Journalist Pashinyan May Be More Hawk than Sargsyan

April 24 in Armenia is the so-called Day of Silence, when the Armenians are in sorrow, remembering those killed in the Armenian-Turkish war. Continuation of the "velvet revolution" will begin on April 25. Wherever it leads the Armenians entirely depends on the personality, character and political convictions of the leader of the revolution, the MP from the small faction The Exit Nikol Pashinyan.

Let"s briefly go through his biography. Nikol Pashinyan was born in the Armenian city of Ijevan on June 1, 1975. In 1991-1995 he studied journalism at the Yerevan State University. From 1993 to 1999 he was a correspondent for the newspapers Drutun, Lragir, and Molorak, founder and editor-in-chief of Oragir, editor-in-chief of Haykakan Zhamanak. In 1999, Oragir was closed by the authorities (R. Kocharyan), and Pashinyan became the editor-in-chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper, also an opposition one. Several times he was prosecuted on charges of "slander and insults" on claims of high-ranking officials and businessmen.

Since 2007, he actively engaged in politics, speaking against the Karabakh clan. In the 2007 parliamentary elections, Pashinyan was the first number on the list of the Impeachment bloc, which demanded the resignation of President Robert Kocharyan and Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. The bloc took the 12th place, gaining 1.29% of the vote (more than 17 thousand voters). Nikol Pashinyan called the election results falsified and demanded to appoint new elections.

In 2008, he was a member of the pre-election headquarters of the presidential candidate Levon Ter-Petrosyan. After the riots on March 1-2, 2008, he was declared wanted in Yerevan. In 2009 he surrendered to the authorities. In January 2010, he was sentenced to 7 years on charges of organizing riots. Later, the court halved the term, and in May 2011 he was released on an amnesty in honor of the 20th anniversary of Armenia's independence. After the liberation he actively joined the political activities of the Armenian National Congress (Levon Ter-Petrosyan) and became the leader of all 20 rallies held by the ANC in 2011.

In 2012 he was elected to the National Assembly of Armenia by the proportional electoral system from the Armenian National Congress party bloc. Since 2013 he was a member of the Civil Contract. Since 2016 he was a member of the party Elk. In 2017 he was elected a deputy of the National Assembly of Armenia from Elk. In September 2017 he ran for the post of mayor of Yerevan and took the second place, gaining 21% of the vote.

In his statements on Russia, there are clearly visible complaints about the revision of the nature of the Armenian-Russian relations, in which the parties should be equal partners. Pashinyan stated that Armenia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) "not voluntarily, but forcedly." He described the relations between Russia and Armenia as "the relationship between the speaker and the hearer." He criticized President Serzh Sargsyan on the issue of Armenia's defense, which, he said, "lost in the issue of military balance with Azerbaijan with the support and intervention of our strategic partner - the Russian Federation."

Pashinyan advocated for the presence of the Karabakh authorities in the negotiations concerning this territory. He said that in order not to repeat the April events, Azerbaijan should be inflicted such damage "that we could have guarantees that the Azerbaijani authorities and Aliyev will not be able to come out of the shock for at least a year".

MP Nikol Pashinyan stated that peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict is impossible today. He stressed that, first of all, we must seriously realize the current situation around the Karabakh issue and understand what happened. "There was a violation of the balance of power, as Azerbaijan bought weapons for $ 7 billion not to make concessions. We are told that once Azerbaijan bought weapons for $7 billion, dear people, let's surrender. We say, no, not so, we must restore the balance of military forces by changing the structure of spending on the army, forming a military-industrial complex. Today, the situation presupposes a military solution, and a peaceful solution is not possible," Pashinyan said from the rostrum of the National Assembly in 2017.

A Karabakh journalist Vahram Aghajanyan describes Pashinyan as his colleague in the profession (exclusively for Turan):

"Nikol has always spoken from the national-democratic positions, and one cannot say that he is a clearly expressed supporter of the West. Now he clearly understands the important role of Russia. In addition, we also understand that the leaders of our countries are appointed or removed with the approval of the three capitals. If these capitals did not approve of Serge's resignation, he would resist until he was blue, this too must be understood, knowing his stubbornness and self-destructive greed. As for Nikol himself, he is not a bad guy; at least he was like that. The most interesting things will begin on April 25. It is early to talk about Nikol"s and all the revolutionaries" foreign policy preferences, but they all come out with an emphatically national-democratic position. Moreover, it is too early to speak of the victory of the revolution. We will wait for tomorrow, when the most interesting process begins - Nikol will meet with Karen Karapetyan, a Gazprom man, and demand complete and unconditional transfer of power. That is, they require the complete withdrawal of the ruling Republican Party, as a simple change of leaders does not suit them. A real confrontation will begin tomorrow, as the RPA does not want to surrender. Then we will know exactly who is who and whether it is true that Nikol is clearing the path for someone," Vahram Aghajanyan wrote in a letter to Turan.

The Yerevan blogger of the Caucasian Knot shared his opinion about Pashinyan's personality and attitude towards Russia:

- A change of the head of state can change the situation, but the probability of this is very small. Armenia is very dependent on stable relations with Moscow. Nikol Pashinyan did not address foreign policy issues in his speeches - and not only during the protests, but also before that. This person is rather strongly concentrated on the internal political problems. From this there are two consequences: Pashinyan's motivation for foreign policy is low, and the society did not give him a mandate for changes in foreign policy. Because if he announced that one of the priorities is to change foreign policy alliances and to refuse of the union with Moscow, then at least the number of participants would be substantially smaller.

The question arises if Russia could react positively to the revolution with unknown consequences. The answer is obvious - no. The next question is if Russia can now be worried about what will happen and if its interests will be completely excluded. The answer in this case is also negative - not only because the circumstances that I described above remain in force, but also because the Russian leadership knows something that gives them full confidence in the absence of future problems.

Summing up and taking into account all the above, I think that for Moscow neither Sargsyan"s resignation, nor the foreign policy course that will be held after it, is a surprise. Russia does not fear for its foreign policy ties with Armenia, and this can only happen if there are serious guarantees that there will not be any news in this sense, the Yerevan blogger writes.

Kamal Ali