Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (third left) meets Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (second right), Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Chingiz Aidarbekov and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Turkic Council Secretary General Baghdad Amreyev and Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan Mukhtar Tleuberdi after inauguration ceremony of Turkic Council office in Budapest, Hungary on September 19, 2019. (AA)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (third left) meets Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (second right), Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Chingiz Aidarbekov and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Turkic Council Secretary General Baghdad Amreyev and Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan Mukhtar Tleuberdi after inauguration ceremony of Turkic Council office in Budapest, Hungary on September 19, 2019. (AA)

Nazarbayev proposed the development of the program "Turkic Vision - 2040", which should reflect the long-term goals of the Turkic-speaking community and ways to achieve them. "Thanks to this, we will give a significant impetus to strengthening cooperation in the priority areas for our states, such as foreign and soft power policies, trade and transit, tourism and investment, energy and the green economy, and small and medium-sized businesses," he said.

In addition, the chair pointed out the need for inclusion in the program of activities in the fields of culture and education, youth policy and healthcare, digitalization and artificial intelligence.

Evaluation of the eldest of the TC

"At the anniversary of our collaboration, we have achieved good results. Firstly, both from a global point of view and within ourselves, we have proved the relevance and relevance of our organization. Secondly, the Council included Uzbekistan and Hungary. Thus, we have opened a new page in our annals. Thirdly, our countries have formed a serious institutional architecture. Fourth, there is an increase in the credibility of the organization, both regionally and internationally. And fifthly, we adopted the concept of integration of the Turkic world," Nazarbayev said.

Noting that the TC has already matured for rebirth into the Organization of Turkic States - the "Organization of Turkic States", Nazarbayev proposed to consider this issue in the future.

The basis for optimism

The summits of heads of state and a rank lower by the Turkic states has begun immediately after the collapse of the USSR. The leading role in this played Turkey, which sought to consolidate its interests in the former expanses of the soviets and primarily in the five Turkic republics, as well as in the Turkic autonomies of Russia.

The first such summit took place in 1992; and then was held periodically with the participation of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The participation of these countries in the Turkic summits was due to the need for some solidarity in order to strengthen their acquired independence and security. However, the different paths and level of development of the countries, as well as the political interests of the elites, caused the removal of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from the initiative, which chose authoritarian styles of government and self-isolation. However, despite this, in October 23, 2009, the Turkic countries specified the contours of their self-organization by announcing at the summit in Nakhchivan the creation of a Turkic Council with more clear goals and objectives, where security and humanitarian cooperation were prioritized. Real results have been achieved in both areas. There is a close exchange of information in the field of organized crime and international terrorism, and especially in the light of the Syrian epic. In the humanitarian sphere, various events are regularly held and various projects are implemented within the framework of the International Organization of Turkic Culture (TURKSOY). In 2018, the first general textbook of Turkic history from ancient times to the 15th century was presented. In the same year, a meeting of the Third General Council of the Union of Turkic Universities was held. An Orkhon exchange program has been developed, which involves the addition of training programs in the areas of "International Relations" and "Political Sciences" with a Turkic component. The Turkic Academy was established in Nur-Sultan. The idea of ​​holding the First Sports Games among Turkic universities was also approved and implemented.

Reasons for Humanitarian Leadership

All peoples fighting for independence or gaining it rely in the implementation of the goal on their national identity, identity, which allows us to unite the individuals of these communities under a single idea. If we take a broader view, then a system of related communities is built along this path, united not only by common goals and objectives, but also by an ethnic community and root ties. In this case, the ability to unite the Turkic states is dictated by the coincidence of their goals and objectives - independence, security + cultural and historical heritage. In this sense, the inability to form a single Slavic coordinating structure, which has a foundation of cultural and historical heritage, but lacks common goals and objectives in matters of security and independence, in this case Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, etc., is indicative. It is possible to talk about a possible union of Slavic states, but without Russia, with most of which Moscow has an unhealthy relationship. Unified Slavic solidarity can be achieved only if Russia switches to a pro-Western vector that the "brothers" Slavs chose for themselves, but this is not possible under the current anti-Western political situation.

Russia and the Turkic world

In July this year, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia would be ready to join the CU if "this organization would be ready to accept states where the Turkic-speaking population is, but does not dominate." According to Russian statistics, 11 million people belonging to the Turkic ethnic group live in the Russian Federation.

Moscow has long been watching the process of consolidation of the Turkic states, without expressing at the official level its acceptance or rejection of this movement. This is largely because Russia through various interstate structures interacts with these countries, for example, the CIS, SCO, etc. The Kremlin retains influence on the elites of the former Soviet republics, because they continue to remain in the sphere of interests and influence of Russia. It is also worth noting the factor uniting Russia and the Turkic world - the resistance of authoritarian elites to the expansion of Western influence, as a source of danger to the personal interests of individuals belonging to such elite communities.

It is unlikely that Russia will join the TC, if only for the reason that in this case it will become one of the equal among the unequal with its obligations and limitations in actions. Then you will have to pay more attention to the situation of the Turkic peoples in Russia itself, to take into account the interests of the Turkic states in foreign relations with China, Iran, and the Arab world. In a word, such membership will lead to a drop in the influence of the Kremlin in the Turan space. Moscow prefers to continue to contemplate the events in the Turkic world and to develop the idea of ​​the cultural and historical community of Russians and Turks in the wake of anti-Western politics. In recent years, this worldview has been widely developed in the scientific and pseudoscientific circles of Russia.

