The message of Zvezda TV on the plans to build in Azerbaijan a new radar station in Azerbaijan in 2017 instead of the outdated Gabala radar station is quite real. A security expert, head of the research center East-West Arastun Orujlu told Turan.
"It is possible that this information is a deliberate leak for the psychological preparation of the public. This fits into the logic of relations between Baku and Moscow in the recent years. It is enough to look at the list of heavy offensive weapons that Moscow supplies to Azerbaijan. Today, 90% of these weapons come precisely from Russia.
In addition, Baku has actually turned into a Kremlin ally in its anti-Western propaganda and accusations against the US and the West. Anti-Western statements by Azeri officials are edgy, provocative and even offensive," said Orujlu.
As for the legal side of things, the appearance of foreign military bases on the territory of Azerbaijan is prohibited by law. However, this is a purely technical matter and the same parliament will make the necessary changes to enable the emergence of a radar, the expert believes.
When asked how the West would react to such steps, Orujlu said that it will cause a backlash not only at the West, but also at Turkey and Iran. "Such abrupt and unilateral steps could lead to the fact that the West takes a more loyal stance on Karabakh separatists. Suffice it to recall the precedent of Kosovo, and a similar situation could happen in Karabakh.
"It is believed that the military and political rapprochement between Moscow and Baku is a concession from Azerbaijan in exchange for support in Karabakh. In particular, we are talking about the liberation of the territories around Karabakh. Moscow could agree to this, but the Kremlin will never completely betray the Armenians and to believe it would be a catastrophic mistake. This is when the West can decide on the recognition of Karabakh," said Orujlu.
Thus, this is a question of the loss of the sovereignty and dependence on Russia, but on the other hand it means the prospect of Western sanctions and further estrangement from Europe and the West in general. However, judging from the loud statements by the military and officials of Azerbaijan, they are ready for this risky game, he said. -02B-
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