Political Scientist: Rouhani Good for the West

At the end of last week, Iran held presidential elections, in which the incumbent head of state, Hassan Rouhani, won. He won already in the first round, gaining 57% of the vote, and ahead of his main rival Ibrahim Raisi.

The Iranian President is the second person in the state after the spiritual leader of the country, Ayatollah Khamenei. The President has not changed, so the policy marked recently by strained relations with the US, expressed by bilateral sanctions, has not changed. Given the close neighborhood with Azerbaijan and the fact that Azerbaijanis are up to 40% of the country's population, elections in Iran are of considerable importance for Baku.

"The results of the elections in Iran were predictable," the head of the Atlas Center for Strategic Studies Elkhan Shahinoglu told Turan IA. "True, in recent days the number of radical supporters of Ibrahim Raisi has increased. The fact that one of the candidates for the presidency, Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Galibaf took back his candidacy in favor of Raisi, added to the potential voters of the latter. Despite this, a large part of the population of Iran voted for Hassan Rouhani. There are several reasons for this. First, since the time of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, all the Presidents were elected without exception for a second term. Secondly, there is no conflict between the supreme religious leader of Iran, Hamenei and Rouhani, which is the main thing for the election of the President; on the other hand, the conservative circles secretly support the liberal Rouhani policy of rapprochement with the West and rescue from sanctions. Thirdly, though Iran is in a difficult economic and social situation and the number of unemployed is growing, the youth of Iran seeks to open up to the world.

In Iran, 1/3 of the population is young, and its majority wants to continue the current policy. The West was not interested in the victory of the Iranian conservatives. It was interested in the reelection of Rouhani, because it was during his rule that a nuclear agreement was signed and the world got rid of tension. 6-7 years ago, the main agenda was not Syria, but the nuclear program of Iran. The subject of the discussions was a potential US and Israeli military operation against Iran. This topic was put to an end only after Rouhani was elected President. Because unlike Mahmoud Ahmadinejat Rouhani managed to find a common language with America. Therefore, the Western world did not want a candidate from the conservatives to be elected as President, who could again begin nuclear vicissitudes.

However, despite this, US President Donald Trump will continue to isolate Iran, because in Washington it is assumed that Rouhani is not the ruler in Iran, which is really ruled by the conservatives who have not abandoned nuclear plans and support terrorist organizations that create problems for the US ally, Israel. Therefore, I do not think that in the next 4 years Rouhani will manage to achieve a warmer relationship with America.

The position of Europe is different from the United States. The European Union wants to continue the dialogue with Iran. However, the problem is that large European companies are in no hurry to invest in Iran, because they have manufacturing areas and investments in the US. They are afraid that by cooperating with Iran, they will fall into the black list of Washington. However, if the West wants serious changes in Iran, it must support the policy of opening up this country, and increase investment. Because if during Rouhani's second presidency he does not have enough money for changes in the economy and social life, at a later stage the conservatives will come to power again, which does not promise the West anything good.

Like the West, Azerbaijan also wanted a representative of the reformers to be elected. It was during the rule of Rouhani that bilateral relations between Iran and Azerbaijan developed, trade and economic exchange grew, and joint regional projects began. From this point of view, Rouhani is more acceptable for Azerbaijan than others.

Unfortunately, Tehran does not change its policy about Armenia; it continues its relations with this aggressor state and this causes a just discontent of the population of Azerbaijan. However, the change in this policy does not depend on the Iranian President. This requires the permission of the Ayatollah, who is Azerbaijani by nationality. Although he is the owner of the conservative chair, he should not cast aside the national interests. The political circles and the public of Azerbaijan expect from the supreme spiritual leader of Iran a more resolute position on Nagorno-Karabakh. He could play an important role in determining Tehran's policy towards Armenia. Official Baku can be also active in changing this policy. It is necessary to expand the number of regional projects, strengthen trade and economic relations with Iran, so that this ultimately affects Tehran's foreign policy," Shahinoglu said. -0----