Ankara-Baku-Moscow economic triangle can be projected into the security sphere

Baku/04.08.20/Turan: In Azerbaijani Nakhchivan and other regions of the country, large Azerbaijani-Turkish land military exercises are being held with live fire and the use of military aviation. The exercises are widely discussed in the Armenian and Russian press; some experts say that Baku and Ankara are practicing joint fire strikes against Armenia. They write that the Russian-Armenian military exercises, which began the day before, are being held to demonstrate readiness to resist Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Russian political scientist, researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Karavaev, does not agree with the version that Azerbaijan and Turkey are preparing for a war against Armenia.

Asking the question from Turan agency if there are hidden motives for conducting such exercises, Karavaev replied:

- I do not think there are hidden meanings and everything is on the surface. The Turkish army throughout the post-Soviet years acted as a donor of modernization for the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. This includes gratuitous assistance, large-scale training of cadets and a series of agreements on military-technical cooperation and interaction, the key of which - the "Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Interaction" will turn 10 years old (signed on August 16, 2010). Thus, the levels of coordination increased systematically, taking into account that Ankara immediately identified its position on the Karabakh conflict as a problem in its zone of influence on the side of Azerbaijan.

- Turkey and Azerbaijan have good mutually beneficial business relations with Russia. How should Moscow see such teachings? Does the Kremlin feel deprived, deceived?

- I think no. First, these are regular maneuvers. Secondly, President R.T. Erdogan called President V. Putin on July 27, informing, among other things, about the exercises. Surely, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan also informed the Russian side through its channels. Perhaps, in the future, observers should be exchanged and the Russian military should be invited. After all, we have economic coordination within the Moscow-Baku-Ankara triangle; why not make the format in the security plane. Turkey and Azerbaijan are among the leaders in the purchase of Russian weapons. For Azerbaijan, this is the leading supplier in terms of the volume of contracts. More than a hundred officers from Azerbaijan have been studying at Russian military universities for several years. In short, there is a basis for broader military cooperation.

- Is it possible to imagine at least hypothetically a situation when the Azerbaijani and Turkish armies will fight shoulder to shoulder? Is such a combination possible in our region, when these two armies, together with the Russian one, found themselves "in the same trench?"

- Military exercises are like training in sports, it is not necessary that the sparring partner will be with you in the future competition. This is training, exchange of experience, management methods. On the other hand, it is possible to find tasks for such a triple alliance even in the current reality, which is not entirely peaceful. Mine clearance operations, elimination of the consequences of emergencies and natural situations, actions during a viral pandemic - all this can really be a field of interaction both in our territories and on the scale of the countries of the Non-Aligned Movement.

- Armenia talks a lot and remember the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921, in which Turkey and Russia take responsibility for protecting the Azerbaijani autonomy of Nakhchivan from the threat of a third party. At the same time, neither Turkey, nor Russia, nor Azerbaijan at the official level remember this historical document, they do not refer to it. Is this contract dead? Is its implementation impossible today? What does the citation of this document by Armenians mean?

- The tendency is that the old agreements and the previous legal base are trying not to update as much as possible. However, if we replace it with new ones, then where it meets the realities, such as the problem of the status of the Caspian after the collapse of the USSR. In each case, there is a lot of individuality. The borders in the Caucasus were fixed by new agreements after the formation of the post-Soviet states, in real diplomacy they rely on this fact. First of all, for the sake of stability. As far as discussions in the plane of public opinion are concerned, any twists and turns are possible. But the distance to the program for action is long.

- Baku and Yerevan accuse each other of aggression regarding the interpretation of the military clash on July 12-14. How do you see the cause of the military clash in the Tovuz area?

- The Armenian command deliberately aggravated the border incident, thereby provoking battles. This is an understandable tactic, they were waiting for any minor incident on the neutral part, preferably on the internationally recognized state border, in order to drag Baku into battles and accuse it of aggression. It is clear that Azerbaijan has no sense to attack the territory of Armenia. On the other hand, this is a reason to strengthen propaganda and declarative victory. Hence the article of Pashinyan, where he immediately presents an ultimatum to Baku and sends a message to external observers. The logic is that the Azerbaijani president is threatening us with the capture of Yerevan, and now he has taken action ... But there is no result. The negotiations will take place in the mode of formal communication between the departments, until the next period of decreasing escalation.-0-