Changes in relations between Ankara and Yerevan and Baku`s participation in this matter

- What is the opinion of the political forces in Turkey regarding the Turkish-Armenian relations?

- There are various political circles in the Turkish state. Turkish society is quite politicized. In Turkey, there are left-wing political parties and organizations, there are right-wing political parties, there are nationalist ones, and there are Islamist ones. In Turkey, the left flank has always been in favor of improving relations with Armenia. They provided almost no support for the just cause of Azerbaijan, and if they did, it was within the framework of the state interests of Turkey. Among the right-wing parties, the greatest support to Azerbaijan was provided by the MHP (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi - Nationalist Movement Party). Islamist organizations have never supported the just cause of Azerbaijan, but during their time in power they supported it within the framework of their interests. During the First Karabakh War, the ruling parties in Turkey reacted positively to the establishment of relations with Armenia. Turkey's relations with Armenia were established during the reign of the late President Turgut Ozal. In general, the political parties in Turkey do not have an established position regarding Armenia. Basically, the left-wing political organizations in Turkey have a well-established position (in relation to Armenia - Ed.). They support improving relations with Armenia. This position was often voiced by the left flank and was included in the charter of the HDP  (Halkların Demokratik Partisi -People's Democratic Party). Its representatives from any rostrum talked about improving relations with Armenia and opening borders. The position of the nationalist front on the right flank was different,  they always  opposed the establishment of relations with Armenia.  They acted exclusively within the framework of the state interests of Turkey. However, the late nationalist leader was at one time in secret negotiations to establish relations with Armenia.

In 1969, among the founders of the PND was an investigative journalist of Armenian origin Levon Panos Dabagyan (1933-2017). Turkey's Islamist organizations have not openly expressed their opinion on this issue. The issue of Palestine was high on the agenda of the Islamists. On the issue concerning Armenia, they supported the policy of the state in everything. The issue of opening the Turkish-Armenian border was put on the agenda in Turkey in 2009. At that time, the leader of the CHP (People's Republican Party - Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) - Deniz Baikal and the leader of the PND Dovlet Bahcheli spoke out strongly against this, supporting Azerbaijan.

At present, the Azerbaijani-Armenian issue is not on the agenda of Turkish political parties, or rather, it is not as relevant as during the 44-day war. During the Patriotic War, in the GNAT (Grand National Assembly of Turkey), with the exception of the HDP, all political parties supported Azerbaijan. Internal issues are currently the main topic of the agenda of political parties in Turkey. The leaders of the parties do not express their position regarding the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. This issue is not discussed in the Turkish press or on television. I think that the leaders of political parties are biding their time. I believe that this is due to the lack of complete information about this rapprochement. The rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia may appear on the agenda of Turkish political parties if any aspect of this rapprochement does not meet the interests of Turkey or if the Azerbaijani state expresses dissatisfaction with this.

- What is known about the representative appointed by Turkey for negotiations with Armenia, what are his political views?

- “Special Representative” Serdar Kilich has been appointed for the process of normalizing relations with Armenia. His  main task is to normalize relations between the two countries before the opening of embassies. He will periodically visit Armenia. Turkey does not have an embassy in Armenia, its ambassador to Georgia is accredited in Armenia.

Sardar Kilich was born in 1958 in the city of Samsun, in the family of leftist views. He comes from Trabzon. His father, Ilyas Kilich, in 1961-1980 was a deputy of the CHP from Samsun. Brother Sinan Kilic was Tayyip Erdogan's personal physician when the latter was mayor of Istanbul. His nephew Akif Çağatay Kılıç, a former minister of youth and sports, was elected three times to the GNAT from the AKP (Justice and Development Party - Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi).

Sardar Kilic graduated from TED College in Ankara. Graduated from the Faculty of Political Science of Ankara University in 1980. Since 1984 he has been working at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

I note that more than 70 percent of the staff of the Turkish Foreign Ministry are graduates of the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Ankara and the University of the Bosphorus, and most of them adhere to leftist views.

