Standard & Poor"s Confirms Stability of Investment Rating of Azerbaijan at Level of BBB-

Azerbaijan received (confirmed) the investment grade BBB-/ Stable / A-3 from the international rating agency Standard & Poor's. It is at the level of Peru, Colombia and some other oil producing countries.

Local budget surplus is expected to reach 10% (about the same as last year). By reducing the population and the public sector in comparison with Russia and Kazakhstan, the government's net assets may reach 59% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Last year they were at 53%.

According to the agency, this year it is no longer necessary to wait for the fall in oil prices - on the contrary, it will increase to $ 100 and even higher. So improvement in the balance of payments is expected. Reliable "haven" of budget expenditures is the State Oil Fund, which invests in the local budget year more than $ 10 billion and keeps its assets abroad.

According to the agency, the government will not accept a decrease in the level of oil production, not to get economic growth at 0.1%, as it was in the last year. Against the background of the completion of technical measures in the field "Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli" it is expected to increase the level of GDP by 3%. The agency considers it impossible to rapid growth of the local economy and encourages diversification.

The level of diversification of the local economy is very low - last year the share of hydrocarbon and its products was 92% of the total exports of the country (40% of GDP). Leading analysts compare this with the performance in Russia (about 64% of the exports) and Kazakhstan (about 60% of the exports). Hydrocarbons in Kazakhstan amounted to 25% of GDP. Analysts compare the CIS countries, because oil-producing states of other regions have a much more extensive economy.

If in the years 2005-10, GDP growth per capita (low part of the middle class and the huge difference between the wealth of the rich and the poor) was 17% in the years 2012-14 will be 3.2%.

By the end of the year, GDP per capita in Azerbaijan should be approximately $ 7,063, which is still one and a half times lower than in the same Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.

As the local economy depends on exports, it is sensitive to external stress, says Standard & Poor's. The situation, in particular, is soothed by the level of direct foreign investment (mainly in the oil and gas sector). In addition, the country's need for foreign borrowing is lower than in these countries from the comparison group, said the research bulletin. Instead, the government is engaged in investment expansion. - 17D-