The geopolitical basis of Armenia is unlikely to change

"What's next?" ask people in Azerbaijan. Some part of the Azerbaijani society is sure that Sargsyan, as the executor of the will of Russia, this time acted by the order of Russia; he left his post in order not to raise the anti-Russian revolution in Armenia. Akif Nagi, the chairman of the Union of the Liberation of Karabakh, believes that Sargsyan obeyed Moscow's order; the only question is who Russia will send to Yerevan. And if it is so, the Karabakh situation will not change.

Do not deceive yourself, it is necessary to start a war, says A. Nagi. Moreover, the socialist Rustam Shahsuvarov predicts an escalation of tension in Armenia, when the winner, Pashinyan, will demand the leaving of the "the entire demoralized regime of long-bored and corrupt Karabakh people."

Political scientist, Ilgar Velizade, emphasizing the paralysis of the entire Armenian political system as a result of the attack of the non-systemic opposition, also awaits new Armenian victims. "There will be more victims, there will be political bargaining, they will seek early parliamentary elections, real actors will start to appear from behind the scenes, it is only just beginning."

Armenia will follow the path of legitimizing the coup. The political scientist and MP, Rasim Musabekov, expects that extraordinary meeting of the country's parliament can accept the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, which they will try to present as a voluntary step on his part to preserve civil peace and harmony, in the name of Karabakh. The Russian creature in the person of Karen Karapetyan will return from the chair of the vice-premier to the recently left chair of the head of government. This will suit Moscow, and the West. Then the traditional mass march in Armenia, to be held in Armenia on April 24 in connection with the anniversary of the so-called "genocide", will be peaceful. However, whether such a concession from the ruling oligarchy will be sufficient and whether Nikol Pashinyan will calm down on this, will show the further course of events. But the version of the bloody denouement from the agenda has not been lifted, although it seems difficult to implement, Musabekov wrote in the social network.

The British Tom de Waal, author of the famous book "Black Garden", who studies the Caucasian issues, admits from Kiev, that, being a month ago in Armenia, he was wrong, arguing that the changes there can only be initiated "from above."

"It is also important to note that there is no systemic opposition in Armenia. It is a crowd of young people that does not belong to parties and is barely represented in parliament. Now that Armenia is again a parliamentary republic, the biggest problem is the Republican Party of dinosaurs in Parliament. As in Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, the problem is the synthesis of high politics and big business. Parliamentary elections are extremely necessary, but the opposition has neither the structure nor the party to organize victory in elections," the British analyst writes.

Calling the perpetrators of the systemic crisis in Armenia "the criminal types and marauding veterans of Karabakh who took over the economy, ignoring the needs of the public," Tom de Waal discusses the similarity between Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Both left the post, refusing to fight against the people.

In March, the Armenian officials told Tom de Waal that Serge did not really want to become prime minister, preferring to lead the country from behind the scenes, giving this place to another. But there was no obvious nomination, and Sargsyan took the post of prime minister. In this, the analyst sees the reason for the easy resignation of the head of the Karabakh clan.

The geopolitical foundations of Armenia are unlikely to change. There will be a consensus on foreign policy, a tough line on Nagorno Karabakh will be maintained.

"Armenia needs an alliance with Russia. Serge has already begun to diversify foreign policy on the basis of a deal with the EU, expanding the participation of the diaspora in the Armenian economy. The new government will not protest against the Russian military in Armenia, although of course it will oppose the monopoly of the Russian economy," Tom de Waal said.