Protests in Iran have root motives

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- Sadraddin bey, protests in Iran have strained lately. What is the reason of protests? What is it all about?

- It has to be kept in mind that recent mass actions in Iran have been caused by rise in petrol prices. A reason of rising prices is US sanctions imposed in August 2018. In fact, it was anticipated event: similar events occurred in December 2018. Social actions of protest were held in Iran following which national currency rates strongly dropped. Assuming the lack of transparency in the Iranian nuclear program, the United States is calling Iran to ensure transparency. For this to happen, inspectors should check atomic facilities, and Iran to follow transparency principles.

To my thinking, Iran’s basic purpose is not the development of the nuclear program. The country wants that the USA and other western countries to guarantee that no power of the mullahs be overthrown. In this respect, Iran is not sure that Americans will really keep their word. In September this year President of Iran Hasan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif took part in the work of the UN General Assembly.At that time they were told that US President Donald Trump would like to see them. However, the Iranian party categorically turned down such a meeting as saying that it was senseless. Results of these meetings believed to insignificant are causing protests in the country today. Note that oil prices in Iran are growing, and because of sanctions Iran is in no position to export a crude oil and petroleum products to external markets.

It should be borne in mind that the economy of Iran has largely been based on petroleum revenues. Under these circumstances the Iranian government is eager to compensate the lack of oil revenues at the expense of domestic market. However, it is impossible because purchasing power of Iranian citizens has to be taken into account. Rising oil prices may lead to the rise in everyday commodities prices. In other words, current developments in Iran are not a crisis of power but economic and financial crisis that caused protests.

- It has been argued that actions of protest are caused by increased petrol prices. However, the above is doubtful resembling a long-prepared scenario. Perhaps, the fuel factor is none other than a pretext while in fact there are root motives?

-It should be realized that Iran is a country of political traditions and active actor in the region. Beyond any doubt, invisible forces inside the country are willing to avail of errors committed by the authorities. For instance, there was a movement in Iran titled «Green movement». In May 2006, actions of protest swept Iranian Azerbaijan after an insulting and offensive carton on Azerbaijanis. Or protests in Ahvaz, Sistan-Baluchistan were anti-governmental campaigns.

All these testify to the fact that various forces are active and capable of protesting in Iran. The authorities are seeking to simplify the situation in an attempt to charge protesters with collaborating with external forces. Beyond any doubt, the US sanctions are main foreign factor, and nobody makes a secret of this fact. Suffice it to say that the authorities and religious leaders of Iran are eager to place guilt on external forces, so they set no task on avoiding sanctions. No actions occur spontaneously worldwide; all of them are governed. In other words, Iranian developments are governed internally as rooted in the very essence of the authoritarian regime. It is natural that there is a support from outside especially as there are forces in Iran that seek to change the regime. The United States is willing that the Iranian people overthrow the current authorities independently. In this respect, overthrow of the Iranian government by means of protest campaigns is not contrary to the international law. Under the international law, citizens have the right to overthrow a regime through violence. However, the Iranian citizens express their discontent over social issues.

When adjusted for the fact that the financial-economic situation in the country changes for the worse, protests are expected to embrace other areas as well. Perhaps, even rightists, leftists, conservative advocates of reforms inside the ruling regime are likely to create a third force in charge of process control. Continuation of developments in this manner may create problems for Iran, its government and effective political existence. The spark matters most in any political action, specifically in the matter of increased price for petrol. Note that petrol is a matter of strategic importance for Iran. This is to say that a matter of Iran’s strategic revenues would cause government’s diffidence and serious problems.

Actions are underway. Perhaps, in a day or two the Iranian authorities will be able to cease protests. For this to happen, it is essential to avoid imprisoning thousands of people. Note that American sanctions are main catalysts of the issue. The sanctions are expected to aggravate the situation. In the first turn, the sanctions are to be lifted; however, the Iranian government is in no position to make concessions. If a leader of North Korea is negotiating with US President, then Iran could as well be involved in the talks. At any rate, the United States made a first step towards a meeting with the Iranian President. However, the Iranian party declined from responding to the proposal. At the same time, there are prospects that the two parties would meet. Note that the Iranian authorities put down Shah supporters in the course of the revolution and are no longer eager to repeat violence of this sort..

