June 20 at Johns Hopkins University in Washington debates were held on the topic: Averting Conflicts in the Caucasus: Is Russia a Partner or a Spoiler?
The event generated enormous interest among diplomats, representatives of the U.S. administration and students. The speakers were two former U.S. ambassadors in Baku and Yerevan - Richard Kozlarich and John Evans. The main theme of the discussions was Nagorno-Karabakh.
The debate highlighted two main conclusions: the United States should respect Russia’s position in the Caucasus and should not take any drastic steps to irritate Moscow (such as the recognition of Kosovo).
At the same time, if Azerbaijan and Armenia want peace, they must engage in dialogue, ensure transparency, prepare the nations for reconciliation and strengthen democracy in their countries.
"A society that does not have free press and opposition cannot be led to peace through the mechanisms of the OSCE Minsk Group," said Evans. In contrast to the former Yugoslavia, in Karabakh the West did not take over the mediation completely, and the OSCE Minsk Group was established, he said.
The Presidents of the two countries meet periodically, but they are not interested in transparency and in informing their people about the situation. Therefore, periodically there are calls for victory rather than reconciliation.
Evans and Kozlarich believe that the tone and expression of the negotiations must be changed. The parties should once and for all abandon the idea of 100% win. Otherwise, the region will be involved in a devastating war with air strikes. All of this will damage not only the parties themselves, but also the interests of the United States and Russia.
Referring to the relation of the U.S. Administration to the Kremlin, the former Ambassadors did not recommend Washington to conduct a policy of pressure on Putin.
"Moscow is not interested in peace or in war in Nagorno-Karabakh," considered both diplomats. At the same time, Kozlarich believes that Russia is concerned that regional peace would lead to the loss of Moscow's influence and its removal from the region. Therefore, the Kremlin thinks not of peace, but of simulating the peace process.
In turn, Mr. Evans said that Moscow is concerned about the possibility of a war that would harm its interests and has been organizing numerous meetings of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the last two years.
As for the prospects of the situation, the ex-Ambassadors were unable to formulate a consensus. At the same time, they consider it necessary to continue the dialogue and believe that the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation and the weakening of Moscow's ambitions may have a positive impact on the achievement of peace. However, without the inner freedom of both societies, the achievement of peace will be problematic, the diplomats believe. -25B-
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