Troubles outside and inside

Firstly, despite the mild messages, Turkey itself is unable to enter into direct talks with the radical Islamist regime in Afghanistan; that is, the conditions announced by the Taliban while far away from Kabul and demanding that "Turkey give up some things" remain in force. Secondly, it is clear from Ankara's request that Pakistan, not Turkey, will have an influence on the Taliban from the very beginning. Thirdly, no matter how mild the Turkish political Islam sends to the Taliban, it is not difficult to see that it will not be useful in the future.

Yes, unlike the Mujahideen groups fighting against the USSR in Afghanistan, the Taliban, which emerged in the early 1990s with the financial support of the Gulf states and the moral support (education) of Pakistan (coordinated by all Western countries, including the United States), will not easily open the door to countries like Turkey, despite political Islamists in power.

Announcing in July that it was "ready to take over the security of Kabul airport," Ankara no doubt saw the complexity of the process and knocked on Islamabad's door; however, it is impossible to talk about any progress at this stage. Seeing this, it chose to withdraw its troops from Kabul as its first target, and it managed to do so without loss. Kalın, press secretary of the president, said they "wanted to manage Kabul airport," indicating that the targets would not be easily abandoned. However, the events around Kabul airport, which is not under the control of the Taliban, will inevitably force Ankara to re-evaluate everything.

If the Taliban increases its radicalism, Turkey's job can be expected to become more difficult. Without secular forces representing at least half of society, it is impossible to prevent the radicalization of Islamist regimes, whether political or non-political. For example, Ayatollah Khomeini, who said in February 1979 that they would protect the rights of women more than anyone else, said in March 1979, "For me, there is no difference between a woman who does not cover her head and a prostitute in general," and these words were enough to change the nature of the regime in a night.

In addition to developing relations with the Taliban, Turkey is equally concerned about refugees from Afghanistan. Because after the wave of migration of 4 million from neighboring Syria, about 600,000 refugees expected to come from Afghanistan will have a serious impact not only on the economy and sociology of the country but also on its direct demographic structure...

In this environment, the Turkish ruling party is forced to consider preparations for the next parliamentary and presidential elections (the ruling Nationalist Movement Party's views on Afghanistan, which are in conflict with the major partner, are noteworthy).

As happened many times during the AKP rule, although the unofficial currency, which has recently entered the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves, and money coming in from several countries through swap lines cleared the bronchial tract of the economic system a little, it did not matter much whether it was early or late. It is expected that the economic policy to be implemented when entering the atmosphere of the next elections will be problematic.

The re-arrest of the acquitted generals is part of that rhetoric, and it is clear that the AKP will not let go of that vein until the end. Since it became impossible to separate the IYI Party, which represents the moderate nationalist wing, from the opposition alliance and since a significant number of Kurdish voters are no longer playing on the basis of "Muslim brotherhood" but on the basis of ethnicity, it will be necessary to continue the search for new easy pray in the run-up to the elections.

In other words, the government, which will start looking for large amounts of money at the end of September at the latest, will not be able to stop thinking about the next election. Aware of this, Erdoğan, the most experienced figure in Turkish politics, does not shy away from strengthening Islamist rhetoric while maneuvering in the political arena.

Just as there are countless alternatives in an unslain political system, losing in the election and withdrawing are also among those alternatives. You can be sure that Mr. Erdoğan has been thinking about this for a while...

Mayis Alizade