In general, Turkey is right - Isa Gambar

Baku/19.05.22/Turan: In the "Difficult Question" program, the head of the National Center for Strategic Thought, Isa Gambar, answered questions regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, the reasons for preventing Turkey from joining Sweden and Finland in NATO,  Armenia's attitude to peace negotiations with Azerbaijan,  protest actions in Armenia, the political and social situation in Azerbaijan, as well as other issues on the agenda. According to Gambar, the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue.

“The Ukrainian side intends to liberate the occupied territories and achieve guarantees of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Russian side is not ready to give up its claims. The Putin regime hopes, having mobilized its potential, to achieve at least some success in order to justify itself to the Russian public for unleashing the war. Therefore, the war will drag on. Regardless of the outcome of this war, Ukraine became its moral and political winner. While the resources of Russia are depleted, while the possibilities of Ukraine, due to the support of the international community for the selfless and heroic struggle of its people, are only expanding. Therefore, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the war will continue and that Ukraine will win,” he said.

According to Gambar, different scenarios for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war are possible.

“One of the possible scenarios is the weakening and fall of the regime in Russia as a result of the continuation of the unsuccessful war. The forces that come to power in Russia, whether they come out of the bowels of this regime, can make peace. And now the myth about Putin is being debunked, and it is likely that the new forces that will come to power, resigned to the collapse, will try to save Russia from new upheavals. In my opinion, such a scenario is even more likely than a complete weakening as a result of a long, exhausting war,” he suggested.

Predicting the actions of a dictator is a thankless task. Anything can be expected from a dictator who fails.

"He can attack both Moldova and Poland... Theoretically, Russia can take over Moldova, but such an attempt will only hasten the demise of the regime," the analyst said.

Commenting on the official appeal of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, Gambar regarded this event as a significant phenomenon in modern geopolitics.

“If you remember, one of the pretexts for aggression against Ukraine was the desire to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and prevent the Alliance from approaching its borders. At the end of 2021, Russia issued meaningless ultimatums addressed to NATO and the United States, such as, NATO should withdraw to the borders of 1997, etc. Now, as a result of the criminal war started by Russia, Sweden and Finland are being asked to join NATO and will eventually be accepted into this organization. Then Russia's borders with NATO will increase, as experts point out, by 1,300 km,” he stressed.

Concerning the reasons for preventing Turkey from joining Sweden and Finland in NATO, the analyst noted that one should pay attention to its arguments.

“Firstly, Turkey believes that in these countries, and especially in Sweden, favorable conditions have been created for the terrorist organization PKK, that this is unacceptable and a country that becomes an ally of Turkey by joining NATO cannot support an organization whose activities directed against the Turkish state. This is a fair request! Secondly, at the same time, these countries imposed sanctions on the supply of weapons and military equipment to Turkey. Is such an alliance possible? Of course no. Here Turkey is right again,” Gambar said.

According to the analyst, there are other issues not related to Sweden and Finland. “These are tensions between Ankara and Washington in connection with the exclusion of Turkey from the F-35 Lightning II jet aircraft program, the issue of acquiring new modifications of the F-16 aircraft. True, as I said, this is not connected with Sweden and Finland, but with the United States. But in general, Turkey is right,” concluded Gambar.—0—