The fact that Sardar Kilich adheres to leftist views is normal. His family, the environment in which he was educated, were leftist, and the city in which he was born has always been an outpost for the followers of Ataturk. Serdar Kilic was the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry's department for relations with NATO, held such important posts as the secretary general of the Turkish National Security Council, was the ambassador to Lebanon, Japan and the United States. Serdar Kilic worked for NATO during the crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina, was ambassador to Beirut when Lebanon was on the brink of a civil war. He is known as one of the important diplomats entrusted by Ankara with critical missions. And before that, in order to establish relations with Armenia, Turkey sent left-wing diplomats to this country who wanted to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia. For example, in 2009, this process was headed by the former ambassador of Ankara to Baku in 2001-2004, and now the chief adviser to the chairman of the RPP, the deputy from Istanbul Ahmed Unal Chevikoz (1952). Cevikoz  currently  supports the  opening the Turkish-Armenian border. He expressed anti-Azerbaijani ideas, opposed the 44-day war.

It seems that the Turkish state, in appointing left-wing Sardar Kilic, hopes that he will make an important contribution to the process of rapprochement with Armenia, and most importantly, Sardar Kilic is a diplomat whom Erdogan trusts and who, as ambassador to the United States, fought against FETO. In an interview with the Turkish newspaper Sabah, Sardar Kilic expressed an interesting thought: “I serve the state, not political views. Despite my political background, this government made me the Secretary General of the NSB, Ambassador to Beirut and Washington. I am proud to be trusted to "do my job well."

In addition, the Turkish state does not want to make the mistakes it made in 2009. Therefore, this process will take place within a close framework.

- What is Russia's interest in this process?

- The current geopolitics dictates the need for rapprochement of Turkish-Armenian relations. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who visited Fizuli on October 26, the first anniversary of the Karabakh war, said that if Yerevan sincerely shows the will to resolve problems with Baku, then there will be no obstacles to normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia. Following this, on the anniversary of the end of the war, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who together with the commanders of the security forces took part in the celebrations on the occasion of the victory of Azerbaijan, said that Armenia should regard the hand of peace extended by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkey as a chance. Backstage negotiations are underway between Turkey and Armenia with the support of Russia and the United States.

I express my personal opinion, but there are no guarantees that Russia is interested in establishing these relations and will not act against it like in 2009. Until now, Russia has been supporting this rapprochement within the framework of its interests.

- What is Turkey's interest in rapprochement with Armenia?

 Here I will single out six questions.

1. There is currently a campaign against Turkey in the international arena and the image of Turkey is being damaged. To improve its image, Turkey can go for rapprochement with Armenia.

2. It is known that in order to start a new dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan, the United States intervened in the matter - this issue was discussed between Foreign Ministers Mevlud Cavusoglu and Anthony Blinken and at the meeting of Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Joe Biden in Rome. Therefore, Ankara wants to use the rapprochement with Armenia to fix the damaged relations with Washington.

3. However, the reality is that the establishment of these relations will bring economic benefits to Turkey and Armenia. However, Armenian Minister of Economy Vakhan Kerobyan stated that Armenia plans to extend the ban on imports of goods from Turkey, which  came into force on January 1, 2021.

4. For convenient access to Central Asia, Turkey needs the Zangezur Corridor. Therefore, realizing this rapprochement, Armenia may want to negotiate without Russia.

5. To reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, the West will support this rapprochement.

6. Turkey can take this step to solve the existing problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia without the participation of Russia.

What is Azerbaijan's interest in all this? The Azerbaijani state reacted positively to the conducting these negotiations and so far, having gained patience, is following them. The main thing is that these relations do not harm Azerbaijan. Naturally, rapprochement should meet the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey. In this rapprochement, Russia and Armenia have their own undercover games. And these games can be against Azerbaijan. This process must be closely monitored. If, as a result of rapprochement, Turkey gains political influence on Armenia, it will serve the interests of Azerbaijan. But I do not believe that Turkey will be able to exert political influence on Armenia in the near future.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan can get economic benefits from this convergence. In my opinion, this can serve our national interest. If this rapprochement will solve the problems of Azerbaijan and Armenia, then the establishment of relations will serve our interests.

Let's not forget that there is only one player in Armenia with political influence - Russia. If Pashinyan is sincere in his rapprochement with Turkey, then Azerbaijan should understand Turkey's desire. Remembering the lesson of 2009 (secret Zurich negotiations), Azerbaijan and Turkey will conduct these processes jointly.

Will Armenia continue its anti-Turkish activities in the world? If Turkey continues to insist on very important preconditions, the prospects for this process will be dim. Russia and the United States have a positive attitude to the process. There is no doubt that in the coming period, during the US-Russian summits, one of the topics will be the Caucasus. This process, launched between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia, closely monitored by Russia and Iran, is an extremely important initiative from the point of view of ensuring peace and stability in the region. Armenia's efforts to integrate with the countries of the region and resolve regional problems by diplomatic methods will bring positive results for all the peoples of the region, especially for the peoples of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Let's not forget that Russia and Iran do not want and will not allow Turkey to strengthen in Armenia.

