Baku / 10.12.18 / Turan: The convincing victory of Nikol Pashinyan"s team at the parliamentary elections in Armenia will be important not only for this country, but also for the entire region and possibly for the geopolitical situation, the former Secretary of the President of Azerbaijan and well-known political scientist Eldar Namazov said.
"First of all, the elections on December 9 completed the process of transition of power, which began in Armenia in April of this year. Over the past months, the Pashinyan team has already done a lot, but yesterday's victory reflects the desire of society for real change," said Namazov.
At the same time, he noted that only a third of the voters voted purely arithmetically for Pashinyan and his supporters, given that 48% of voters, among whom some had cast votes for Pashinyan"s opponents, voted.
"Nevertheless, the My Step and Enlightened Armenia movements gained an absolute majority in the parliament and will be able to carry out constitutional reforms.
However, having received full legislative power, the new government will receive a new problem - the absence of real opposition in the parliament. This means that the united opposition in the person of the Republican Party, Dashnaktsutyun and other forces will fight with the authorities in a non-legal field - in the street, which is extremely dangerous," said Namazov.
Answering the question of how the foreign policy orientation of Armenia will change, the political scientist noted that only 20% of the new parliament is represented by the so-called pro-Russian forces in the face of supporters of Gagik Tsarukyan from the Prosperous Armenia party.
"There is little doubt that the new government in Armenia will be pro-Western, despite the fact that Pashinyan every time emphasizes the strategic nature of relations with Russia and claims that there will be no changes in foreign policy.
However, the entire previous policy of Pashinyan and his supporters suggests the opposite: they will go to the West as much as they can or as far as Moscow will allow them to," Namazov underlined.
On the question of how profitable it is for Russia to keep Armenia in its orbit, the political scientist stressed that the economic benefit in this case is not decisive.
"Despite the fact that today Russia actually keeps Armenia, the economic side is of secondary importance. In the first place are geopolitical interests. For Moscow, as before, the main task is not to let the West represented by the United States, the European Union and NATO come to the region.
For the sake of this strategic goal, Russia will tolerate and in every way "slow down" Pashinyan and his team.
On the whole, a situation is emerging that resembles events in Ukraine after Yushchenko came to power. Moscow seemed to accept his victory, but immediately began to prepare and strengthen the pro-Russian forces. This process was not one year, but ended in victory for Yanukovych. I think Moscow will go the same way in Armenia," said Namazov.
What should be expected in the issue of the Karabakh settlement? Answering this question, Namazov noted the discussion of the last weeks and even months, when in Armenia and Karabakh the opponents of Pashinyan accused him of preparing to surrender the territories around Karabakh, and even Karabakh itself.
Sasun Mikaelyan, one of the closest supporters of Pashinyan, said the victory of the Velvet Revolution was more important than the victory in Karabakh. This statement was used by Pashinyan"s opponents as "evidence of betrayal and confirmation of plans to surrender Karabakh."
"But what is most interesting, it was Sasun Mikaelyan who received the most votes from among the leaders of the movement My Step. This can be regarded as a change in the moods of the Armenian society and their actual agreement with the opinion that Karabakh is second for Armenians," said Namazov.
The political scientist also believes that the Pashinyan team can go on to make the negotiation process on the settlement more open and begin a public discussion in order to shape public opinion.
"Currently, the Armenian society is not ready for what the governments of Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan agreed to. We are talking about the principles of settlement, which developed the OSCE Minsk Group. These principles imply the liberation of 7 regions around Karabakh and the return of Azerbaijanis there.
However, the Armenian society is not ready for this even with the status granted to Karabakh. This raises serious questions from international mediators and the well-known interview of the former US Ambassador in this regard is vivid evidence of this. Therefore, without changing the mood in society, it will be impossible to count on progress in the settlement issue," Eldar Namazov concluded. -02B-