Elections: Preparation and versions ...

In recent days, the topic of elections has again become relevant in the country. In accordance with the calendar of constitutional elections, municipal elections should be held in December this year, and regular parliamentary elections next year. Along with the revival of the elections, tension is also growing in society. The attitude towards oneself and the general hopes raised by them are ambiguous. There are fundamental differences in the approach of opposition organizations to the elections. Yes, and in the camp of authorities there is a violation of the system of traditional relationships.

The society asks many questions. Can the authorities, under the current political situation, hold elections to the Milli Majlis at an earlier date, as happened with the extraordinary presidential election of 2018? Is it necessary before time to replace deputies who are completely submissive to the will of the authorities and aiding them? Can the whole opposition jointly fight for the improvement of the electoral legislation? Do the authorities intend to compromise?

Is there a need for an early change of deputies and for holding early elections in the Mili Majlis?

Despite the fact that the procedure for holding early parliamentary elections is not directly expressed in the legislation, this can be done indirectly. The country's legislation does not create legal obstacles to unscheduled parliamentary elections. At the same time, political will and attitude of the authorities are considered decisive factors in all matters. When the authorities consider that this is in their interests, then they can set a date for special parliamentary elections.

The contribution of the current parliament to the development of socio-political relations in the country is unsatisfactory. As in all anti-democratic countries, parliament has problems in terms of efficiency, functionality and representation of citizens. Despite the fact that the current composition of the Milli Majlis in a moral aspect has turned into an extra burden for the authorities, the deputies have not yet created serious social and political problems for them. As you can see, a premature change of unconditionally obeying the will of the authorities, supporting all their decisions, deputies loyal to them is not particularly necessary.

With very few exceptions, most deputies are perceived as people who do not feel any legal and moral responsibility to society. The vast majority, abusing their mandate, have turned into privileged advocates of the interests of oligarch officials, regional clans and foreign influential groups. Not only their illegal acts, but also even their speeches increase discontent in the country. Having no prestige in society, the deputies are not yet a threat to the authorities.

Can the opposition fight together to improve election laws?

In recent days, it has become noticeable that mutual accusations and disputes among the opposition have waned, but discussions related to preparations for the next election have become more frequent. So, on the initiative of the Musavat Party on September 6, a tangible part of the country's opposition gathered at a round table on the topic "Elections: realities and prospects".

Issues such as intensifying joint efforts to improve the electoral law, improve the political election situation and prepare for the next parliamentary elections were debated at the event. The draft document submitted by the Musavat Party was generally considered by the PFPA and REAL parties to be satisfactory. Such discussions by the opposition on the eve of the elections, and attempts to consolidate political forces indicate the possibility of a joint struggle.

If we look at the past, we can see how the opposition created numerous coalitions in order to achieve the creation of democratic legal and political pre-election conditions and victory in the elections. Experience shows that, although it is tempting to carry out joint activities to achieve the goal, it is not enough to achieve decisive successful results. Without setting in motion wider sections of society, one cannot speak of any positive result. However, to achieve a socio-political upsurge in society using traditional electoral tactics is unrealistic.

Could conflicting statements by Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) functionaries be related to the next election?

Recently, tension, anxiety and contradictions have been growing in the camp of authorities. As if inside, preparations are underway for some sort of closed political process, the details of which are unknown to us. Mobilization of both administrative and state resources is observed. It is striking the presence of this factor also in the statements, speeches and actions of the leadership of the YAP.

Many questions and assumptions appear because of discussions on social networks about the health of the president; the change of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the head of the state security service; the appointment of the ex-Minister of the Interior as secretary of the Security Council to replace the head of the Presidential Administration who has held this post since April 10, 1997, as well as about popularization of the activities of the First Vice President.

YAP deputy executive secretary Siyavush Novruzov accuses former ministers of embezzling billions of dollars and threatens with inevitable punishment. Indirectly, he makes it clear that there is widespread corruption in the country and hints that these people do not support the authorities. MPs from the YAP Eldar Ibrahimov, Hadi Rajabli and Presidential Aide Ali Hasanov voiced conflicting views in this regard. YAP Executive Secretary Ali Ahmedov, along with a statement refuting their point of view, threatens the opposition in rather harsh terms. The pro-governmental socio-political organizations, being mobilized, hold a round table in support of the authorities. It is possible that all this has hidden serious reasons.

The ruling party, with more than 700 thousand members, has virtually no serious prestige in the political life of the country. It appears as a continuation of the bureaucratic apparatus of power and the weakest link in administrative management. In essence, the tasks of this political party are carried out by the police. It is possible that the YAP, which in public opinion is losing its importance as a political party and in internal processes, will be "offside".

Large-scale corruption in the country is carried out by members of the YAP. Apparently, in this area there are circumstances such that competent people, who by now avoid talking this reality, are now forced to talk about it openly. It is likely that all this is connected with the plans of certain forces to take part in the reorganization of power, to create the appearance of the fight against corruption in the country entering a new phase, and through punishment of some people to gain trust in society.

The wide distribution of social networks and their impact on public opinion has given rise to new realities. Considering them, the YAP is trying to reanimate its political position.

In order to gain public confidence, the YAP voices the problems that the leaders themselves hid and refuted by the mouth of the leaders themselves. By joining social networks and making harsh statements against the opposition, they and others like them also seek to remind the country's top leadership of their political existence.

Can the authorities make compromises in connection with the elections?

The traditional approach of the Azerbaijani leadership to the elections has not changed. The authorities of the country believe that the elections held so far in the republic were free, competitive and fully expressed the will of the people. They are not at all interested in a different situation at the upcoming elections, and they do not want the widespread discontent in society with the help of the opposition to move to parliament. The country's leadership intends to limit itself to making cosmetic changes to the current composition of the Milli Majlis, and adjusting it by specialists from various fields.

Meanwhile, the opposition claims that all previous elections held by the authorities were rigged, unfree and unfair. She considers participation in the elections unacceptable without a change in election commissions, without a democratic electoral climate and the creation of the necessary conditions for international observation missions.

It is unlikely that under the current conditions, relations between the authorities and the opposition may change in a direction that is beneficial to society. Without a tangible, large-scale political activity of society, the authorities will not be inclined to make any compromise related to the elections.

An analysis of everything that happens shows that the probability of force majeure in the country is very high. Very soon, we can witness the authorities put forward new political initiatives. Azerbaijan"s entry into a new political stage depends on the socio-political consequences to which the current circumstances can bring.