At the current stage, we can estimate the appeared schedule of the convergence process as follows:

The first call for normalization was made in Turkey. However, Ankara makes it clear to Yerevan - "although the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia has ended, do not expect immediate normalization of relations." This naturally raises the question - aren't the Turkish-Armenian relations still under the influence of Azerbaijan? Ankara is determined not so much to establish relations separately with Yerevan as to develop the peace process in such a way that it encompasses the entire Caucasus. Yerevan does not want to separate Ankara from Baku. In addition, both Yerevan and some regional and international actors are asking to refute the idea that "Turkey is in dire need of diplomatic success, it is doomed to meet Yerevan halfway." Instead of promoting a plan according to which "first, Yerevan - Baku agree on a permanent peace, and then the relations between Ankara and Yerevan are normalized," the prevailing opinion is that these two processes can proceed in parallel. Careful and coordinated establishment of diplomatic contacts between the parties at this stage and learning from previous experience are critical to the success of the process.

- Why did the Zurich Protocols fail in 2009?

- First of all, I would like to note that the Armenians occupied a significant place in the Ottoman state. The printing house in the Ottoman state was created by Armenian entrepreneurs. Armenians held the posts of ministers and ambassadors in it. The trade in gold and silver in the Ottoman state was, and continues to this day, in the hands of the Armenians. The Armenians also played a role in the creation of the theater. In general, people of Armenian origin played an important role in the development of art in the Turkish state. The exact number of Armenians during the time of the Ottoman state is unknown, different numbers are called. It should be noted that after 1915, the Armenians, having left the borders of the Ottoman Empire, settled all over the world. Currently, 70-80 thousand Armenians live in Turkey. Unofficially, their number in Turkey is much higher - 250 thousand. Many of the Armenians moved there from Armenia after 1991. Turkey was one of the first states to recognize Armenia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This happened on December 16, 1991, during the reign of Turgut Ozal. Turkey has repeatedly provided assistance to Armenia.

Subsequently, due to territorial claims against Turkey, requests for compensation in connection with the mythical genocide and occupation of Azerbaijani lands in 1993, the Turkish-Armenian borders were closed and remain so to this day.

Nevertheless, from time to time there were contacts between Turkey and Armenia. Two presidents (Suleiman Demirel and Levon Ter-Petrosyan), who met in 1997 within the framework of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, were among the first to put forward the idea of ​​creating a Business Council. In 1998, serious tensions developed between Turkey and Armenia. This was not without the influence of hardliner Robert Kocharian.

One of the most important steps taken in the direction of improving relations between Turkey and Armenia is the creation in March 2000 of the “Turkish-Armenian Peace Commission”, which has no official competence. As a result of the meeting held on July 9, 2001 in Geneva, it became known that a "Turkish-Armenian peace commission" was established. The purpose of this commission is to discuss the problems between Turkey and Armenia, develop opportunities for mutual dialogue. Seen as a platform outside of politics, this initiative has failed to improve relations as a result of mutual statements from politicians. In 2004, private initiative began to appear in this area. And the Austrian-Turkish Scientific Office, under the leadership of Dr. Inandj Atylgan, created the Vienna Turkish-Armenian Platform. The purpose of the Platform was to study historical documents related exclusively to the Turkish-Armenian problem. On this platform, the meetings of historians mainly took place.

From 2008 to 2009, former Turkish President Abdullah Gul wanted to improve relations between Turkey and Armenia. Naturally, Washington was behind this. Washington supported the AKP and one of the conditions for this was the establishment of relations between Turkey and Armenia.

In 2008, Serzh Sargsyan was elected President of Armenia. Three days after Sargsyan's election, on February 21, 2008, Gul, who became president, sent him a congratulatory letter. The congratulations of President Abdullah Gul were of particular importance. In connection with the bloody events in Armenia after the presidential elections, many countries expressed sympathy for Sargsyan, but the congratulatory message of the Turkish President was a sign of Turkey's goodwill towards Armenia.

Prime Minister Erdogan sent a congratulatory message to the new Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Sargsyan, and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian. As reported by the media, Prime Minister Erdogan noted in his message that some concrete steps in the field of bilateral relations, proposals made to Armenia in this context earlier, are all on the agenda. In response, Tigran Sargsyan stated the need to start a constructive and normal dialogue between the two countries without preconditions. The Armenian government expressed its readiness to establish ties, stressed the importance of creating an atmosphere of mutual trust.

