To the election: why not?

The date of the next congress of the AKP, which has been in power for 19 years (with Mr. Erdoğan’s governments for 18 years), will be determined in the coming days.

The situation before the VII Congress is in no way similar to the previous ones; Yes, I have closely followed the activities of some of these people, especially Mr. Erdoğan, in Erbakan's Welfare Party since the early 1990s, and in May 2000, the "reformists" left the party and organized under Erdoğan’s leadership, as if it happened yesterday.

I'm not saying "extraordinary" because Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not a politician who allows anything to happen extraordinarily. Therefore, it would be appropriate to say the scene "attracting more attention". The first reason why the AKP’s VII Congress attracted more attention is that despite the fact that the regional conferences were held in an epidemic environment, the party's founding leader, Erdoğan, announced higher goals at each conference.

Mr. Erdoğan’s moves should be envied when public opinion polls show that the 19-year-old ruling party's rating is at least 10% lower than in the last election.

Another important aspect that attracted attention on the eve of the VII Congress was the strong support given by the AKP leader and head of state to his son-in-law Berat Albayrak at the Izmir regional conference.

Berat Albayrak, the groom who became MP and then Minister of Energy in 2015, took over the responsibility of the treasury and finance in the government formed after the June 24, 2018, elections that changed the system; however, both by fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and by the fact that the Central Bank's interest rate policy has made economic indicators very bad, he announced his resignation on Instagram last November.

Since then, the name of the groom, Albayrak, whom no one has been able to obtain accurate information from, has been raised directly by the president and warmly defended, causing a sharp fluctuation in the foreign exchange market. In general, while not only the foreign exchange market but also the majority of players in the economic system have a negative attitude to the surname Albayrak, various meanings were sought under the praise of the head of state.

If we include the concept of "family" in the case, the fact that the head of state openly defended his son-in-law after 4 months of absence has raised the two possibilities. The first possibility seems more realistic because it is not difficult for Albayrak to return to the government and even be given the post of vice president, and if it is done by the president, it means that he will take this step, taking into account many options. The second possibility is that early elections may be held in the summer. In a speech at one of the regional conferences, when the AKP leader spoke about "going from house to house during the Ramadan, working harder and preparing for the process that follows", his remarks were interpreted as an early election this summer.

Mr. Erdoğan’s policy of "holding elections after the Ramadan" is well known to those who follow politics, and there are many who have written that it would be right to analyze his last words as part of that practice. In this regard, on the eve of the election, Mr. Erdoğan needs his son-in-law, Albayrak, as air and water, and his exclusion from the process in these months will, in the popular saying in Turkey, "contradict the nature of the thing."

Bringing Albayrak back to the office is vital for Mr. Erdoğan in terms of the fate of the AKP after the early elections. Because regardless of the outcome of the election, there are growing rumors that Erdoğan will step down as party leader.

An analysis of this claim, which is not insignificant, within the framework of Erdoğan’s policy, allows us to say that the probability of bringing Berat Albayrak to the post of party chairman is not low. Because, in particular, only Berat Albayrak can keep the AKP organizations, which have been on the shoulders of politicians of the Black Sea origin for 10 years, on their feet without violating the same policy doctrine (although he cannot lead them forward). Therefore, we believe that there is nothing wrong with writing now that March will be of great importance for Turkish politics, provided it is not later than Monday.

Another strange aspect is that the Nationalist Movement Party, a minor ally of the government, will hold its next congress in March. While continuing to follow Turkish policy, it would be expedient to put an end to the article with the following question:

Will the "One Board, One Mandate" parties also hold a congress, or will Mr. Adalat Valiyev solve the congress issue himself without bothering them?

Mayis Alizade