Turkish political scientist: "It is conceivable that Russia will strengthen its relations with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus"

The interview with Merve Bayrakçı, a well-known expert on disputed regions in the world, by Turan News Agency

"The existence of the TRNC flag on the website of the Organization of Turkic States is a situation that eliminates pessimism"

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Turan: After the 44-day war, the issue of the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus came to the fore. Turkish columnists keep this topic on the agenda even now. What opportunities does the recognition of TRNC by Azerbaijan bring to it?

Bayrakçı: You know that the “recognition” of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is a complicated issue. Part of the community has lost hope regarding the recognition of TRNC. Because, so to speak, Cypriot Turks spent their lives hoping for it. And already some of the Northern Cypriot Turks express their concern, "We have not seen this country recognized, and we are afraid that our grandchildren will not be able to see it either." However, a part of the public still keeps this hope alive. In particular, when the 44-day war ended with the victory of Azerbaijan, Cypriot Turks, along with the world, have seen that unresolved issues can be resolved either by military or political decisions. However, it must be said that despite the rising hopes that Azerbaijan would officially recognize TRNC after the 44-day war, we could not see this coming true. In particular, although concrete steps were expected to be taken by Azerbaijan on July 20, the Peace and Freedom Day of TRNC, all remained at the level of expectation. That is why the words "One nation, three states" could not come true between TRNC, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

Turan: The Organization of Turkic States also accepted TRNC as an observer member. When do you think true membership will happen?

Bayrakçı: The hopeless picture I talked about was changed by TRNC's acceptance as an observer member of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). I can say that this created a festive mood among a part of the TRNC community. Placing the TRNC flag on the official website of the Organization of Turkic States as a result of observer membership made the Turkish Cypriots proud. However, there are many people in the community who think that TRNC will never be able to become a member of the Organization of Turkic States, citing EU, US, and some UN member countries as the reason that this is not true membership. We cannot predict whether TRNC's full-fledged membership in OTS will be realized or not. This can happen at the request of OTS member states. The occurrence of this will naturally mean the recognition of TRNC. This situation will be the process that will bring peace to Northern Cyprus, which is oppressed under embargoes.

Turan: Are there any problems in traveling between Turkey and TRNC? If so, can you provide examples of this?

Bayrakçı: Some unpleasant events happened between Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus during the tenure of former president Mustafa Akıncı. This process resulted in Ankara supporting Ersin Tatar, not President Mustafa Akıncı, in the presidential election held on November 15, 2020. However, at that time, Akıncı’s supporters made allegations that Turkey supported Ersin Tatar and interfered in the election. Politicians, journalists, and intellectuals were among those who put forward these claims.

After the presidential election, Mustafa Akıncı's communications coordinator Ali Bizden refused to allow him to enter Turkey citing G-82 code (activities against national security). After Bizden, 7 Turkish Cypriots, including members of parliament and journalists, were banned from entering Turkey with G-82 and N-82 codes. This situation created concern among the Turkish Cypriots by interpreting it as “Opponents are being punished.”

Turan: At present, is the possibility of TRNC being recognized by the world weak or strong?

Bayrakçı: The main obstacle to the recognition of TRNC by the UN member states is the resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council in 1983. You know that on November 15, 1983, 3 days after the declaration of TRNC, on November 18, 1983, the Republic of Cyprus was recognized as the only state of the island by Resolution No. 541 adopted by the UN Security Council. According to this resolution, the existence of TRNC is not recognized by any UN member country except Turkey. Furthermore, according to Resolution No. 550 adopted by the UN Security Council on May 11, 1984, the UN characterizes the presence of the Turkish army on the island as an “occupation” without ignoring any international decision. According to the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, TRNC cannot be recognized by the UN member states. However, instead of this, the idea that the decisions of the UN Security Council are no longer binding is being brought up. Professor Hüseyin Işıksal, adviser to the TRNC president on international relations and diplomacy, answered my question on the issue as follows: Despite UN Security Council resolutions that Jerusalem will be the capital of both Palestine and Israel, Israel has unilaterally declared Jerusalem as its capital, and the Donald Trump administration has recognized this decision. Here, the United States, a member of the UN Security Council, trampled on its own decision. Despite the UN Security Council resolution that the Golan Heights belong to Syria, Israel declared the Golan Heights its territory. The Trump administration has accepted this as well and has fallen into a new self-contradiction. There are hundreds of such decisions and resolutions." As Professor Hüseyin Işıksal said, many such examples can be given. Kosovo's independence is one of them. Moreover, new claims regarding the recognition of TRNC are being brought up these days, when the Russian-Ukrainian war continues. In my opinion, taking into account Russia's relations with Greece and South Cyprus, the claims for the recognition of TRNC should also be given importance. The US Department of State announced in September that it had lifted the arms embargo against Southern Cyprus. After that, the news came that the US New Jersey Army National Guard will train the National Army of South Cyprus. As a result, because of their cooperation with the United States, can Russia open a diplomatic representation even though it does not recognize TRNC as a diplomatic maneuver while being angry with Greece and South Cyprus? I will answer your question with a question: do you think Russia will recognize TRNC?