THE CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: DEEP-SEATED PESSIMISM ON AZERBAIJAN�S ELECTIONS

In Azerbaijan, the oil-rich country in the Southern Caucasus, the credibility to the electoral process has long been seriously damaged by traditional prevalent abuses and massive frauds. The historical obstacles - such as voter intimidation, harassment of opposition, biased media, low turnout, vote buying, extensive use of administrative resources by the ruling party for campaigning purposes, police interference - still persist, as the parliamentary elections due 7th November draw nearer.
Political apathy holds sway in the society. Many in Azerbaijan do not see any point to vote because they believe that the authorities will decide the result. They claim that President Aliyev and his cronies will, as always, rig votes across the country in order to load the new parliament with loyalists. The society, lurching into pessimism about country"s future and increasingly dissatisfied with the reality of ineffective governance, is mostly unengaged with electoral processes and appears to accept the authorities with resignation. The authorities effectively managed to discourage meaningful citizen participation in political and decision-making processes, with putting a lid on genuine public debate on issues of wider public interest - be it elections, gross human rights abuses or even transparency of oil and gas revenue expenditures.
All this lies at the root of a continuous crisis of confidence in the electoral process and citizens" weak belief in their ability to effect change in the country. Restoring faith in the electoral system is a difficult struggle in which the ruling regime has intentionally been slow to engage. Public trust in the electoral process remains noticeably low, and reports of extensive irregularities in all elections in the culture of impunity and non-accountability contribute to the crisis of legitimacy faced by the declared winner.
The government, under the dynastic reign of the Aliyev family since 1993, escapes broader public accountability because since gaining independence in 1991, it never has hold free and fair elections. The authorities still perceive elections as a threat, not an opportunity. All past elections have been marred by widespread manipulation by government officials, significant police abuse and other serious malpractices of which the international observers denounced for massive fraud and flagrant violations of democratic practice.
Despite of the troubled transition from Soviet yoke, Azerbaijan still continues to retain the authoritarian legacy, with Aliyev family dominating both politics and the economy, making any transition impossible. Current president Aliyev succeeded his ailing father, country"s long-standing post-soviet ruler Heydar Aliyev in 2003, a process sealed by government critics as a "dynastic succession", which was the first such power transfer in whole post-soviet zone. Following his father"s footsteps, junior Aliyev government deepened his authoritarian grip on the country and governed with increasing impunity for the repression and political violence and hold elections falling far short of international norms.
The widespread public apathy towards elections has portrayed itself in dramatic decline in turnouts in each elapsing elections. The polls steadily become extremely unenthused, as the environment lacks of competition, open public debate and genuine campaign, while the pre-election fields get almost totally tilted towards government"s candidates and the media remains under full government control. If 47% of the population decided to turn out vote in parliamentary elections of 2005, the turnout in municipal elections of 2009 was well below 30%. The grim picture reveals a serious disenchantment with the electoral system in a country which continues to witness one fraudulent election after the other.
The low voter turnout could be the only challenge of the ruling regime in coming November 7 elections, but there are always substantial reports on invented and inflated turnouts and people being forced to vote. Authorities routinely force students, hospital employees, teachers and other vulnerable state employees to vote for government"s candidates.
FROM BAD TO WORSE
Azerbaijan, showing dramatic downtrend trajectory in international freedom indexes, primarily since 2003, causes a great concern. Political space for alternative voices has continued to further shrink with the considerable restriction of freedom of expression and assembly in past seven years, with the government virtually controlling all influential media outlets and arbitrarily arresting opposition journalists on obvious politically-motivated charges and putting de-facto ban on public assemblies. Journalists who express critical opinions often become targets of persecution by the authorities, who extensively use defamation, drug possession, hooliganism and other politically-motivated charges to muzzle dissent voices in the society.
The inflow of easy money coming from oil revenues has a marked correlation with a consistent trend towards the steady deterioration and greater restriction of human rights, especially during the presidency of Ilham Aliyev since 2003. Even though Aliyev administration has worked hard to raise its international image as a reliable energy exporter and stable partner, its democratic credentials have much more deteriorated and human rights are increasingly under threat. Prospering from the sky-rocketing lavish oil incomes, his government took Azerbaijan increasingly away from democracy anticipations with tightening his grip on the society. The controversial constitutional amendments of March 2009 opened the possibility of a life-long presidency for Aliyev. Citing the gradual degradation, an Azeri analyst says the country is on the way "to transform itself to a Central Asia style dictatorship, namely Turkmenistan, which seems a role model for country"s leadership".
