G20 likely to approve grain deal

On September 4, as projected by the  analysis provided by the Turan agency, an anticipated exchange of perspectives regarding the "Black Sea initiative" grain deal transpired between the Presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The dialogue between the two leaders signals a notable shift in Moscow's stance, aligning with a more cooperative outlook.

In a pivotal interaction, President Putin extended a conciliatory gesture to President Erdogan, asserting, "I am aware that you intend to broach the subject of the grain deal today. We remain receptive to discussions concerning this matter." The Russian President's statement, however, shouldn't be hastily construed as an unreciprocated eagerness for negotiations. Preceding the exchange, UN Secretary-General António Guterres forwarded proposals to President Putin, a move ostensibly tailored to accommodate Russia's preferences. While Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov voiced reservations about Guterres' overture, it has come to light that counter-offers were extended to meet Russia's stipulations concerning unhindered exports of agricultural produce and fertilizers.

Following a prior visit to Moscow by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who characterized the discussions as an endeavor to gain deeper insights into Russia's positions and needs, it's evident that consultations are an ongoing process aimed at mutual understanding and satisfaction. Lavrov, in a significant diplomatic gesture, handed Fidan a roster of conditions necessitating Western actions to facilitate the resumption of Ukrainian Black Sea exports. A pivotal juncture is anticipated on September 9-10, during the G20 summit in New Delhi.

Forecasts underscore the viability of the Black Sea initiative's revival. The primary impetus stems from the fact that despite impediments rooted in transport and insurance restrictions, Russia has managed to actualize record wheat exports, exceeding 60 million tons since the preceding year. Concurrently, fertilizer exports have witnessed a resurgence, aligning with levels observed prior to the conflict.

It's noteworthy that measures intended to pressure Russia, such as the obstruction of the ammonia pipeline transiting Ukraine and the estrangement of Rosselkhoznadzor, a specialized agriculture entity, from the SWIFT international payment system, haven't yielded their anticipated effects.

Additionally, the ramifications of not restoring the Black Sea initiative hold significant consequences for Ukraine's grain exports. Last year, these exports aggregated over 48 million tons, with comparable expectations for the current year.

Significantly, recent developments in Africa—characterized by a series of coups and a burgeoning belt of instability encompassing nations sympathetic to Russia—add another layer of incentive for finding common ground between the Western powers and Russia. Erdogan, positioned to present the outcomes of his discussions with Putin to G20 summit participants, buoyantly opined that the outcome of this meeting would signify "a stride towards global progress, especially for developing African nations." This optimistic outlook underscores the potential for diplomatic progress in the aftermath of the Sochi meeting.