Expert on Political Systems of Azerbaijan, Belarus

Baku / 12.08.20 / Turan: The further development of events after the presidential elections in Belarus will depend on the will of the people of the country, Anar Mammadli, an expert on elections, said in an interview with the Voice of America Azerbaijani service.

The authorities have shown that they reject demands to cancel the results of falsified elections and have chosen the path of harsh suppression of protests and mass arrests. This caused a sharp negative reaction from the international community, but the determination of the people in the struggle to cancel the election results will play a decisive role, Mammadli said.

Comparing the electoral systems of Azerbaijan and Belarus, the expert said that in the Slavic country it is more undemocratic.

Belarus is not included in the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights and has regressive regulations. However, in terms of civic engagement, Belarusians are more active than Azerbaijanis.

At the same time, both countries have a three-digit number of political prisoners, constant pressure on civil society and political leaders and a serious repressive machine, Mammadli said. In conditions of a tough political system and constant repression, opposition political groups and parties in Azerbaijan have retained their existence.

Could the Ukrainian scenario, where a violent confrontation led to a change of power, repeat in Belarus?

To this question, Mammadli said that in Belarus the reason for the protests is the people's desire to have an honest government that does not deceive the society. People want power accountable to the people. They are tired of seeing the same person who falsifies elections every time for 26 years.

“This is not a question of geopolitical choice, joining military alliances, etc.,” Mammadli said.

When asked about the impact of events in Belarus on its bilateral relations with Azerbaijan, Mammadli replied that the change of power in Minsk will not please official Baku. Previous warm relations will cool down and questions may arise about joint business projects. However, this will not lead to any serious contradictions between the two countries. For in geopolitical terms, the question of choice is not worth it. Belarus, like Azerbaijan, is a member of the EU's Eastern Partnership.

Changes in this country can even give a positive impetus to the processes in Azerbaijan. On the contrary, Lukashenka’s preservation of power contributes to the formation of a close alliance of the authoritarian regimes. Therefore, political changes in Belarus will only benefit the people of Azerbaijan, Mammadli said.

At the same time, the preservation of Lukashenka's power may lead to deterioration in relations between Belarus and the EU and even sanctions against Minsk. For example, the EU can impose economic sanctions and an embargo on Belarusian goods.    -06B-