- Iranian functionaries accused the Shah’s family and indirectly West of these protests. Does the West or Shah’s family have impact on these developments? Or these protests come from nation’s will?

- Not only the Shah’s family – Mohammad Reza Pehlevi is mentioned. This family does exist; they have supporters, aged though. Note that the new generation has not seen Shah having nothing in common with his relatives. The new generation feels quite differently. The current government is acting not unlike Shah did in due time. Shah had made his contribution to clericals’ coming to power in Iran. He prosecuted and executed thousands out of court. The difference is that in Shah’s period the citizens could freely drink alcohol and amuse themselves. At present, all the above are lacking or under the table.

A project of restoration of the Shah reign in Iran is inherently inefficient. An eloquent testimony to this is a case of Afghanistan where a former monarch failed to come to power. Different from Afghanistan, Iran with its high level literacy. The country is eager to develop and get renovated. Nearly the whole of the Iranian population can write and read. Iran has a great culture which is to be protected and regulated.

That’s why it is very difficult to adopt projects on return of monarchy to Iran and draw democratic believers to power. Even if successful, these projects are doomed to failure. It is worth reminding that the problems of Iran are not in the change of regime only. Should ayatollah Sayid Ali Khamenei retire, another, say, Ibrahimi would replace him. But that is not the case: Iran is facing its own global problems that remain unresolved to stymie the peace. Note that the country will always face foreign interference with country’s internal life. All things considered, the Iranian authorities are willing to associate the protests with strong British influence. Yet, an «English finger» in Iran has been weakened.

At present, the population is well aware of everything through social networks. If there is an «English finger» in the matter, it is obvious that the theocratic regime came to power due to Britishers’ influence. That is a piece of non sequitur. Note that 40 years ago the country was governed without Britishers but now there has appeared an «English finger»?  If so, Shah acted to comply with British instructions. H ignored claims and proposals of his citizens and voters by likening them to external forces. But there is one catch: Russia is minded to avail of protests in the United States or other forces are seeking to benefit from protest campaigns in Great Britain and Russia. It is normal. There are conditions for Iranian authorities to suck advantage out of external forces. However, it’d be illogic to attribute everything to external forces. One cannot treat citizens with such a disdain, for it is fraught with bitter consequences.

- Protests are held in towns of South Azerbaijan. Can these protests in the south of Azerbaijan shadow out future struggle for freedom?

- These protests embraced more than 100 towns of Iran, from north to south and from west to east. These protests have nothing in common with national rights of Turks from South Azerbaijan. The question is that the ruling regime is on the decline, so a new situation may arise in future. In this case Turks from South Azerbaijan can exercise their national rights. It’d be inappropriate to insist that Iran will decline from rising petrol prices and that the country will split to create a state in South Azerbaijan.

Added to this can be that the today’s struggle is a protest against the ruling regime; against its inability to manage the country properly. It ought to be noted that Turks of South Azerbaijan as citizens of this country are involved in the nationwide process. Nothing unusual. Protesters are not mere Turks from South Azerbaijan. The same is true of Arabs in the south; Baluchis in Baluchistan; Kurds and other nationalities that come out against the ruling regime. On the other hand, the weakening of the regime and protest campaigns may create new conditions for Azerbaijani Turks and other nations having no rights.

- What will be results of these protests? Will they lead to revolution in Iran?

- Protest campaigns in Iran may disappear with time. Relaxation of protests is likely to unveil consequences of violence against protesters employed by the Iranian authorities. These include those killed and arrested as well.

It must be acknowledged that even despite persecutions and punishments the Iranian authorities are unlikely to attain the previous level of people’s manageability. That will create a new protest wave in Iran.

The power in Iran is absolutely dictatorial, authoritarian, so it cannot be promptly wiped from human memory. Earlier 2000s marked destruction and burning of statues and sculptures of Khomeini and Khamenei in Iran, so the ruling regime had to think long hard about recent developments.

It should be remembered that any dictator and authoritarian regime is scared of public criticism. People are no longer afraid of Khomeini, Khamenei or mullahs engaged in ETTELAT (state security service). They speak about it openly, and fear fades. New conditions arise with weakening of authoritarianism. I think that the revolution in Iran is possible. However, it’d be premature to insist that the today’s movement is sure to turn into revolution. Beyond any doubt, changes will take place due to efforts of new forces in Iran.