Azerbaijan in integration processes

It was exactly a century ago that Azerbaijan became a member of the Transcaucasian Federation, which for a short time united three republics of the South Caucasus (South Caucasus). For a longer period, another formation existed: on March 12, 1922, a conference of representatives of the CEC of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia adopted the Union Treaty on the Formation of the Federative Union of Soviet Socialist Republics of Transcaucasia on the basis of close military, political and economic cooperation. The Transcaucasian Federation existed in the USSR until 1936, after which it was liquidated in connection with the adoption of the new Constitution.

Political dimension

Since the first half of the 90's of the 21st century the idea of ​​a common Caucasian home that was actualized during the collapse of the USSR began to be actualized. In 1992, at the state level, this idea was put forward by E. Shevardnadze. During the visit of H.Aliyev to Georgia in March 1996, the "Manifesto on peace, security and cooperation in the Caucasus region" was also included among the bilateral documents, which was called the Tbilisi Declaration. Then came the meeting of the Presidents of the Azerbaijan Republic, Georgia and Armenia and Russia in Kislovodsk in 1997, and the declaration "For peace, economic and cultural cooperation in the Caucasus" was signed. The pact on regional cooperation was discussed at the Istanbul Summit in November 1999. All these declarations, however, changed little on a regional scale, except for the establishment of bilateral contacts (Georgia-Azerbaijan, Georgia-Armenia). The idea of ​​regional cooperation was enthusiastically picked up by the West, seeking to minimize Russia's role. A new phenomenon of post-Soviet reality was the topic of regional security of the South Caucasus put forward by the EU and US countries. In international forums, the project of the South Caucasus Community was debated within the framework of a federal state, which in the long term could become a member of the EU. Such an association, which involves mutual restriction of the sovereignty of the participating countries, coordination and joint security provision, according to Western political scientists, could favor the achievement of compromises and, ultimately, the peaceful resolution of ethnic conflicts. However, most regional analysts pessimistic about the prospects for such integration, arguing that the people of the South Caucasus are at that stage of national self-consciousness that was characteristic of the countries of Western Europe in the 19th century, which is still far from the integration processes of Europe in the twentieth century. The main factors objectively hindering this process are certainly the presence of military conflicts in the South Caucasus and the ethnic, authoritarian style of government in the republics.

On the wreckage of the former Soviet Union, the CIS emerged, among the participants of which already formed separate blocks - GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova), the Customs Union, the Eurasian Union, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization.)

During the years of independence, the states of the region, one way or another, have mastered various forms of integration. CIS even the leadership of Russia is recognized as "a form of civilized divorce of the former Soviet countries." Apparently, such unions as GUAM, the Democratic Initiative of the post-Soviet, Baltic and a number of other Eastern European countries aimed at eradicating the new authoritarianism, the Black Sea Initiative and a number of other projects are of a temporary nature. Despite the fact that they are of a conjectural nature, these projects have caused serious concern for Moscow, which is trying to find answers to new geopolitical challenges by forming its own integration structures among individual CIS members, the concept of the Eurasian Union and the development of the potential of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Ethnocracy (one state language - the actual and formal privilege of the title people) is an obstacle to integration. Only a clear understanding by the states themselves of the advantages of uniting in the form of a federation, confederation or other structure can have a vital potential.

As motivating reasons, a combination of internal motivation and an external factor is possible. Imposing is a direct directive indicating what was done in the Soviet era, and in the first by the Turkish Federation (TR), which directly stated that while the countries of the South Caucasus do not form a single state, it will not negotiate with them. Thus, in the near future it will be possible to observe a decline in interest in the problem of integration for several reasons:

1. The long confrontation between the West and Russia;

2. The growth of international terrorism, which pushes the problems of conflict resolution to the background;

3. The growing struggle between the EU / US and Russia for post-Soviet states that have not made the final geopolitical choice.

In this respect, the situation in the South Caucasus is critical, which, it seems, is again transferred to the zone of Russia's political influence. In this regard, it will be interesting to observe how the EU is going to transform the program "Eastern Partnership". So far, the agreements have been signed with the EU by Armenia and Russia. The next round of negotiations between Azerbaijan and the EU on a new agreement on strategic partnership is scheduled for April 2018. The head of EU diplomacy F.Mogherini did not rule out that the talks could be concluded in the near future.

It is no less interesting how the US will continue to use the technologies of "color revolutions", "hybrid wars" and "Arab spring". The challenges and risks not only speed up the choice by the countries of the South Caucasus of a new defense alliance that can protect against the war approaching their borders, but also change the picture of the established world order. Finally, the Shia-Sunni war has, though not great, but very real chances to turn into a third world war. But remaining within the framework of the "ordinary - local Muslim war" it will lead to a significant redrawing of borders and possibly the emergence of new states (autonomies) in the Middle East and other regions. Iraq, Libya and Syria are already involved in this process, which can be called federalization-disintegration. In the queue, perhaps, are Turkey and Iran.

Meanwhile, today, apart from the strategic format (Azerbaijan-Turkey), one can also speak of a trilateral (Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey) political format. In 2012, in Trabzon, the sides signed a declaration on cooperation in the foreign policy area, touching upon the problem of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts.