However, subsequent events showed that there are no changes in the position of the Armenians. The Armenian side did not confirm the protocols signed in Switzerland with Turkey. However, the main reason for the failure to improve relations was the unity of the Azerbaijani state, society and opposition.

Why did the protocols fail?

1. The Azerbaijani side strongly opposed this. Establishing this relationship was against us. In addition, when establishing these relations, no conditions were set in connection with Karabakh.

As a source, we will quote Sergey Lavrov's statement to the Armenian press: “In 2008, our Armenian friends told us that the Turks offered to come to an agreement on the restoration of diplomatic relations, normalization of relations, cooperation and implementation of joint projects. We said that this is very good, but are there any preconditions? No, there were no preconditions. Then we proceeded to signing the protocols. At the event in Zurich, along with the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey (Ahmed Davutoglu), then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the representative of the European Union, I was also present. We had to witness an important historical event. However, our Turkish colleagues announced that they would sign the protocols if there is a comment on Nagorno-Karabakh. This contradicted the position of Armenia. From the very beginning, I told my colleagues about my disbelief in signing the protocol without any preconditions.

Everyone has already come for signing and then such an insurmountable situation arose. As a result, our Turkish colleague agreed to remove this formal condition, but the Armenian colleagues stated that Armenia should make a statement in which it will set out its position on Nagorno-Karabakh. Then the Turkish minister said that if you make a statement, I will also make a statement. Then we sat down to watch football, and the two ministers argued until midnight. We have already understood that we must get out of this situation. For this reason, I wrote him (the Armenian minister) a note not to insist on comments. And as a result, the documents were signed, but later “disappeared” for the same reason, since the parties had different views on the Karabakh settlement process ”.

As a result of the pressure exerted by the Azerbaijani state, this did not happen. Of course, this pressure is appropriate, the interests of Azerbaijan were not defended. Interestingly, Russia played a big role in improving these relations. Russia agreed with us in words, said yes, but in deeds acted against us.

2. The Turkish state speaks of providing the Azerbaijani side with detailed information about this protocol and the establishment of relations. Source: Ahmed Davutoglu said in an interview with Turkish Habertürk. “We provided all information to the Azerbaijani side. This information was provided to the Azerbaijani state. Moreover, the Turkish side sent a group of persons to Baku who stated the importance of establishing these relations. However, representatives of the Azerbaijani delegation who participated in the meetings showed a strong rejection of this. I want to say that the members of the Turkish delegation were against the establishment of these relations. "

3. During that period, there were sharp protests in Turkey against the establishment of these relations. Particularly harsh were the statements of the opposition leader Deniz Baikal and the leader of the MHP Dovlat Bahcheli. In addition, the Azerbaijani state, the authorities, and opposition leaders opposed this, and as a result, this process did not take place. Turkey wanted to improve relations with the West, but Russia played a role here.

- What can be the incomes of Armenia and Turkey if the borders between them open?

- Despite the fact that the border between Turkey and Armenia is still closed, trade relations between the two countries are conducted through Georgia. Through Georgia, textiles, spare parts and construction materials from Turkey come to Armenia. Despite the fact that the borders are closed, the parties increased the volume of trade from $ 4.5 million in 1993 to $ 30 million in 1997, $ 120 million in 2007 and $ 200 million in 2008.

On March 3, 1997, Turkish and Armenian businessmen established the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council (TABDC - Turkish - Armenian Business Development Council). The Council played a significant role in the development of informal trade between the two states. According to the Institute of Statistics of Turkey (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), the volume of foreign trade between the two countries, which continue trade relations, in 2013 amounted to 571 thousand dollars. The volume of trade between the two countries reached its highest level in the last 8 years as of 2020. The volume of foreign trade between the two countries over the past 8 years amounted to $ 571 thousand, $ 1.4 million, $ 1.2 million, $ 1.9 million, respectively; $ 2.7 million, $ 2.2 million, $ 2.7 million, $ 4.2 million and finally $ 3.8 million in 2021. Closing the border between Turkey and Armenia increases transport costs, making trade and income less profitable. Trade between Turkey and Armenia goes through Georgia, which has increased transport costs by 10%, as well as the delivery time (two days). If the border with Turkey opens, then transport costs for Armenia will decrease, and the incomes of both states will increase.

Kamal Ali