The traditional opposition boycotted the 2008 poll that secured second term for President Aliyev and the 2009 referendum on controversial constitutional changes in order to protest of the restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly and the pro-government dominance in the election commissions. The extreme polarizing politics with the absence of dialogue between the incumbent and the opposition add to the challenge.
The stream of gigantic oil boom was enough to boost the incumbent"s self-confidence to shun international criticism and to ensure domestic political control by any means and any form. Official Baku"s lack of concern over the international community"s democratization messages is crystal-clear during past several years. The political opposition and outspoken media continue to face tremendous challenges under the presidency of Ilham Aliyev, who has become more hostile and intolerant than his late father towards the regime-critics. Now in Azerbaijan, many dissidents and radical opposition activists look back on his father"s reign "as a golden age of freedom". For instance, if the opposition parties were able to hold rallies and manifestations in central parts of the capital Baku during father Aliyev"s reign (1993-2003), but it has now been a distant dream.
Azerbaijan"s ruling elite seems driven by one overwhelming motive: self-enrichment. Access to state funds, including through plundering the budgetary allocations, the competition to misappropriate substantial funds skimming from the lucrative oil business, controlling grandiose multi-million dollar construction projects of questionable necessity is a key source of enrichment. It is no coincidence that the country"s top wealthiest people are all in the higher ranks of the government.
Government critics accuse the ruling political elite of misusing oil revenues for their own political and economic interests. Manipulating the Oil Fund and state budget to support grandiose and high-priced construction projects is seen a tool for the financial gain of the country"s elite, which does not hold serving the people as its highest priority. The abundant energy resources have failed to translate the oil-derived wealth into better lives of citizens and build sustainable economic system. Some constitutional and legal reforms have been adopted, but they have been mostly decorative, self-serving, tentative or the exception.
The Aliyev regime"s increasingly repressive policies have much deepened popular dissatisfaction and contributed to social unrest. His administration has indeed maintained a certain degree of stability in the country, but mostly by a total crackdown on the political opposition, stifling the independent and outspoken media, and curbing fundamental freedoms. Though an impression of stability exists in the country, the potential for a political crisis is growing year by year as the country slides towards a closed and authoritarian rule.
A PUPPET BODY: CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION
The overall responsibility for the conduct of elections in the country rests with the Central Election Commission (CEC), which the authorities have effectively stacked with its supporters to favor the incumbent.
Every other year, when elections recur, the chairman of CEC, Mazahir Panahov, a former mathematics teacher, routinely makes lip service insisting that the elections will be free and fair, but his occupancy of the same position in past decade that witnessed fraud elections have long ago cast doubt on his independence and honesty. Being the "right person for the right place" for the government, President Aliyev would unlikely want to devolve this key position to an untested figure. There is a widespread belief among opposition and civil society groups that President Aliyev is using the CEC to organize unfair elections that will allow his government to stay in power. Because the CEC is not independent, it cannot resist the constant interference in the electoral process of officials, above all from the Presidential Administration.
The unresolved discord between the government and the opposition parties over the CEC"s composition and the obvious bias in favor of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) adds to the credibility challenge. The biased composition of the CEC has effectively shut out the political opposition from the decision-making process affecting the election, such as the registration of candidates.
With loose political consensus the CEC has been hastily formed and as a ballot organizing body it always lacks the full public confidence in its integrity. Country"s major opposition Musavat party refused to send its representative to the CEC as a protest to the existing inapt rules of composition of election commissions.
However, not all the serious frauds and abuses happen in the CEC itself. Before the protocols from lower election commissions arrive in the CEC, local authorities - be it law-enforcement bodies, municipality officials, executive committee employees - are always cautiously tamed to ensure the required result. Governors of districts are always under huge pressure to ensure this, as the failure means loss of livelihood or maybe much worse. For instance, shortly after the parliamentary elections of 2005, wherever the opposition"s strong candidates became the winner, either the results were annulled or the governors of those districts were sacked or in worst case, both of these incidents happened. That is to say, the big bosses in Presidential Administration in Baku simply punished the governors of Zakatala, Sabirabad, Surakhani Districts, as they failed to successfully and better rig the votes to thwart the opposition candidates" victories.
And the vehement support of the executive authorities and other government officials for the victory of ruling party is that they believe their own job security depends on its continued rule. Though an oil-rich country, the unemployment rate is considerably higher in Azerbaijan. Public sector employees tend to do whatever their leaders order, just for the sake of keeping their jobs to earn monthly salary. For instance, the precinct election commissions (PECs) often consists of teachers, since the polling stations are usually situated in schools. The teachers are a particularly vulnerable group, with low salaries and employed (so easily dismissible) by the local state administration.
