Who Is Behind Worsening of Karabakh Conflict?

The cause of aggravation of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and Karabakh in the last month was a geopolitical game. About this in an interview with Turan and the Voice of America said the political scientist and expert Arastun Orujlu, commenting on the increase in tension in the region.

 So, very actively discussed are options of returning regions around Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in exchange for the establishment of a Russian military base in Azerbaijan and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. Apparently, it is acceptable for Baku. However, the recent visit to Baku of Farkas, assistant head of the Pentagon, and her statement that Russia alone cannot solve the conflict and carry out the peacekeeping operation apparently made the Azerbaijani leadership give up such a scenario, he said.

According to Orujlu, the interests of Moscow and Washington in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict are not the same. "At present, Russia is rushing to the Middle East and this requires a strong position in the South Caucasus, especially in Azerbaijan, with its military infrastructure - military bases, airfields, radar and geographical position," said the expert. In addition, the shortest route to Syria is through the airspace of Azerbaijan and Iran. Here are the interests of Russia. However, the interests of the United States are to prevent the strengthening of the role and influence of Moscow in the region, said Orujlu.

What are the prospects of peace negotiations? In answering this question, the political scientist noted that at this stage it is impossible, first of all, because of the contradictions between the US and Russia. In this situation, the negotiations can only be about how to keep the peace, and to achieve progress in the negotiation process today is not real.

What is behind the calls for war and military operations? How does this affect the situation in the region? In answering these questions, the expert noted that they do not carry benefits either to Armenia or to Azerbaijan.

In his opinion, control of the situation is in the hands of Moscow, and by manipulating the parties the Kremlin is trying to solve its problem in the first place, to secure its interests.

Among these interests are questions of energy resources. An integral part of the solution of these problems is the actions of Russia in Georgia - South Ossetia, where part of the Baku-Supsa pipeline is under the control of the Russian occupation forces.

In an effort to involve Georgia in another military conflict, Moscow wants to destabilize Georgia and the South Caucasus as a transit region for the delivery of oil and gas to the West not only from Azerbaijan, but also from Iran and Turkmenistan.

In the long term, all this can be a factor in fuel poverty, and thus in rising oil prices. Today Russia is severely affected by falling prices and it is interested in a new regional crisis. However, these calculations are unlikely to be justified, as the West has long been actively preparing to limit the consumption of oil and gas from Russia, said Orujlu. -03B-