Integration vectors of the South Caucasus, probable by virtue of the prevailing realities, have three directions:

1. The way to the EU;

2. Local integration under the US umbrella

3. And, finally, less likely, but not completely eliminated, integration, which is still determined by the region's considerable attachment to the Russian Federation.

In the latter case, a broad integration option involving Iran and Turkey (minimum) and even the countries of Central Asia, China and India (maximum) is possible. Unlike the procedure for the adoption of Eastern European countries in the EU, the New Neighborhood program has seriously changed the rules, raising uncertainty in the transition period, sufficient for membership in the EU. The Eastern Partnership program that follows it, although it offered the association to the countries of the South Caucasus, is still far from the idea of ​​full participation of the countries of the South Caucasus in the EU. This, at least, is the position of Germany and France, playing the leading role in the EU.

The relations of Turkey with the countries of the region represent an important aspect of the international "measurement" of the situation in the South Caucasus. Turkey, being a major regional power, seeks to strengthen its influence in the new states of the region. In addition, as a member of NATO and the main regional ally of the United States, Turkey objectively participates in the competition between the Russian Federation and the West for influence on the South Caucasus. However, recent events, when the EU unreasonably delayed the issue of admission of Turkey, forced Ankara to reconsider its guidelines and put forward a whole new set of initiatives aimed at overcoming the consequences of the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and the formation of a new regional political and economic education in which could include Russia and the country of the South Caucasus (the "Caucasian Platform"). The position of Turkey, which does not object to the entry of the Azerbaijan into the EurAsEC, is characteristic.

In parallel with this process, Turkey in the shortest time achieved rapprochement with the Armenia. This initiative, even though it suffered a temporary fiasco in April 2010, is a clear example of the fact that if there is a will, the issue of any political complexity can be solved in the foreseeable period of time. According to Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, "the EU and the USA made a big mistake when they pulled this process out of the context of the conflict settlement in 2009 during the period of active rapprochement, which was observed in the Armenian-Turkish relations. The settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the establishment of the Armenian-Turkish relations are interrelated, and these processes cannot be considered separately from each other "(1).

The idea of ​​the Eurasian Union promoted by Russia is not new: in 2010, Foreign Minister of Turkey, Ahmed Davutoglu, during a meeting with the ambassadors of Turkey, voiced the idea of ​​creating in Eurasia a structure similar to the EU.

According to the agency "Regnum", the Turkish Foreign Minister said that Eurasia could become the driving force of the world economy, acquiring the potential for independent resolution of existing conflicts in it. "No country has a chance of developing in an isolated situation, if peace and prosperity do not prevail in Eurasia, then it will be impossible to secure them on the planet as a whole" (2).

Such grandiose plans can hardly be accepted by the United States. In explanation of the current situation around the "Eurasian intrigue" the agency "Regnum" brought the conclusion of the Turkish political scientist Kahraman Bozel: "Ankara does not want the US to activate in the Black Sea region and therefore willingly goes to an alliance with Moscow, but it is unlikely that the US will realize this union, because while they lose control of this vast territory. Therefore, the region is again entering an active phase of the geopolitical struggle. The West-East confrontation in the near future is likely to have a tendency to worsen in the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus - taking into account the activation of the US in the Black Sea basin, the big oil game around the Caspian Sea, the communication war for control over the post-Soviet space and changes in the geo-strategy in the Middle East and in the Caucasus (3).

As if in confirmation of these analytical conclusions, intrigue is growing around the hydrocarbon reserves of the region and the routes of their transportation. Turkmenistan, overcoming its voluntary isolation, announced that the development of relations with the EU countries is a priority of the country's foreign policy.

Returning to the problems of the region, we note that the outlines of some integration models are quite visible - Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are united by the implementation of a wide variety of projects: from oil pipelines and to the construction of the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway line, the countries have begun to create a single electrical system. A similar bilateral project was envisaged by Iran and the Republic of Armenia. Turkey and Iran began negotiations on the establishment of a free economic zone on the border between the two countries. After the implementation of the project, neighboring countries, in the first place, Azerbaijan and Georgia, may join it.

Georgia and Azerbaijan are strategic allies, and this was proved by a five-day war with the Russian Federation, when despite the Kremlin's pressure, Baku rendered massive assistance to Tbilisi. In terms of economic cooperation, it is enough to note that the SOCAR's investments in Georgia in 2009 reached $470 million. Even against such a favorable relationship, Saakashvili's proposal to create the Confederation of Georgia and Azerbaijan sounded like a sensation, but however, ignored by Baku. Meanwhile, the implementation of this proposal could lay the foundation for the initial regional integration.

Azerbaijan has a chance to repeat the path of Uzbekistan, who moved from GUAM to the SCO. This all is the more attractive for the authorities, subjected to a powerful pressure of forces that prevent the infiltration of the United States into the South Caucasus region. And if Turkey, deprived of the last hopes of becoming a member of the EU, pay closer attention to the SCO or the concept of EurAsess by V.Putin, the authorities of Azerbaijan will receive an additional "ethnic" argument for reorienting their foreign policy. Such a perspective would also open the way for the implementation of new options for the solution of the Karabakh conflict, which again would be transformed from "external" to "internal". The conflict is "frozen" mainly because the Russian Federation and the United States are trying to keep in the sphere of influence not only Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the entire region as a whole.