ELECTION RUN-UP: NOT FREE AND FAIR
Most of the election violations observed in previous elections are recurring with the same intensity, even with more restricted registration and campaign environment, in the run-up to legislative elections.
Fearing for losing the lavish oil incomes, the authorities will be disinclined to allow a clean vote for the coming elections to the country"s 125 seat Parliament, which functions mainly as rubber-stamp exercise and toothless body. Though the Election Code has been amended several times with additional so-called safeguards against the fraud, the ruling elite with no real political will is fundamentally unwilling to embrace genuine democracy or representative elections in the country. The same people who presided over the falsified elections are likely to be present this time also. The newly amended election legislation and other arrangements at some extent could make it harder to engage in some prior gross malpractices, but their details are less important than how it is implemented. For instance, installing hundreds of webcams in constituencies to monitor the poll, critics say, in fact are used to intimidate people, mainly in rural context, as they think they are being watched there by webcam. Without a political will for holding transparent elections, there is no use for applying such modern technology.
Credible reports that the ordinary voters and candidates have been intimidated during the pre-election period and the government has successfully prevented the opposition from getting its message across to much of the nation. The biased media and black PR against the opposition continues to heavily distort the climate. There is considerably less opportunity for any party or group to express dissent.
The candidate registration has been a tough process, due to an overly restrictive interpretation of the Election Code"s provisions. CEC arbitrarily disqualified several opposition and truly independent candidates on controversial grounds, which were mainly politically-motivated and not persuasive.
The OSCE/ODIHR observers" mission stated that, "the environment in which candidates were collecting supporting signatures was negatively affected by intimidation of voters and candidates", as the authorities extensively used threats directly or to their families and relatives. Dealing with unwanted candidates, the Constituency Election Commissions (ConECs) attempted to deregister those candidates to avoid the need for significant malpractices on Election Day. The OSCE/ODIHR mission also found credible reports regarding "intimidation of and pressure on voters to sign or withdrew their signatures from signature sheets". Current violations of the electoral rights stem from the government"s long-term efforts stifle dissent and restrict pluralism and its poor record on accountability for abuse.
Though the international community has expressed its commitment to free and fair elections with the deployment of international observers and spending enormous money for technically improving the elections, the Azerbaijan government seems determined to the traditional path of rigging the elections and effectively obstructing the political opposition in order to reconfirm the ruling party"s dominance, at any cost. The international community should judge the election process as a whole, not only based on E-day observations and it should unequivocally condemn serious breaches of democracy standards followed by the domestic and international advocacy to redress the violations.
The parliament stacked with MPs, who have little or no public support and have been elected illegally, cannot hold the executive accountable and will likely do rubber-stamp changes to the Constitution.
But, this should not be this way. If the regime wanted the country to be accepted as economic and political leader of the region, it needs to do better. Developing the country as a more modern, open, democratic and less corrupt state could help facilitate resolution of the long festering conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. A good voter turnout is vital to have the popular legitimacy the government needs to solve the protracted conflict. Promoting rule of law, embracing democratic reform and flourishing economy with equal distribution of oil revenues should be seen the only way to attract the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh part of country back to its fold.
In the name of security and safe transportation of oil-gas resources, the international partners of Azerbaijan have all too often looked away when the government engaged in human rights abuses, ranging from violently suppressing the dissent to holding fraudulent elections. However, the Western Powers and transnational oil companies must recognize that the key to Azerbaijan"s long-term stability will be the development of the rule of law and respect for human rights with ensuring free and fair elections. Otherwise, instability may emerge as the result of the accumulated political frustration and public discontent with government policies and international ignorance to them.
To ease the political disappointment in the country, the nearing elections could be a chance for the ruling elite to take a step toward political liberalization and sustainable development. If the measures are not taken, the country is likely to swerve towards increased instability and insecurity.
The Aliyev government should be urged to open-up political space and be made to realize that a transparent political system and free elections could prove the best guarantee for the long-term stability in the country. The authorities should treat the political opposition as a partner not an enemy. That could contribute to galvanize politically apathetic public, but it should not be seen as a threat to the stability and assets of the ruling elite. With the institutionalized corruption more rule than exception, the ruling political system is hardly to change quickly, unless that willingness to introduce change starts from the top.
The direct result of the government-sponsored campaign to muzzle the dissent and to mar the electoral process is that the November 7 elections will be of questionable legitimacy, regardless of fairness and transparency of the Election Day procedures.

Vugar GOJAYEV is a country manager for the Azerbaijan Human Rights House. He is also a freelance analyst writing on the developments in the South Caucasus region. This article has been written for www.humanrightshouse.org