A deeper crisis will begin in Armenia from July- August,”Mikael Melkumyan, deputy from the Prosperous Armenia faction, warned the Armenians, speaking May 5 from the parliamentary rostrum. “Monstrous unemployment is expected in Armenia,” other local experts report, pointing to the imminent return of thousands of Armenians from Russia who lost their jobs in Russia and the closure of economic enterprises in Armenia as a result of the pandemic crisis.

What will happen after quarantine? Armenia will weaken; riots of discontented population will break out. Azerbaijan will start a war, analysts in Yerevan say, recalling a recent statement by the Azerbaijani defense minister about the "too high likelihood of a resumption of the war." The Yerevan-based Caucasian Knot blogger so called his post: "Coronavirus prevented Azerbaijan from starting a new round of war."

Military expert Vitaly Mangasaryan believes that at a meeting of the command staff of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, Minister Zakir Hasanov gave the country's command staff the corresponding instructions - to prepare for military operations. Then Z. Hasanov went to inspect the troops at the front line. Mangasaryan draws attention to the fact that almost all the media in Baku quoted the statement of Minister Hasanov, and called on Armenia to increase vigilance both in the army and in society, being ready for any scenario.

Yerevan blogger reports that over the past two months, the Azerbaijani army has been carrying out “intense military maneuvers in which almost all units — air, artillery, radio engineering and radio defense units, etc. are taking part. Hasanov instructed to conduct reconnaissance work in Armenian rear, which involves the activation of unmanned aerial vehicles.

In April, an unprecedented increase in tension was recorded on the front line compared with the last 1-1.5 years. In addition to the active use of firearms, artillery was used, in particular grenade launchers. The air defense units of the Armenian army in Karabakh shot down an Israeli-made drone of the Orbiter 3. Although the military aviation of Azerbaijan did not violate the airspace of Armenia, they maneuvered quite close to the contact line," the Yerevan press reports.

If it were not for the coronavirus, which somewhat confused the plans of Baku, then perhaps the Azerbaijanis would have launched a military operation at the end of April. "They say that Azerbaijan also adheres to this opinion ..., » the Yerevan blogger concludes.

In Karabakh and Armenia, they even predict the attack directions of the Azerbaijani army. "Azerbaijan continues to actively arm itself, to strengthen not only its front line in the Karabakh direction, but also the Nakhchivan section of the border with Armenia, preparing for a large-scale war. Baku will try to quickly break through the Askeran region in the Agdam and other lowland directions and go to the vicinity of Stepanakert. During the April of the 2016 war, Azerbaijan took certain positions in the direction of Talysh, threatening the Martakert region, the Sarsang reservoir (the main water resource of Karabakh ), as well as the strategic by its significance, the Mardakert-NKR-Vardenis (Armenia) road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The April war predetermined the directions in which Baku would subsequently advance," writes, quoting Armenian experts.

In an interview with Turan, military expert Uzeyir Jafarov said that the war could begin at any time because negotiations with the occupier do not give the desired result.


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