In an interview with the radio "Voice of America" the head of the “Caspian Barrel” Oil Research Center, Ilham Shaban talked about the problems caused by the fall in oil prices, the influence of this factor on energy projects, as well as the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe markets.
Speaking about the impact drop in world oil prices on Azerbaijan, Ilham Shaban cited the statement of the Russian Minister of Finance, who said that after the imposition of sanctions against Russia, as well as the fall in oil prices, Russia lost about $ 200 billion. However, the relevant structures of Azerbaijan say nothing about this connection, said Shaban. If the oil price in 2013 was $ 109 per barrel, in 2014 - $ 101. Nothing is noted about Azerbaijan’s losses in this regard. In January, the average daily exports of Azerbaijani oil totaled 700,000 barrels. If we assume that the daily price of oil fell at the rate of one or two dollars, the loss amounted to about $700,000.
Asking the question whether the revision of the state budget of Azerbaijan is possible in connection with the fall in oil prices, Ilham Shaban said that the current budget was compiled on the basis of the average export price of $90 per barrel. According to Shaban, in 2015 the average price of oil will not be above $ 60 a barrel.
"I want to mention some figures. If the oil price is $60 per barrel the tax revenues from oil will be less than 600 million manat. Compared with 2014 the revenue of the State Oil Fund will be by $5.5 billion less than a forecast," said Shaban.
As for delays in delivery of Azerbaijani gas to European markets, the expert believes that "here, too, the process is very complicated." "In fact, unclear and complicated remains a very policy official Brussels and the European countries in this regard. If we consider the Southern Gas Corridor as the unity of the gas pipeline network, which will be implemented at the same time, the for some reason the length of TANAP 1,910 km will be completed in Turkey as early as 2018, and TAP, with length of 870 km, will be completed only in 2020. That is, the Azerbaijani gas will go to the European market only in the second quarter of 2020. From this perspective, it is not clear how Europe is sincere in the matter of importing Azeri gas to their markets," said Ilham Shaban.
In his view, Europe should be interested in accelerating the realization of the Southern Gas Corridor in the context of a possible termination in 2019 the Russian gas transit through Ukraine. -03B04-
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