Results of Brussels: Not a step forward

In Brussels, the parties agreed to start preparing a future peace treaty, create a joint border commission for the delimitation and demarcation of the border (DDB), as well as the prevention of border incidents. Once again, the issue of opening communications was discussed, first of all, the 42-kilometer section of the railway that runs through Armenia.

The creation of a border commission does not mean at all that Armenia and Azerbaijan will conduct a DDB in a short time, which is an important part of a large peace agreement. For a year and a half since the end of the war, the parties have not been able to implement the provisions of the peace statement of November 9-10, 2020 regarding the unblocking of communications. Although, for this purpose, on January 11, 2021, an Armenian-Russian-Azerbaijani working group was created for the restoration and construction of new transport infrastructure facilities necessary for organizing international transportation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and through Armenia and Azerbaijan. It was headed by the vice-premiers of the three countries.

The DDB process was initially blocked by Armenia. On August 24, 2021, Pashinyan, presenting the government's five-year action program in parliament, expressed confidence in the need to launch the delimitation and demarcation of borders with Azerbaijan as quickly as possible. However, he went on to say: "I regret that due to the political noise it was not possible to achieve the planned result in the spring." He meant blocking this issue by the opposition during the pre-election period. The EU had already offered to provide technical assistance to start the DDB process. And this issue was periodically raised in the course of EU initiatives to achieve peace between countries. The first official agreements to start the DDB process were reached on November 26, 2021 in Sochi through the mediation of Putin.

Once the joint DDB commission is formed, this process could take many years if political will is not shown. In reality, we are seeing clear differences of interest between the parties on the issue of DDB and unblocking communications. Azerbaijan, which has restored its territorial integrity, wants to consolidate the results by recognizing the borders, unblocking communications, and signing a peace agreement. Armenia, on the other hand, perceives the realization of these goals as a renunciation of claims to the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh and recognition of the realization of the rights of Armenians within the framework of the Azerbaijani state.

At a time when Aliyev and Pashinyan were preparing to shake hands to consolidate the EU initiative on DDB and communications, an opposition rally was taking place in Yerevan, which torpedoed the Brussels agreements with the following points of its resolution:

- exclude any status of Artsakh (the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh - ed.) as part of Azerbaijan,

- exclude the provision of corridors under the pretext of unblocking communications at the expense of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia,

- not to sign any agreements with Azerbaijan that impede the realization of Artsakh's right to self-determination without restrictions.

It would be erroneous to assume that this approach is only the opposition's political view of the problem. In a veiled form, the same position is taken by the ruling party. In general, the politically active part of the Armenian society adheres to the strategy of dragging out negotiations and consultations with Azerbaijan on this issue. The calculation is based on a possible change in the geopolitical situation in the world and the region, which may create a chance for revenge. Armenian politicians have been talking about this since the first day of the end of the 44-day war, and as we see, this line has a continuation. The Russian-Ukrainian war could turn out to be such a chance. The Armenian authorities and the opposition hastened to demonstrate their support for Russia in order to persuade Moscow towards pro-Armenian actions in the region. But in the Kremlin, on the eve and after the Brussels meeting, they made it clear that the Ukrainian and Karabakh directions have differentiated cause-and-effect relationships and Russia is not interested in revising the results of the 44-day war, and adheres to post-war agreements and DDB and communications.

On April 8, while receiving his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted: “There are three groups of agreements reached at the highest level in November 2020, January and November 2021 on the Karabakh settlement. And we will continue to ensure the implementation of these agreements, including the activities of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh in strict accordance with its mandate.”

This was his diplomatic response to Mirzoyan’s statement: “We are confident that the effective activities of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, ensuring the security of the people of Artsakh, will serve the interests of strengthening the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh and preventing provocations, restoring normal life, ensuring stability and security in our region".