Turkey and US reach broad agreement on military operations

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Turan: President Trump previously announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria; many countries, led by Russia, reacted calmly to this statement. What can you say about the current statement about the withdrawal of troops from Syria and about the plans of the Turkish military operation?

Pekin: The US already knows that Turkey will conduct military operations on the other side of the border. An agreement was reached between the two countries. The United States will not participate in this operation, not wanting to ruin the system created there by America. The Turkish army will enter Syrian territory to a depth of 30 km, and the PYD / YPG forces will move further down. Then Turkey will place 2 million refugees in this region. I intend to create an "Arab belt" there. It can be seen that Turkey plans to enter the region through three points. Then military bases will be created there and thus the region will be taken under control.

Turkey"s plans for the regions where PYD / YPG will come from will be specified after the creation of the "Arab belt". Turkey is forced to secure its borders, but the United States has not yet dispersed the Kurdish forces supported there, they will remain as they were, and move slightly to the south. The US openly supports and defends the Kurds. Concerning the reasons for the US withdrawal from Syria, it is clear that at a later stage, the United States will be more engaged in Iran. There are problems inside the country, the presidential election is approaching, there are proposals to remove Donald Trump from power, etc. On the other hand, the interests of the United States are that Turkey should not be even more dependent on Russia and America is obliged to place a stronger alliance between Ankara and Moscow. It is also a factor in the US withdrawal from Syria.

Turan: Will the withdrawal of the US from the region cause any problems directly with Turkey?

Pekin: Of course, it is possible. They will again strengthen ISIS, the terrorist organization, and send it to us. They can create problems domestically through ISIS. Idlib's problem is not resolved. From there, new problems can also be created for Turkey. The most dangerous thing for Turkey may be the preparation of partisans at bases on the other side of the border that will distract Turkey to counter their attacks. From this perspective, the United States can play its games behind the scenes. The United States says that supposedly, Syria has been cleared of ISIS, but the ISIL members can always be used both in Turkey and in Syria against Turkey. In this process, I believe in broader negotiations and an agreement between Turkey and the United States, as the main objective of the United States remains to maintain the PYD/YPG combat readiness in the region. In this case, the United States can tell Turkey that I support you in the Eastern Mediterranean, ignoring Turkey"s operations in northern Iraq, and you close your eyes to the fact that the PYD/YPG will leave 30 km south of the border and remain safely there. The US may demand that everything be limited to a "safe zone", Turkey may accept this, and there may be such agreement. One of the key conditions for the implementation of Turkey"s plans is the placement of 2 million Turkish refugees in Turkey in Syria. This requires $ 50 billion. The European Union opposes Turkish military operations in that region, therefore it may not allocate money for the needs of refugee accommodation in the region, and Russia and Iran do not openly oppose Turkish military operations in Syria, although they support the territorial integrity of this country. However, Bashar al-Assad is opposed. Therefore, Turkey, in some way conducting public diplomacy, is trying to explain to the world that it is heading to the other side of the border to implement a humanitarian mission there. Western countries can out many arguments against Turkey, they can even use FETO.

Turan: What does Russia, the main actor in Syria say about this?

Pekin: First, Russia wants to embroil Turkey with the United States and NATO. Russia may support the Arab Belt plan. Even having given the northwestern regions of Syria to the Americans, she herself may try to gain a foothold in the northwest of Syria. In fact, Russia and Iran want the Astana process to be implemented. Because if military operations are not coordinated with Russia and Iran, the problem of the East coast of the Ferat River will be included in the Astana process, and the hands of Turkey will be occupied. Therefore, both before and after the operation, Turkey must act in a balanced manner. It is necessary to take measures, because uncoordinated actions can also lead to an increase in the number of terrorist attacks both in Turkey and on the other side of the border. If extensive discussions have been held with the United States, Turkey may receive some guarantees. Observations show that Turkey on the other side may not remain for 8-10 years, but for a longer period. It would be naive to expect the Syrian crisis to be resolved as soon as possible and peace will come quickly there. In the end, we see that the United States and Israel are going to split Syria, so all countries interested in it will try to play their games there. Each country is ready to stop the interests of another country for its own interests.

Turan: Turkey established its administration in the north-west of Syria, and by the decision of President Erdogan, some Turkish universities opened their faculties there. Is Turkey able to establish its rule along the 910-kilometer border? What problems will it face?

Pekin: It is not difficult to predict that the civil war in Syria will last a long time. Considering this, Turkey is trying to create a friendly civil society on the other side. This must be taken naturally. If Turkey can materially, it will be very beneficial for Turkey to create a friendly civil society on the other side of the 911-kilometer border. Turkey sent its officials to the other side of the border; it was thanks to Turkey that stability was created in some areas. Turkey is trying to create a close environment there. There is no other way; every state that thinks about the future would do so.