Zh. Libaridyan: It is necessary to exclude Russia from the negotiations on Karabakh

On the dependence of the South Caucasus region on the peaceful situation said on Thursday in Baku at the international conference "Collective efforts for the future of the Caucasus: the past 20 years, and their lessons."

It was organized by the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan and the publication "Turkish Policy Quarterly" and "Caucasus International».

Conference participants also discussed the prospects of changing the existing political and economic balance in the region, the prospects for the future policy of Russia, the EU, Turkey and the United States in the settlement of existing conflicts in the region.

Keynote speakers at the conference were a former adviser to the president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan Zherayr Libaridyan, president of the Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Alexander Rondeli (Georgia) and the deputy of Milli Mejlis of Azerbaijan Rasim Musabekov. (It should be noted that in the beginning of the event a warm meeting of old friends and colleagues - Libaridyan and Guluzadeh took place – Libaridyan arrived in Baku with his daughter).

All three speakers noted that development and security of the South Caucasus depends on the answer to the question "Who are we and where are we going?".

According to Alexander Rondeli, the search for answers continues. "We are only now realized that everything is connected with the economy and national security. Georgia is currently trying to find a balance between democracy and national security," he said.

The subject of serious debate was the question "What do neighborly relations mean for the countries of the South Caucasus?" and "Do the peoples of the South Caucasus see the region uniform?"

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia blame only their neighbors for their problems. In all three countries, nationalism is above the rule of law, but nationalism is not a democracy. When government policy coincides with the ethnic interests, there are conflicts and wars, says Libaridyan.

Despite all the difficulties, the South Caucasus country gained its independence irreversible. The region does not sacrifice the independence or for the sake of Moscow or the West. At the same time, Azerbaijan and Georgia have chosen the path of integration with the West, and Armenia is aimed at Russia, said Rasim Musabekov.

Speakers focused on the settlement of existing conflicts in the region. According to Libaridyan, the countries are at a “cold war”. It is required to stop Russia's interference in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts.

"Negotiations should take place on a bilateral basis, the mediators come and go - I do not believe them. Azerbaijan and Armenia should give preference to direct negotiations. Negotiations should also go between communities. Presidents should take into account the emotions and demands of the public, but also need to build trust and a general formula. The concessions of the parties shall be a condition. We should not hide behind the problems and solve them. The conflict must be resolved, because the time limit is exhausted," said Libaridyan.

Rasim Musabekov conducted a comparative analysis of the South Caucasus and Baltic countries.

"The Baltic countries have chosen not conflict, but cooperation. They are now members of NATO and the EU. In Soviet times, 40-45% of the population and economy of the South Caucasus were concentrated in Azerbaijan. Now Azerbaijan has concentrated 60% of the population, 70% of the economy, and 90% of the investments.

Azerbaijan's development has led to economic development in Georgia; relations between these countries are a good example for neighborhood," said Musabekov. According to him, in the region there are currently two alliances - Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan and Russia-Armenia-Iran. At the same time the prestige of Turkey and the West continues to increase in the region.

Future risks in the region come from Russia and Iran. Russia continues to concentrate troops in the North Caucasus. There is a risk that if the West attacks Iran, Russia will open a corridor through Georgia to Armenia, Musabekov said.

"To survive, Azerbaijan and Georgia should be integrated in the West," he said.

Libaridyan said that at one time, the Armenian authorities made a mistake when Ter-Petrosyan resigned rather than carry through the process of making peace. "Azerbaijan and Georgia are independent, and Armenia is weak. Azerbaijan and Georgia develop and the process continues.

We - Levon Ter-Petrosyan and I - have seen the future of the region in its stable development. This is only possible through the cooperation of the neighbors, but Armenia is hostile to its most important neighbors - Azerbaijan and Turkey.

I can not predict the outcome of a possible war. You can rely on your economy, oil, military power and so forth, but these are not the only factors," said Libaridyan.

The former state adviser on foreign policy issues Vafa Guluzadeh noted that the last 20 years the region seemed as undergoing tsunami and earthquake, and the cause of these phenomena was Russia. The region has one solution - democracy and integration in the West. It is necessary that the borders in the Caucasus had the same symbolic character, as in Europe, said Guluzadeh. -03C04-