"Even if Russian-made goods become cheaper, this will not happen, because...'

In recent days, the Russian ruble's downward spiral has persisted, although it gained some ground in the past day. Earlier this week, the value of 1000 rubles fell below 17 Azerbaijani Manats, but recently, the ruble has seen a slight increase, with 1000 rubles now exceeding 17 Manats.

The trade relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan has been on the rise in recent years. According to data from the State Customs Committee, the trade turnover between the two countries in the first half of this year totaled $2,164,562,000. This marked an increase of $592.3 million, or 37.7 percent, compared to the same period last year. During this timeframe, Azerbaijan imported goods worth $1.5 billion from Russia, while its exports to Russia amounted to $621.1 million.

Given these dynamics, experts predict that the sharp devaluation of the ruble will have limited impact on the Azerbaijani economy. Moreover, remittances from Azerbaijani citizens working in Russia continue to flow into the country.

Surayya Novruzova, a mother in Baku whose daughter is employed as a cook in St. Petersburg, shared her experience with Radio Azadlig. She noted that her daughter used to send her roughly $600 a month, but this has now dropped to $450 due to the ruble's devaluation. Novruzova explained that while her daughter's income remained stable, the exchange rate change affected the value of the remittances.

Data from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan reveals a significant decline in money transfers to the country compared to the previous January-June period. Transfers decreased by 1,327 million Azerbaijani Manats, or 40.2 percent, originating from Russia.

Vugar Bayramov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on Economic Policy, Industry, and Entrepreneurship, emphasized  in an interview with Turan, that Russia's share in Azerbaijan's export-driven currency inflow is relatively small, accounting for only 3.5 percent of the total. Bayramov argued that the ruble's fall won't substantially affect Azerbaijan's economy, given that Russia's contribution is limited.

However, he acknowledged that economic challenges in Russia could lead to reduced remittance volumes sent from Russia to Azerbaijan. On the flip side, the ruble's depreciation could bolster the nominal effective exchange rate of the Azerbaijani Manat, potentially supporting non-oil exports.

Economist Zohrab Ismail, in an interview with Radio Azadlig, noted, that the ruble's depreciation is linked to Western sanctions stemming from Russia's conflict with Ukraine. He predicted a continued decline in the ruble's value due to ongoing geopolitical factors.

Ismail suggested that, as the ruble weakens, imported food products from Russia might become cheaper in Azerbaijan. However, he pointed out that this benefit may not translate to consumers, as importers stand to profit more. He cautioned that Azerbaijani exporters of fruits and vegetables to Russia might face challenges, as their goods could become more expensive in the Russian market.

Furthermore, Ismail highlighted that Azerbaijani citizens working in Russia are likely to send fewer funds back home due to the ruble's depreciation. He underscored the potential impact on Azerbaijani businessmen operating in Russia.

As of now, there haven't been indications of Russian-made products experiencing a decline in availability within Azerbaijan's trade networks.