Although Pashinyan has weakened, he perseveres

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- Ahmad bey, the situation in Armenia became complicated after the signing of a trilateral statement between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia on the suspension of military operations. There are frequent protests against Prime Minister Pashinyan. Political arrests have increased. The number of resignations and dismissals has increased. What could be the result of all this?

- Of course, everything led to the weakening of Pashinyan’s political position. But contrary to many expectations, Pashinyan was politically literate. Pashinyan came to the Armenian parliament in the first days of the war and said that “the document on the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan is on the table, if you want, I will sign this agreement”. The Armenian parliament said “no”. This was the second day of the war. A week later, he addressed the same question to the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. If you remember, before the Jabrayil operations, there were rumors about Pashinyan’s visit to Khankendi on October 5. I think that during that visit, Pashinyan asked the same question to the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the result shows that they also did not agree to the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, the return of 7 districts to Azerbaijan, and the postponement of status. Pashinyan later signed the tripartite statement because, as he said, he was advised by the military. In other words, the military insisted on this issue. In other words, Pashinyan tried to make the decisions collectively, not alone. And he succeeded. Therefore, I think that in the current situation, the resignation of Pashinyan should be logical. But as everyone expected, it will not happen soon. These processes will take some time to complete. In many respects, Pashinyan did not act as a populist politician but as a politically literate person. And it raised the issue of sharing responsibilities. Therefore, although the result is clear, the question now is when Pashinyan will leave power and who will replace him. These questions are more relevant in the current situation.

- Apparently, Pashinyan does not intend to resign. But will he be able to be tall in the saddle until the end?

- Pashinyan still has many resources. There is still a social base that supports it. At present, he himself shows that Pashinyan is not the only one to blame for the decisions made and the poor performance of the army. The previous government had put the army in a situation where it was impossible to achieve results. Pashinyan has not been able to achieve any change in two years. With this argument, Pashinyan will be able to maintain a certain social base. The fact that he has a certain social base and that they have recently taken to the streets of Yerevan to express their support for Pashinyan shows that Pashinyan has the opportunity to withstand. But it will be difficult for Pashinyan to stay in power until the next elections. The best option for Pashinyan now is to weaken the process as much as possible, share responsibility for the process with other politicians, and hand over power to his own man after a period of stabilization. This may be a person outside the Karabakh clan. He may even hand over power to his wife. The point is that there is already an opinion in the expert community about Pashinyan’s resignation. But the question - "when will Pashinyan resign and will he be able to hand over power to his own man?" - is more interesting now.

- If Pashinyan resigns or is dismissed, what will be the fate of the joint statement? Can a new person in his place violate the requirements of the document by saying that he did not sign the statement?

- I do not think that when the Azerbaijani side signed this statement, it meant that Pashinyan will comply with the requirements of the document until the end. Even Serzh Sargsyan drafted the new Constitution in 2018 in such a way that there is a point that a person may not sign the agreement by resigning. In this way, he/she can absolve himself of responsibility. In other words, the new Constitution of Armenia allowed Pashinyan to avoid the issue altogether and the president, who has the authority to sign after him, and then the speaker of the parliament not to sign the document. In this case, there would be a crisis in the Constitution and the document will not have the signature of any Armenian leader. The Azerbaijani side acted so that this document was signed by the current leader in Armenia - the Prime Minister. It was very important for Azerbaijan for this date. Because it legitimizes the victory of Azerbaijan. The existence of such a signature, and at a later stage, the implementation of the paragraphs specified in the document, will be determined entirely in the context of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. If the provisions of the statement are not implemented, it may be by Russia's decision. At a later stage, Armenia will not have any involvement in this implementation. This will be determined by the Azerbaijani-Russian relations, the intensity and quality of relations between Baku and Moscow. The liberation of Aghdam from the Armenians showed that the implementation of the paragraphs has already begun. The last point to be considered in the statement is when the city of Lachin itself will be liberated, i.e. in 3 years or now, and we will know this only on December 1.

- In the current situation, does Pashinyan’s tenure benefit the Armenian people more or the countries interested in resolving the Karabakh conflict?