Turkic Renaissance - China, Iran, Arabs

Just like Russia, China, Iran and the Arabs in the early and Middle Ages were influenced by the Turkic world through conquest, the interaction of cultures, and state formation. Today, the revival of Turkic calmness during the period of world crises, perestroika, and renewal cannot but worry countries of post-Turkic influence and government.

China, which seeks economic and political expansion in Central Asia and the post-Soviet space as a whole, is afraid of the influence of Turkic unity in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where there is noticeable national ferment among the Uyghur Turks, against whom Beijing is taking a hard line to suppress their ethnic expression. The Uighurs, nevertheless, in their struggle for the recognition of self-identity, rely on the religious factor, and specifically, on Islam. Beijing, on the other hand, fears a negative reaction from the CU to Uighur policies.

Persian Iran, a country where the Turks ruled for many centuries and which continue to maintain latent dominance in the Iranian elite and society, closely monitors the Turkic process, mainly due to the possible influence of Turkic consolidation on the growth of Turkic (Azerbaijani) nationalism. In Iran, Azerbaijani Turks are comparable in number to the Persians in the proportion of 30 to 30 million of Iran"s 81 millionth. This ratio cannot influence the future development path of Iran, which is pregnant with the post-Islamic revolution.

The Arab world, which is in direct contact with Turkey, is also concerned about the revival was the greatness of Turkey and its influence in the Middle East as the most powerful power in the Islamic world. The struggle for leadership after the Prophet Muhammad has always remained a painful topic in the Islamic world, where Arabs consider themselves chosen by God and look down at their Muslim brothers from other ethnic communities. The centuries-old Turkish dominion within the framework of the Ottoman Empire left them with both a trace of reverence and national infringement. Moreover, the Arab monarchies seek to spread their influence through supranational Islam in various parts of the world, especially in the Turan space. As an obstacle to the advancement of their interests, the Turkic union is visible, where the ethnic community dominates the religious.

At the current stage, the fears of these centers are excessively exaggerated because the TC does not express its attitude to the situation in countries with a Turkic population, diplomatically circumventing these issues, both because of the fragility of its emerging self-organization, and because of various interests in relations with China, Iran and the Arab world.

What can be the "Turkic vision of 2040" is difficult to say. However, given the dynamics of crises and perestroika in the Great East, the evolution of the TC, we can conclude that the Turkic factor will intensify with positive impulses for the region, due to the secular nature of Turkic identity. Historically, in the Turkic world, ethnic self-identification has stood above religious. The TC personifies this doctrine. This message emphasizes the participation of European, Christian Hungary in the Customs Union.

Hungarian phenomenon

In modern Hungary, the concept of the Turan origin of the Hungarians is steadily reproduced. It gradually shifts the doctrine of Finno-Ugric origin, which was established before the collapse of the social system. It seems that both have a basis. Turkic researchers recognize the Finno-Ugric group as related. Hungary is becoming increasingly involved in relations with Turkic countries. Especially at the humanitarian level, Hungary has become the traditional organizer of the annual Kurultays (meetings) of cultural significance of the Turkic peoples. There are opinions that Budapest rushed in the direction of Turan due to its economic interests and gaining preferences in this direction. However, this view does not hold water. We do not see such an example of the expression of our Turan identity in any European country. Even Russia, claiming the title of heir to the Great Steppe, cautiously looks at the revival and establishment of Turkic states on its southern borders. The Hungarian Turan manifestation, as mentioned above, is a derivative of the country's independence and the assertion of its national identity.

Hungary also sees as its mission the assistance to the Turkic states in joining the European Union. At the Baku summit, Prime Minister Viktor Orban literally declared, "We joined as observers to the Turkic Council, because we not only want to receive, but also to give something. What we Hungarians can offer to this Council is accession to Europe and the European Union. Therefore, in recent months we have created the European representation of the Turkic Council and, together with your foreign ministers, opened this permanent mission in Budapest. This is a permanent mission, where economic forums and any cultural events will be held. "

The revelation of Orban, representing a European country, can be seen as a favorable consolidated attitude of the West towards the Turkic Council, its goals and objectives.

Summary with continuation

The Turkic states have been formed first through periodic high-level meetings, then their structuring within the framework of the Turkic Council, then the return of Uzbekistan to the project, the upcoming inclusion of Hungary, and the idea of ​​turning the Council into an Organization. It testifies to the dynamics of consolidation and rapprochement of countries and peoples (potential of six states, 12 autonomous entities, 24 Turkic peoples and 86 Turkic ethnic groups and sub-ethnic groups in the world make up 170 million people).

Will the Turkic union become one of the dominant political and economic substances in the world after 20 years? Most probably not. These countries have to go the path of political and economic development. With the exception of Turkey, all other countries have weak economic and political foundations. The coming years will be spent on solving these problems. However, it should be expected that strengthening the interaction of the Turkic countries in various areas and their influence in world politics, at least at the regional level. For example, Azerbaijan, which hosted the heads of state of the Turkic world, made efforts to get support on the Karabakh issue and on the sidelines - and not without success.

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