the factor of Russia, Moscow solves the difficult task of maintaining a balance in relations with a valuable partner and an inevitable ally, and seeks to prevent its highly burdensome military intervention into another one in the conflict, following Syria and the Donbas.

The Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies is the leading Russian research organization dealing with a wide range of issues in the field of defense and security: the structure and condition of the armed forces of the countries of the world, the defense industry, and military-technical cooperation.-06в--