- The biggest factor that helps Pashinyan to stay in power is that there is no answer to the question -"who can replace him in power after that?". There is no consensus inside or outside Armenia or within the diaspora to make the replacement of Pashinyan with someone else possible. Pashinyan looked like an ideal candidate in 2018. He was described as a person who strengthened the image of Armenia as a democratic country. The Armenian diaspora, especially members of the diaspora in the United States, played a special role in his coming to power. But in the current situation, the question of who can replace him is very open. Russia is expected to take an active part in this. The person Russia wants to bring to power will be Robert Kocharyan or anyone he wants. At the same time, the leaders have experience working with Russian special services. The Kremlin likes to work with such people. Therefore, Vanetsyan has great potential in this direction in Armenia. It should be noted that the experience of the heads of special services in creating a party is one of the rare moments in world history. We can look for Russia's trace in the formation of the party by the former special services in Armenia. That is why there is uncertainty over who can replace Pashinyan, rather than who benefits from his stay in power. It should not be forgotten that there may also be Pashinyan’s candidate. We see propaganda about his wife Anna Hakobyan. The issue of creating her image is actively on the agenda. If Pashinyan is able to withstand, one of the possible options is not to stay in power but to hand over power to Anna Hakobyan.

- At the beginning of the military operation, there were rumors that the main reason for Russia's non-interference and non-support for Armenia was to punish the pro-Western Pashinyan and that these operations will continue until Pashinyan kneels down and turns his face to Russia. How much truth was there in these rumors?

- There were forces in the Kremlin that wanted to punish Pashinyan. But this was not the main line of Russian policy. If it had been the main line, Putin would not have defended Pashinyan in a recent interview when asked if he was a traitor. If the Kremlin leader wanted to take revenge on Pashinyan, he would not defend him. Russia also helped Armenia. In fact, the potential, modern weapons presented by Azerbaijan almost defeated the joint Russian and Armenian troops. The only difference was that Russia did not participate openly. Russia did not send ethnic soldiers to Karabakh. In all other forms, Russia has expressed its support for Armenia. This is confirmed by the statements of Armenian officials, as well as in the last speech of the Russian leadership. The biggest support for Armenia was due to the reduction of Azerbaijan's air superiority that the Russian leadership has taken serious measures in this direction. Russia has made every effort to help Armenia. Given that the number of tanks destroyed by Azerbaijan is too high for a country like Armenia, it is possible that Russia had given its tanks at the 102^nd base to Armenia. Therefore, it is incorrect to say that Russia did not help. Another point is that from the very first day in Russia, it was said that it is more interesting who attacks than who is attacked. In other words, the fact that Azerbaijan was the executor of the attack was more important to Russia than the fact that Armenia was the target of the attack. The role of Azerbaijan is very important for Russia in the current situation. Russia has begun to assess Azerbaijan's potential in the implementation of many strategic projects, especially in the direction of Turkey and Iran. These factors have played an important role in Russia's decision in the current situation. After the liberation of Shusha, Russia realized that it could lose a lot in the Caucasus. After this process, Russia overcame the last barriers and tried to stop the conflict at all costs and managed to stop.

- In his address to the people on the liberation of Aghdam, President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, said, "Let him fold the Armenian flag, put it in his pocket, and go and live in another country." What was the president referring to here? Is it possible that after sending off Pashinyan in Armenia, Russia will bring its man to power there, and then Armenia's independence will be called into question gradually?

- The idea of ​​Armenia's accession to Russia as a separate entity has long been discussed among experts. Russia has the province of Kaliningrad within Europe, and Russia has no land connection with this province. But Russia can travel to this area very easily. We saw during the war that Russian flags appeared on the border, and now Russian flags are widely used in the Armenian-populated areas of Karabakh. Therefore, the President of Azerbaijan sends a message to many European countries that the failure to take the necessary steps to resolve the conflict has led Armenia to hand over its sovereignty to Russia and eventually become a federal entity like Kaliningrad within Russia. It is possible that President Aliyev is aware of some of the closed-door talks. His awareness also allows him to voice this idea right now. After a while, when Russia began to work on making Armenia its federal subject, it would become clear that President Aliyev foresaw the process. The President of Azerbaijan shows that he sees the processes taking place in the region, assesses the threats and opportunities.