Incomplete foreign policy led to a paradoxical result: it is difficult to name the country with which the AP today has a stable friendly relationship. Even with Turkey and Georgia in recent years, there have been some problems. Traditionally, uneasy relationships exist with the Russian Federation, Iran, Turkmenistan, and, of course, Armenia. The security of Azerbaijan is under serious threat, as there is a deficit of independent foreign policy.

Military aspect

Military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Georgia began in 2007, and successfully developed in the formats: bilateral relations, the NATO program "Cooperation for peace", the trilateral cooperation of the Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Russia.

Three countries of the South Caucasus, having completed programs of cooperation with NATO, have completely differently defined their future. The RA, a CSTO member, from the very beginning declared that it would remain within the framework of the former defense alliance, Gr. no less clearly made it clear that its goal is integration with NATO, especially since Tbilisi, like Baku, has never been a member of the collective security system formed under the auspices of the Russian Federation. But, if for Georgia this step seems to be non-alternative, then the situation with Azerbaijan looks somewhat more complicated. In these conditions, Baku did not think of anything better than a "Solomonic decision" to ask NATO to repeat the already completed program of cooperation, thereby pushing its difficult choice into the future. The fact that NATO has met this very original wish of Baku shows that this structure not only understands the "difficulties" of the Azerbaijan well, but also supports the temporarily "neutral" status of this country, which is an important supplier and transit of energy resources for the West, - the main requirement of which is to maintain stability by any means.

In May 2015, in Ankara, the ministers of defense of the three countries discussed the issue of the security of railway lines and infrastructures for the supply of energy resources. In December 2015 in Istanbul, another such meeting was held, at which issues of defense security and modernization of the armed forces were discussed. February, 2017 in Brussels, the defense ministers of Georgia and Turkey discussed the issue of signing an agreement on trilateral military cooperation.

The economic aspect

The Azerbaijan republic and the EU signed a special Charter defining Baku's role in ensuring the energy security of Europe. Today, this role is being revised in the context of the alternative "Southern Corridor", which is considering various options for transporting gas from Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan to the EU.

(Baku / 15.03.18 / Turan): At a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran and Georgia on March 15 in Baku, the creation of a South-West transport corridor was discussed, following which a joint declaration was signed aimed at expanding cooperation in infrastructure, transport and agriculture. It was noted that a format of cooperation is being created to connect the major regions of the world (a new transport corridor will connect the Indian and Atlantic oceans.)

In recent years, there has been a significant improvement in the relationship between Tehran and Baku due to the deterioration of the Armenian-Iranian relations. 10 years ago, Tehran promised to build a railway to Armenia, but never laid it, but it reached an agreement with Baku on the construction of the Kazvin-Resht-Astara railway within the framework of the North-South transport corridor: The primary reason: Iran's hope for Azerbaijan in terms of access to the European market of energy carriers, inclusion in the world transport and communication system, an outset in a large-scale North-South project (Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.)

(Tehran/14.03.18/Turan): Iran and Azerbaijan are determined to expand bilateral relations in all directions, and Azerbaijan can become a bridge connecting Iran with Europe, Iranian President H.Ruhani said at a meeting with the Minister of Economic Development Shah Mustafayev in Tehran.

It was previously reported, that Azerbaijan plans to provide Iran with a $ 500 million loan for the construction of the Astara-Rasht railway, which is also part of the North-South transport corridor. The total length of the South-West corridor is 5311 kilometers: Slavkov-Ilyichevsk-1364; Ilyichevsk-Batumi-1050; Batumi-Baku-Astara - 982; Astara-Bandar Abbas - 1915 km. This corridor will allow the dispatch of goods from India and to Europe and back through Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine. It is believed that cargo transportation along the South-West transport corridor will be carried out within seven days, instead of today's 35-37 days on alternative routes. Azerbaijan successfully develops the role of a transit point on the West-East, North-South and East-West lines (from China via Azerbaijan to Europe.)

On February 8, the first freight train for the Astara (AR) - Astara (IRI) railroad, which arrived after the official opening, will become part of the Kazvin (IRI) - Astara (AR) - one of the stages of the North-South transport corridor. . With the completion of construction, the cargo will pass through the territory of India and further through the Persian Gulf, Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Russian Federation in the direction of the Scandinavian states and Northern Europe for 14 days.

In February, a thousandth freight train, China-Europe, departed from China. On its way, the train proceeded through the territory of Kazakhstan to the port of Kuryk, from where it crossed the Caspian Sea to the port of Alat (Azerbaijan), and from there went to the port of Poti (Georgia) - the final destination - the city of Naples (Italy).

1. http://regnum.ru/news/fd-abroad/azeri/1668968.html.

2. www.regnum.ru/news/1250507.html 11:47 05.02.2010

3. www.regnum.ru/news/1250507.html 11:47 05.02.2010