This election was the burial of parliamentarism

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- Arastun bey, early parliamentary elections are over and preliminary results have been announced. What can you say about the election results? What did this election show?

- I would like to divide the assessment of the election results into two groups in terms of time, short-term and long-term, and into socio-political, socio-economic, and psychological effects in terms of different perspectives. Considering the short-term, the supreme legislative body, which is not principally different from the previous one in essence and quality, has been formed. Considering the long-term, we have seen the creation of a more silent, more obedient, and more useless parliament in Azerbaijan, which will have a negative impact on both the quality and the efficiency of the laws passed in the country. This election was a burial of parliamentarianism, which has already been in the form of a germ, in the country. From this, we can also conclude that the division of authorities between the wings of power, the institutional administration, and the fragile elements of the power-society balance that are directly related to them have been removed. Such a situation gives no reason to say that there will be some positive dynamics in the coming years. On the contrary, the lawless environment in the country will continue to deepen, the collapse of the political management system will finalize, corruption will continue to rise, and the economic recession will eventually lead to the socio-economic crisis. Here it is about, not decades or years, but maybe months. The election, coupled with the deepening crisis of public administration, has also shown that foreign influence on Azerbaijan has increased more and that the country is actually managed from abroad. To be more precise, from Russia. This will further increase the already obvious isolation of Azerbaijan from the international world, narrow the government's maneuverability, which in turn will aggravate the socio-economic situation and create additional risks for efforts to address the country's territorial integrity. In addition, failure to confirm the statements, which were about early elections’ being supposed to be held in the context of large-scale reforms, as a result of the elections, has tensed the psychological atmosphere, which has already been exacerbated, in society. In other words, the distrust of the state and the government has increased, which means that the gap between the government and society has deepened. I do not want to present everything in dark colors, but unfortunately, it is not easy to find any positive signs.

- The dissolution of parliament and promises of reforms have inspired and convinced many people. That is why many independent candidates and election blocs, even some opposition candidates, went to the elections with great confidence. However, many of those candidates were not allowed to stand in parliament. Even the independent candidates, to whom the people have shown great confidence, were not elected. The parliament was formed by old MPs and more by members of the NAP. So why was it necessary to dissolve the parliament? Why was all this happening?

- This is the most difficult question now and research shows that no one can answer that question yet. In some cases, it is claimed to be related to possible devaluation, while in others, it is seen as a continuation of recent changes in government but at second one seems more convincing than the first one. Thus, recent changes in the executive structures of the country are increasingly seen as a preparation for the transfer of the presidential power to Mehriban Aliyeva and the early parliamentary elections are also claimed to be a continuation of the change. From the outset, while I personally do not see that there is a serious basis for such transmission, this version does not seem completely groundless although these steps are extremely risky and, I would say, as incompetent as it can be regarded as non-political. It also showed itself with all the nudity in the election. But it did not find enough with just that. The obvious resistance and sabotage to such a plan was also clearly visible, for this reason, in fact, both qualitatively and in terms of content, not only it did not become possible to form a new industrious parliament, but even also, as I mentioned above, a more unsuccessful supreme legislative body was created.

As far as the election messages and their impact on the public were concerned, I think the authorities made the biggest mistake in that matter. In this sense, it would have been better if it had been the way it was in the previous elections, not just to encourage people for elections but to leave them in deception. For example, I did not believe at all that there would be any innovation but tens of thousands of people believed that there would be innovations by having the feeling from the desire that comes from within and from the influence of the campaign. The loyalty shown in the nomination and registration of candidates has raised these expectations a bit, as well as a revival in society. A new, young, energetic, and well-educated public and political activists have begun to appear in the country. It was a great opportunity for the authorities to change but only those who did not know the authorities could believe it. The point here is not even to believe in the authorities. There have been calls from the community to improve their lives and country, but on election day it turned out that nothing had changed and all of the promises were lie. The rulers of Azerbaijan cannot comprehend the simple fact that lying and deceiving people not only increases the distrust and leeriness of the authorities but also their hatred and aggression. This is also exactly what happened this time. Hundreds of thousands of people, who have been deceived, also feel humiliated, and Ilham Aliyev's statement "if people did not agree, they would protest" was perceived by society as a mockery mixed with the actual threat. The impression is that the head of the country has a completely unrealistic view of the society led by him and therefore makes such inadequate statements. In this sense, the inclusion of persons, who were expelled and catcalled by voters, in parliament by traditional fraud seems to challenge people and society in some way that from the point of view of political evaluation, in the simplest terms, it can be called inconceivableness. As a result, I can say that the situation in the country is now completely out of the aspect of public-political relations and, therefore, we should expect that the technology of non-political struggle in the near future will prevail.

- What can we expect from the new parliament?

- Shortly, nothing. At least, nothing good. Approval of bills and orders from the Presidential Administration, stupid statements and explanations that cause irritation in society, touching human dignity and pride, shameful speeches at various international levels, etc. That's my expectation, unfortunately.

- There are opinions that this time, those who wanted to reform could not win the NAP and failed to achieve their wishes. It turns out that the NAP is already a force and is capable of defeating certain areas of government and reformers?

