CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE

"None fortress can compare with people"s trust".
(Napoleon)

Not so long ago most people thought that nothing threatens the ruling regime in Azerbaijan, and that the members of Aliyevs" family will stay in power for a long time. Being asked when the regime will collapse, most say that either when oil in the Caspian Sea dries up, or when bottomless patience of our people runs out.
But judging by all, the patience of our people can run out earlier than oil, because lately the ruling regime has made so many mistakes, and has so many real enemies in and beyond the country that it will be impossible to stop the process of lessening the power"s authority and growing protesting mood of population.
Demonstrative challenge to expectations of the West, "cold wars" with Turkey and USA, permanent pressing of the Iranian problem, growing increase in prices, inflation and deficit of budget, increasing collisions inside the power, large-scale corruption, and social polarization in society, frank ignoring of vital problems of society - it take place on the background of strengthening of contradictions, legal arbitrariness and social indignation ... Are not they symptoms of the regime"s system crisis?
The same people which voted for stability of this power, has faced now incredible social contrasts, unreasonable prices and arbitrariness of officials, and now people want to cry: the devil takes everything with its vaunted pseudo-stability. The same business elite ( local and foreign) , as well as some average structures of population who used to praise the regime for giving the opportunity for normal living and enriching, now under permanent legal mess and corruption think with concern about the future, and damn the power.
Society does not forgive mistakes of any regime, even neo-monarchy regime , for the mistakes of the power which demonstratively distances from vital problems of people, their interests and opinions. Such regime cannot stop making mistakes, because it has become a system peculiarity of the regime: self-confidence, legal nihilism, ignoring public opinion, and insatiable thirst for enrichment.
As a result of all these mistakes, the regime is deprived of any social basis , and looks like a colossus on clayed legs. Despite the statements of supporters of despotic form and authoritarian style of governing, the experience of mankind, and even confessions of great dictators prove that the best guarantee to keep power are not force or riches; the main thing is a factor of confidence and people"s support.
But we observe swift narrowing of social basis of the regime"s support. Despite growing repressive (police sticks) and financial ("oil-dollar pies") possibilities of the regime, due to its anti-people policy and internal collisions, the present regime has antagonized the whole society against itself. By inconsistent decisions and systematic mistakes the regime has lost people"s support, and social basis in all structures which have been loyal to it (political, economic and regional circles.)
By the way, ex-president Heydar Aliyev never restricted the protection of his regime only by traditional punitive or financial resources. He paid attention to the people"s confidence, and relied on complicated and many-structural system of political, economic, social and regional support created by him : the ruling elite and the parties supporting it, large and medium-size business circles, creative intelligentsia , tribal and family-clan groups, foreign lobbying, etc. Broad network of supporting groups and own political skill with necessary charisma gave him an opportunity to maneuver skillfully, to warn tension, and not use often the "carrot-and-stick policy." Heydar Aliyev can hardly be called a national leader: he is not good for this role neither procedurally (he has not been elected legitimately) , nor conceptually ( he did not carry out a common national policy.) But he was a real politician reflecting interests of certain groups, with concrete social roots, well protecting him , and could react in time to any threats.
Contrary to him, from the very outset Ilham Aliyev declared a noble and democratic task: to become a common national leader and a president for every citizen of Azerbaijan. Formally, he tried to overcome evident social, political, regional and other problems caused by his father"s policy. It seemed that the party, regional, social and previous clan motivation really play low role in his state and personnel policy. In fact, relying only on force and money, and depending on his entourage, narrow oligarchy nomenclature and his own caprices, he did not manage to become a common national leader , or a president for every Azerbaijani. As a result, he considerably narrowed and restricted social basis of the regime. Now it is possible to say that the regime not only has lost the confidence of society, but it has lost also support of most of people who used to be an outpost of the power, or used to be loyal to it. Now the regime has only two supports: stick and carrot: it is more a real stick , than an imitation carrot.
By constant kickbacks, legal arbitrariness, unreasonable increasing prices, large-scale corruption, and aggressive monopolism the regime managed to antagonize almost the whole "nomenclature" business , including people working in this sphere. The main economic task of the regime is not making reforms, but getting their interest from the business. For the present regime the control over economy and the business sphere is like during medieval times: impudent levy of money. And the regime uses all permitted and prohibited methods, including police, secret services, courts, etc. And when the interests of two competing business structures come into collision, each business structure has to pay a bribe, so that the state support it: those who pay more can have a rest for some time.
In fact, the regime has created over business sphere a system of illegal kickback - special structures and a class of people who always extort money and sent it to the top. Of course such people are loyal to the regime, because they understand that under other regimes they will hardly be able to collect such sums. In fact, it is a class of feudal over people and business. Under such conditions of state-gangsterism there cannot be any "class peace" between business and racketeering power. Small business which is at its last gasp does not conceal its dissatisfaction. Large business does not express its indignation loudly. But as soon as a power-changing ghost appears, most part of large business will not stay aside.
The regime attacks not only business sphere, but all and everything from whom it is possible to take money, property, rights, freedom, honor and dignity. In other words, the regime attacks the whole country, people and the whole society. By denomination of currency and the following shocking increase of prices for energy resources, and other tariffs, the ruling regime has provided for itself a trouble-free transportation of money from the pockets of citizens and enterprises to its insatiable stomach, and by this antagonized the whole society. It is a striking thing: the country has swollen from oil dollars, but the wages are not increased, and living standards is lowering constantly. Oil billions are embezzled demonstratively for different infrastructural and decorative miracle-projects (pompous fountains, attractions, palaces, parks, bridges, hotels, etc. Thousands of people have lost their homes and properties because of the flood, have not receive compensation, and are deprived of the state"s elementary attention. This is real paradox of our life. Business pragmatically assesses its relations with power , and waits for the moment to sting, but people do not have a skill to make assessments, and can sting at any moment, when its patience runs out. The attitude to the power is based not on realities, but on feelings , instincts of self-preservation and biological survival.
Today there is only one social group which supports the regime. This group is called state racketeers, or strongmen because they fulfill both these functions. And this privileged estate is a basis of fragile of the regime. This is a part of the ruling nomenclature which has concentrated in its hands the functions of strongmen and state racketeers who systematically embezzle the country at the regime"s order. These people have received secretly privileges of feudal, part of them has been fixed on paper, but most part has not. These people are their families, friends, relatives, or hirelings - this is social basis of the regime. Are not they symptoms of the system crisis of power?
The power collapses not because of strong opposition, but because it becomes weak, is deprived of political perspective, and real social basis in society. Our regime in its present form does not have a serious perspective: it is not possible to exist in the 21st century only thank to oil dollars, police sticks and temporarily support of Moscow or Washington. Neo-monarchy project did not work, and could, or did not want to transform into something more modern and legal. Everybody in the country and abroad begin to understand it . The regime dooms to collapse not only itself, but also its people: it will hardly be able to turn into a political system with human face.
Symptoms of system crisis permanently grow, and the regime"s collapse is unavoidable due to unavoidable foreign and internal collapse. What will come instead of the present regime depends on the availability of strong opposition and civil activity: similar anti-people regime №2 , or more or less sane democratic power able to convert from life "according to ideas" to the life according to law.

Zafar Guliyev