This is a very unpleasant reminder of how the Russian bear can cause trouble

(Interview  Dr. David C. Cuthell, Adjunct Associate Prof. Columbia University with Turan news agency)

Question: How would you comment incidents on the contact line in Karabakh, the most bloody over the last 20 years since cease-fire agreement was signed? How real is a threat that military clashes will lead to a new war?

Answer: I find the recent heating up of the frozen NG conflict to be no coincidence with the Russian aggressions against the Ukraine. The passive response by Europe to the annexation has emboldened Moscow to look to cause trouble along a wide range of fronts, in this case that of NG. Everyone knows that Armenia is the most dependent  former state on Russian financial and military aid. When Putin says "jump" Armenia says "how high?" With this in mind, I believe that this is a Russian effort to intimidate the Azerbaijani government. In this regard, there are some recent developments within Azerbaijan that suggests the government is listening to these threats. This is unfortunate. However, I do not see the Armenians starting a full scale war. Their recent aggression is designed to perform service to Moscow.

Question:May we hope that international community won’t be treating this conflict as a “frozen” one any more?

Answer: I would hope that the international community sees the current aggression for what it is, namely Moscow returning to pull the strings and bring Azerbaijan closer to a Russian orbit. The danger here is that the international community does not clearly see Putin's real goal of raising the level of fear among all of its neighbors. This is a high stakes game of poker and it is imperative that Ukraine and Azerbaijan do not blink but instead continue to deepen their ties with the world outside of the Russian orbit as defined by the old USSR. The Azerbaijani government has done an excellent job of broadening it business, security and cultural contacts during the past two decades and it would be a disaster to move back in time.

Question: What role of the EU, Western community you see in the settlement process? And more, these incidents should definitely affect the plans of international mediators to hold a new meeting of the presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan. To your opinion, what should be done to stop violence on the contact line and push a peace process forward?

Answer: As for the final two questions, I would answer the first by saying that international mediation is key. This can come from the UN, the EU, the U.S. or even the neighboring countries of Turkey and Georgia. However, all of this is dependent on the Armenians wanting to come to the table. At present this is doubtful as Moscow is clearly calling all the shots in Yerevan. Azerbaijan can do everything to effect a settlement except that key factor which is brining in Yerevan. Putin has, in effect, returned his playbook to Cold War actions. Until outside sanctions really begin to hurt his pocket book, this old KGB operative will continue to us the USSR playbook. 80% of Russians think he is doing the right thing. Outside of Russia this approval ratio would be 80% against.

In closing, I would repeat that the options and avenues of approach to the present flare up with Armenia are fairly few and not very likely. The puppet master in Moscow will use the Armenian government as a vehicle to support his own popularity at home. This is a disaster for Yerevan. For Baku, this is a very unpleasant reminder of how the Russian bear can cause trouble. That being said, Azerbaijan is not where it was twenty years ago. The people, the economy and the sense of national identity are strong enough to meet this challenge. That cannot be said for the internally contradicted states of Russia and its regional proxy, Armenia.-0-

L.Huseynzade