Russia is not interested in Armenia's withdrawal from the zone of its influence

***

- What can you say about the outcome of the meeting between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Russia?

-The meeting once again confirmed that Russia does not want the accelerated withdrawal of Armenia from its control. Even before the meeting, the Armenian President said that "it would be naive to expect any result from this meeting." Indeed, it was hardly worth expecting Russia to offer Armenia a new roadmap. On the other hand, Armenia is not in a position to completely move away from Russia. During this meeting, the existing projects between Russia and Armenia were more affected.

The talk is the supply of the Russian gas to Armenia, the participation of the Russian Federation in the modernization of the Hrazdan nuclear power plant, the growth of investments by Russian entrepreneurs in the Armenian economy.

Naturally, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was also discussed. The Russian side called on Armenia to make compromises.

Pashinyan's answer to Putin "To compromise before the threats of Azerbaijan would look like our weakness" was in fact an attempt to move the arrows in the other direction.

In fact, Russia has made sure that the Armenian Armed Forces will take part in the humanitarian mission in Syria. This should be understood as compelling Russia to again operate in Armenia within its own interests.

After Pashinyan"s coming to power in Armenia, the relations between Yerevan and Moscow became somewhat colder. Therefore, it was expected that the meeting between Pashinyan and Putin would take place in a tense atmosphere. However, after the meeting, Pashinyan said that the talks were held in normal conditions. Is it possible that tension between the two countries has already been eliminated, or is Pashinyan maneuvering with Moscow on the eve of early parliamentary elections, which he wants to lead temporarily?

- In reality, it was inevitable that Pashinyan would be in a tense state at the meeting.

-His forced release of Robert Kocharyan and suspension of the CSTO Secretary General's persecution testifies that he is preparing for a visit to Moscow with a relaxed position. Neither the Russian press, nor the Armenian media either wrote that either Pashinyan had shown some kind of tough stance in the negotiations with Putin. Pashinyan's only message was: "Do not interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia." And this is a normal call, and any head of state makes such statements when there is interference in his state. Therefore, this meeting did not change anything. At this meeting, there was no trace of aggressive anti-Russian statements that sounded inside Armenia.

- Azerbaijan expected the results of this meeting because of the Karabakh conflict. When Russia's relations with Pashinyan's government cooled, Moscow made statements that met the interests of Azerbaijan. The ideas of the return of the occupied lands were often heard. Moscow and Yerevan reconciled, does it mean that such talks will decrease?

- The talks that Azerbaijan expected something special from this meeting were an invention of our press. The leadership of Azerbaijan did not expect anything new from this meeting. Our press wrote that Putin allegedly will discuss with Pashinyan the issue of Azerbaijan's joining the CSTO. However, Azerbaijani officials did not say anything like that. Moreover, during his visit to Croatia, the President (Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev) announced Azerbaijan's intention to expand cooperation with NATO. As for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, nothing new has been discussed either. If it was discussed, but nothing significant.

Because of Putin's lack of a plan proposing something new to resolve the conflict, it is not clear that he could discuss with Armenia in this direction. The maximum that he could offer is to come to a common compromise, agreement in negotiations with Azerbaijan. For Putin, the main thing is that the parties do not lose the potential for negotiations, they do not go to confrontation, they would not undermine the stable period of the South Caucasus policy of Russia.

- In early September, the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia met in Sochi. Then Putin and Pashinyan met. At the end of September, Putin's visit to Azerbaijan is planned. Although the content of the negotiations behind closed doors is not known, it is clear that the Karabakh issue is mainly discussed. However, we do not know what exactly is being discussed. Maybe you will share your assumptions. What do these intensifying meetings and talks say? What can be the results of this?

- The main interest of the Azerbaijani side in expanding relations with Russia is its assistance in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In no other issue Azerbaijan needs intervention and support from Russia. On the contrary, Moscow has the ability to create obstacles in all ambitious projects of Azerbaijan. Therefore, the country's leadership is doing everything possible to remove obstacles to the Russian Federation. I believe that at all meetings the Azerbaijani side raises the question of Russia's influence on Armenia in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Taking into account Russia"s ability to interfere in the internal affairs of the former Soviet republics, it has a lever of interference in the political processes of Azerbaijan. Moscow has always had the opportunity to threaten Baku with the deportation of Azerbaijanis. However, Azerbaijan managed to prevent this every time.

- By the way, for a long time the issue of Azerbaijan's membership in the CSTO is being discussed. Is it possible to discuss this issue with the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- It became known from Pashinyan's statement made during the trip to Tavush region that he did not discuss this issue with Putin. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev's statement in Croatia on improving relations with NATO shows that talks about the possible membership of Azerbaijan in NATO do not correspond to reality. I have not heard serious comments from the Azerbaijani officials on this matter.

- In general, what can you say about the processes taking place in the region? What is Russia going to do now?

- The processes taking place in the region show that competition between Russia and Europe is continuing to increase its influence in the region. Russia has a powerful base of influence in the region.

Europe is increasingly showing interest in maintaining control over political processes in the region. The example of Georgia shows that Europe strives to integrate this region according to its standards. Because Russia has no integration potential, the political potential and potential of civil society in Europe will grow in the region. Russia will always try to use methods of threats and pressure, which has no prospects. -0-