The tandem enters a decisive phase

The modernization of the presidential system includes structural and personnel perturbation. In fact, in the fall, President Ilham Aliyev included the last stage of cleaning up the old cadres not only in his presidential apparatus, but also in the whole system of power. It can be expected that this process will end in the spring of next year - partially before the election and finally after. This fall, such influential functionaries as the head of the presidential administration, Ramiz Mehdiyev, the minister of internal affairs, Ramil Usubov, and the president’s assistant for socio-political affairs, Ali Hasanov, lost their posts.

During this time, there has been an increase in staffing, which is under the influence of First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva. Today, the Aliyev’s tandem, it can be said, has formed a cadre of executives who have no claim to power and personal influence, which allows focusing team members mainly on working for the state, rather than developing and strengthening their private interests, as happened before today. This is no longer bad in terms of the efficiency of high officials.

The dissolution of the parliament and the formation of a new deputy corps can be considered as an important auxiliary part of the perturbation of the structural and personnel side of the executive branch. The new composition of the parliament will most likely be determined with the participation of the first vice president. If to look at its approach to the formation of the cadre potential of the highest executive power, it can be predicted that the composition of the parliament will be noticeably rejuvenated using the criteria of education and professionalism. This will ensure the parliament’s transaction from the structure approving the decisions of the executive into legislative and proactive. Of course, one should not expect at this stage the transfer of control over the government to the parliament, although it can be expected that the opponent’s functions will be expanded.

The line of behavior demonstrated by the president shows that the elections would be held in the traditional way - without changing the election legislation, the composition of election commissions, and under the control of the executive branch. As before, the president does not see the presence of the opposition within the walls of the parliament and on the eve held a two-month campaign to discredit it, using various platforms from domestic to international events. In some cases it was not unsuccessful, which manifested itself in the crisis around the Musavat party, whose name is inclined to provide opposition documents to people who want to emigrate to Europe.

The support of external centers of power to the process that initiate the Aliyevs is striking. USA, EU, Russia are also cautious and prudent in their actions with respect to the Aliyev administration. With the exception of a sharp negative reaction to the dispersal of the rally on October 19, all other actions are monitored and taken into account, which can be considered as approval of the new policy. In this respect, the visits of the First Vice President to France and Russia, which have demonstrated support for all undertakings and subsequent actions of the tandem, can be called landmark.

The first of the two centers are interested in carrying out reforms that should lead to the integration of Azerbaijan into civilized space and civil liberties, and the third in the progressive satisfaction of their economic ambitions. The general question uniting the interests of power centers on the situation in Azerbaijan is the preservation of stability and security in the evolutionary period.

Undoubtedly, the latest changes can be seen as a continuation of positive trends after years of political and economic stagnation. However, it must be taken into account that these changes are the result of the pressure of the crisis and the growth of public protest moods and external claims, which in combination requires the Aliyev administration to fulfill constitutional and international obligations.