Tehran meeting: 3+3 does not always 6

On Monday, October 23, Tehran will play host to a significant diplomatic gathering involving Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia, Iran, and Armenia, structured in the "3+2" format at the level of foreign ministers. Originally, this meeting was conceived as "3+3," with Georgia expected to participate, but the neighboring country opted out. Georgia had also abstained from attending the Moscow meeting in the same format, scheduled for 2021.

Iran's state news agency, IRNA, reports that the forthcoming meeting will delve into the complexities of South Caucasus issues and the advancement of regional cooperation.

While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan confirmed to "Turan" that the meeting will indeed proceed, the details remain undisclosed, with additional information expected to be shared in due course. MP Elman Nasirov, in an interview with Turan, shed light on the genesis of the "3+3" format, indicating that the idea materialized following the conclusion of the second Karabakh war. Nasirov remarked, "In December 2020, the initiative of Azerbaijan's President, Mr. Ilham Aliyev, and Turkey's President, Mr. Erdogan, ultimately paved the way for such a format."

The primary objective of this format is to address joint endeavors of these six nations concerning unresolved issues in the post-war period. Nasirov articulated, "It is true that Georgia doesn't actively participate in this process, despite being included in its name. Georgia also did not attend the Moscow meeting in this format, owing to significant issues awaiting resolution in Georgian-Russian relations. The rationale remains the same this time, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Georgia's participation may materialize in the future."

According to Nasirov, the intent of the current meeting's participants is to enable regional states to autonomously tackle regional issues, thereby mitigating external interference. He concluded that regional countries are better positioned to facilitate the establishment of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the signing of a peace treaty compared to non-regional actors.

Azer Gasimli, the head of the Institute of Political Management,  in an interview with Azadlig Radio offered his perspective to Azadligradios, contending that the "3+2" format should more accurately be referred to as "3+2-1" due to Armenia's nominal involvement. Gasimli characterized this format as explicitly anti-Western, created to exclude Western powers from influencing the region's affairs. He expressed skepticism about the format's potential, given Georgia's refusal to participate and Armenia's limited role, remarking, "For this format to hold promise, Georgia, and indeed Armenia, must realign with Russia. Only then can this format find a sustainable future. Alternatively, it may evolve into a '1+3' format, comprising Turkey, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. Even so, it remains challenging to encompass the entire region, leaving the format's prospects in doubt."