Political scientist: "Events in Iran can affect Azerbaijan"

Baku/04.01.18/Turan: The unrest in neighboring Iran began at the end of last year and initially had a local character. However, literally a couple of days people's discontent gripped literally all the cities and provinces of the country. Initially, the demands of the protesters were of a social nature and were directed against the economic policies of the ruling circles. People went to the streets after they lost money because of the collapse of various credit institutions that many senior officials of the country claimed. Iranian President Hasan Ruhani fell into special disgrace. Before the start of the first unrest, during which up to 160,000 people came to the streets, the price of gasoline was raised, and financial assistance to the poor was also cut. As a consequence, prices have risen, and the social status of people has worsened.

Soon, the social demands of the demonstrators grew into political ones, the portraits of the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, the president of Rukhani, people chanted "Freedom to political prisoners", "Death to dictator!" Were burned off the walls and burned. Do not stay away from the protests and South Azerbaijan, residents of most of the cities of which also took to the streets with similar demands of a political and social nature. Peaceful demonstrations soon escalated into clashes with the police, first victims appeared, arrests began. The situation remains quite tense today.

The authorities reacted to the protests across the country, calling them tricks of external forces aimed at destabilizing the situation. In particular, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that mass protests in Iran were organized by "enemies of the country" who are trying to use every opportunity to harm the country: "Enemies by all means, including weapons and money, united to harm state power." Iran's Security Council went further and named specific "culprits" for the latest developments in the country. Secretary of the structure Ali Shamkhani stated that the protest actions in Iran are part of an "indirect war" with the country led by some states: "The disorders in the country were provoked by the United States, Great Britain and Saudi Arabia, who run campaigns in social networks. The actions are aimed at preventing the development of the country," the secretary said. The US, in turn, said that they intend to convene emergency sessions of the UN Security Council in the coming days. The US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley added that "the freedoms recorded in the UN Charter are being attacked in Iran. Dozens were already killed, hundreds - arrested. From the Iranian dictators, we can expect new blatant violations in the coming days, "the diplomat said.

Recently, the Russian press reported that Azerbaijan, along with the United States and Israel, is also interested in destabilizing the situation in Iran, and recent visits by Israeli and US officials to Azerbaijan and their meeting with the country's top leadership are "confirmation of the establishment of a springboard near Iran-Azerbaijan border, using the opportunities of official Baku." The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, in turn, stated that "the Azerbaijani side wants the events in Iran to proceed in a peaceful manner, in accordance with the legislation of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

What is really going on in neighboring Iran?

Head of the Center for Strategic Studies "Atlas" Elkhan Shahinoglu told Turan that the events in Iran need careful analysis. In his opinion, the crisis in the neighboring country has matured for a long time: "The social situation in Iran is difficult. The authorities of the country, instead of solving the accumulated problems for years, spent money on such groups, organizations like Hesbollah, Hamas, allocated funds for military planning in Syria. By willy-nilly the social situation in Iran deteriorated, the banks went bankrupt and people took to the streets with social demands that turned into political ones. At the moment, it is very difficult to stop this process," the political scientist said.

The expert stressed that the Iranian authorities are looking for what happens in the foreign trail: "I do not rule out that big states are interested in the processes taking place in Iran. Mentioned mainly three states - the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, which are extremely concerned about the regional policy of official Tehran. It is possible that these countries are interested in the current events, but I cannot say how much they are involved in them. Because no foreign state and its secret services can organize numerous rallies in dozens of cities in another country. So there were social problems that led people to the streets. After that, other countries were already interested in the development of current events. It is no coincidence that US President Donald Trump immediately wrote on Twitter that he supports the Iranian people, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also made a similar statement," Shahinoglu said.

The political scientist noted that Azerbaijan is interested in normal relations with its neighbors and does not interfere in their internal affairs: "However, in Azerbaijan, closely monitored Iranian events as they develop. Because, if the events in Iran are out of control, certain steps will be taken to change the power, this may to some extent affect neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, since there is a factor of 30 million Azerbaijanis residing in Iran. However, I do not think that Baku will interfere in the internal affairs of Iran, or create other countries the conditions for this on the territory of their country. In Iran, certain radical circles know that if the country's democratization happens, then the role of Azerbaijanis will increase, which may require autonomy, therefore they point to us as a target for claims. Remember how 10 years ago when Iran conducted nuclear development, and Israel and the United States declared military operations against Tehran, the same Iranian circles accused Azerbaijan of giving military bases to the West. This was a provocation, which was subsequently proved. Now the same circles are again trying to blame Azerbaijan," E.Shahinoglu summed up.