Momentum for another conflict in Karabkh is rather strong

E. Wayne Merry, a senior fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the Washington DC-based American Foreign Policy Council, recently returned from his three-day visit to Azerbaijan’s Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh region.
    “Frozen conflict nears melting point”, Merry, who served at the State and Defense Departments for many years, described his observations right after the visit. 
    According to the analyst, today “there are warning signs of renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan”. 
    In an interview with TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent, Mr. Merry emphasized that “a renewed NK war is not imminent, but that the momentum to another open conflict is quite strong and growing”. 
    The problem is, he explained, “there is no military "balance" but rather an asymmetry between Armenian defensive advantages and Azerbaijani buildup. No one can predict the outcome of another war, other than to see that it will be fundamentally different from the first war and potentially more destructive. Both sides have far more firepower at their disposal today, while the physical parameters of a new conflict would extend well beyond NK itself (however defined)”. 
    Asked what would be the position of the US and Russia, in case of a war in Nagorno-Karabakh: Will they stand on the side of oil-reach Azerbaijan, or lobby-backed Armenia, Mr. Merry said, “neither the United States nor Russia would overtly support either side in a new war, although Russia clearly has treaty commitments to Armenia”. 
    “Both would seek through political means to bring a conflict to a rapid end, but only Russia has the capacity for direct pressure on either Baku or Yerevan”, he added. 
    In the meanwhile, the questions regarding new war possibilities in the South Caucasus remain a concern in the US capital, TURAN’s correspondent reports. 
    Next week, Washington DC-based Kennan Institute will hold a panel seeking an answer on question “ “How dangerous is the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and what can be done to avoid another open conflict? 
    Mr. Merry, among some other analysts such as Thomas de Waal, Fiona Hill and others, will share his thought and observations with the US policy-makers and analysts.