- Let me start with the fact that I do not see any reform that happened or expect any reform that will happen. There is a struggle to gain more authority and to gain greater authority in the distribution of resources among different groups, and one of those groups calls the plans they want to implement as reform. The NAP is also a very effective tool, deeply structured and deeply rooted in the hands of the other party. It seems that, as I have mentioned above, a party, that presents itself as a reformer, that is, the Pashayevs, could not properly assess the situation and, thus far, have not been able to achieve success. This was also expected because political success is not only achieved through financial and administrative resources, it requires political strategy, extensive networking, the necessary human resources, interaction with the community and, most importantly, fighting experience. Three years ago, criticism of the human resources policy of Pashayevs was angrily reacted whereas it would be better to investigate, analyze, and draw conclusions from it than to criticize it like that. However, this also requires adequate human resources, political will, and political tolerance. On the other hand, there have been instances in Soviet history where a man whom no one was expecting has made deep reforms after taking the lead. I mean Nikita Khrushchev, who came to power after Stalin and was the author of the most successful era of the Soviet Union in every sense. Perhaps, Mehriban Aliyeva is such a potential leader that she can really reform, but the fact is that she is not widely accepted by many in the government. Also by the close allies of Pashayevs today. I do not want to talk about the reasons for not having much to do with our topic.

- Following these rumors, it is stated that the reformer wing will soon gain power and even form a new party and announce early parliamentary elections. Do you think the new parliament will be long-lasting?

- Theoretically, everything can happen, but given that many of these issues depend on many internal and external factors, in practice, this scenario does not seem very convincing. Whether party-building or the dissolution of a newly-formed parliament again, each is a matter of scale. There are a time and human resources shortage. I'm still not talking about the resistance and other obstacles that such plans might face. Moreover, more flexible and less time-consuming scenarios are also possible but time will tell if they will be implemented.

- The President said that if the people of Azerbaijan were unhappy with these elections, they would raise their voice. However, we receive a lot of news on social networks, various actions, protests of the candidates, the sedentary rally of candidates in front of the CEC, and the news of the rally scheduled for the 16th of the month. Is it true that the president is unaware of all this, or does everything happen under his will?

- I think that President Ilham Aliyev has detailed information about what is happening in society but for some reason, he is just ignoring all the problems, as if he does not want to talk about or hear about the many problems in the country. His unsuccessful expression, as I have said before, was perceived as a kind of mockery in the society, as well as the ridiculing of his opponents and the many citizens who waited for the election. It is also interesting whether the happenings are under his will or not, this is an interesting question for me too, and my answer to that question is still negative. Ilham Aliyev has damaged the construction ensuring the government's existence and its self-defense mechanisms with steps taken in recent months. In these situations, all events occur only under the will of the "Your Majesty Chaos".

- On January 28, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution entitled "Threats to media freedom and the safety of journalists in Europe." The resolution acutely condemns the situation in Azerbaijan. On January 29, the OSCE ODIHR Observation Mission released a negative interim report on the eve of the parliamentary elections. On January 30, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a negative resolution on "Case study on information about political prisoners in Azerbaijan." The delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), who visited Baku on January 22-23 to assess the pre-election environment, gave a negative opinion. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Carrie Filipetti, called the Non-Aligned Movement, which is led by Azerbaijan, as a club of authoritarian regimes. The Index of Democracy, published by the British Economist Intelligence Unit among 167 countries, re-called the regime in Azerbaijan as an autocracy. Azerbaijan was ranked 147th out of 167 countries. Human Rights Watch (HRW), which is the organization that defends human rights, has released the next annual report on human rights in Azerbaijan, where Azerbaijan is among the leading countries in the field of human rights violations. A new round of corruption scandal has begun in Germany just 10 days before the elections in Azerbaijan. Could this election be the government's answer to all this?

- The government has been openly denying the criticism and notices of the international communities but in reality, it seeks closer relations with the West and the international communities and looks for new channels because its current status makes it depends entirely on one country – Russia. There is a need for some kind of balance, but in the West, they understand that the Azerbaijani government only needs this for maneuvering to protect itself. At the same time, there are two serious obstacles to these seekings: Firstly, the negative reputations of the Azerbaijani authorities force many international political circles and democratic governments to distance themselves from it. Secondly, excessive rapprochement with Russia creates annoyance in the West against our country, introducing Azerbaijan as a vassal of Russia, which further aggravates the negative attitude towards the country and its authorities. If we look at all these fundamental criticisms and any non-political and inadequate reactions to them, such attitudes can only aggravate the situation and lead to sanctions. Traditional lobbyists of the Azerbaijani authorities, most of whom are ordinary fraudsters, have no longer power to influence today's political realities, so the only way is to go to open and honest dialogue with the world and the international communities.

- What to do for the Azerbaijani parliament to preserve its image after this election? Should parliament be acknowledged as legitimate?

- First of all, extensive pardon and amnesty should be carried out in the country to eliminate the problem of political prisoners once and for all. Of course, with no new politically motivated arrests. If all the violations of the election are investigated and relevant decisions are taken, punished perpetrators of violence against people during the elections are punished, instead of giving a bribe to foreign lobbyists, compensation for at least financial damage is paid to unjustly arrested persons, the situation may change and this is just as important as water and air to Azerbaijan now. In order to take all these steps, it is necessary to give up the redundant arrogance, the complex of showing itself strong and begin to engage in a completely different relationship with the opponents. The denial of existing problems is not a way out of the situation. Let us not forget that another name for denialism is ignorance. Ignorance has not brought success to anyone yet.