Arxiv
After the summit in Tehran on September 7, 2018, Erdogan, Rouhani and Putin meet this time in Sochi. The agenda is well known: the future of Syria and the role that these three countries will play in it. The famous journalist-analyst of Syrian origin, Hosni Makhallina (hi to Yashar Yakysh, Robert Fisk, Fehim Tashtekin and Cengiz Chandar), who best knows the Middle East and the Persian Gulf: "Putin and Ruhani speak on behalf of Assad, and Erdogan represents the Syrian civil and armed opposition" (newspaper "Korkusuz" ("Fearless"), February 13, "To be like Iran").
Who goes to Sochi five months after the summit in Tehran, having weaker positions? The only answer that anyone who can at least understand the situation can answer this question is undoubtedly: "Turkey."
This is explained by two main reasons- the first reason is that at the summit on September 12 in Teheran the President Vladimir Putin said, "There will be no cease-fire in Idlib". After the meeting with Erdogan in Sochi on September 17, he imposed on Ankara the liberation of Idlib from terrorists, which itself wanted to do this, and gave her a 25-day period to carry out this operation. However, Turkey has not fulfilled this commitment.
The second reason was the intention of Turkey, which in mid-December unexpectedly attempted to establish cooperation with the United States, to create a "security zone" on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
In response to this attempt by Ankara, Moscow reminded the Adan Agreement, signed between Turkey and Syria in October 1998, which further weakened Turkey"s position. Even Erdogan, who since the summer of 2011 considered Assad"s departure an indispensable condition for the settlement of the Syrian issue, personally stated that Ankara is seriously concerned with the Adan agreement.
At the meeting in Sochi, Erdogan will mainly try to persuade them to abandon the intention to create a "security zone" in northeastern Syria, because this venture is fraught with danger both to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria (the first condition of Damascus and Moscow), as well as Iran"s interests in the region .
On the other hand, Washington, in turn, seeks to create a military base in northwestern Iraq, and such close proximity of the two NATO countries to the territory of Syria and Iraq would represent a clear threat to the interests of Iran. However, can Ankara say a decisive "no" to the exhortations of Moscow and Tehran? This will become clear in the coming days.
It seems that the time expires when Ankara could skimp on its obligations to clean up Idlib from terrorists. In addition, the fact that, since September, the militants, instead of leaving Idlib, are even more consolidated there; they are too much test the patience with Moscow.
Almost half of 60 thousand terrorists in the region are Chechens. Of course, Russia does not want their return to the Caucasus. The fact that at the summit in Sochi Russia will persuade Erdogan to proceed to the most radical measures will not be surprise. You ask about plans for the future of Syria, do not you.
On the one hand, Washington announces that it will leave Ankara if Turkey joins the fight against terrorist organizations in the region led by ISIL. On the other hand, the likelihood that Moscow may already turn to pressure from exhortations due to the need to clear Idlib.
As if this was not enough, now every day 3.5 million Syrian refugees, concentrated in Turkey, more and more cause a headache, and President Erdogan is already talking about "sending them home." Is it possible to say with certainty about the future of any country with such a mess?
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