Will Azerbaijan and Armenia be able to withdraw their troops from the border?

In a nuanced diplomatic dance, the prospect of mutual troop withdrawal from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has re-emerged, sparking cautious optimism in Armenia. Ararat Mirzoyan, the Armenian Foreign Minister, addressed the issue during a briefing in Yerevan on December 13, following discussions with the Estonian Foreign Minister. He underscored the potential positive impact of such withdrawals in averting further escalations, emphasizing that the idea is actively under consideration.

However, the response from Azerbaijan has been measured. Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, speaking alongside Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on December 14, expressed concerns about isolating elements from the negotiation process. Bayramov highlighted the complexity of the border delineation issue, asserting that the absence of a comprehensive agreement poses challenges. He questioned the efficacy of troop withdrawals without a concrete resolution, raising doubts about the prevention of a resurgence of tensions.

Crucially, Bayramov emphasized Azerbaijan's sovereign right to safeguard its borders, rejecting the notion of third-party involvement in border protection. Deputy Elman Mammadov  explained to Turan  that while troop withdrawal might be on the table, it doesn't necessarily extend to border guards, who play a pivotal role in maintaining security along the border.

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu in an interview with Radio Azadlig, identified a paradox in the negotiations, suggesting that while troop withdrawal requires confidence, the lack of mutual trust complicates the process. Orujlu advocated for the active participation of observers from both sides to break this deadlock. However, he expressed skepticism, pointing out that certain influential powers, particularly Russia, might not be aligned with the immediate establishment of peace in the region.

The backdrop to these delicate negotiations is the long-standing Karabakh conflict, dating back to 1988, resulting in territorial occupations and periodic clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The 44-day war in 2020 saw Baku regain control of seven districts and part of Karabakh. A trilateral agreement between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia led to the deployment of Russian servicemen to key areas, attempting to stabilize the region.

Recent events, including Baku's announcement of "local anti-terrorist measures" in Karabakh and subsequent population migrations, have added complexity to the delicate negotiations. The fifth meeting of the commissions on delimitation and Border Security on November 30 aimed to address these challenges, establishing the groundwork for future discussions and joint working meetings. However, the road to a comprehensive resolution remains uncertain, with underlying geopolitical interests further complicating the path to lasting peace in the region.